How many of China’s nearly 1.4 billion people are in debt?

Currently, the country does not have relevant statistics on this aspect, but we can use some data to infer how many people are in debt.

Per capita loan size

According to data released by the People's Bank of China, as of the end of 2018, my country's commercial banks had loans of 141.75 trillion yuan. Of course, a large part of this loan was for enterprises and institutions. Loans for units and loans for domestic residents are not as high. According to the 2018 Statistical Yearbook, at the end of 2018, the scale of my country's resident loans reached 47.9 trillion yuan, of which medium and long-term consumer loans were 29.0 trillion yuan, accounting for 61%.

Medium and long-term loans are 29 trillion, mainly housing loans, decoration loans, etc. The scale of housing loans is generally larger, but considering the repayment time of housing loans, some have high balances and some have low balances. When combined with other medium and long-term loans other than housing loans, we take the average of 300,000 yuan, then it is approximately: 29 trillion/300,000 yuan = 966.67 million people.

After deducting medium and long-term loans, there are still 18.9 trillion short-term loans. Short-term loans include various types of credit loans, consumer loans, credit card overdrafts, etc. This amount is relatively small. We take the average value of 50,000. Yuan, then the number of people in debt is approximately: 18.9 trillion/50,000 = 378 million people.

That is to say, based on the loan balance of commercial banks, the number of people currently in debt is about 480 million. Don’t think it is small. You must know that the age for banks to lend is generally over 18 years old and 60 years old. After deducting the elderly, the weak, the sick and the young (there were 222 million people over 60 in 2015), the number of young adults who can actually borrow money is only about 1 billion, and nearly half of them are in debt.

The scale of commercial housing in my country

There are currently very few people in China who can buy a house with full payment, estimated to account for less than 1% of the total population. From 2005 to 2017 alone, my country’s The sales area of ??commercial housing has exceeded 1.2 million square meters. Based on the average mortgage loan of 20 years, the area of ??commercial housing sales from 2000 to 2019 is estimated to exceed 1.5 million square meters. Calculated based on 100 square meters per unit, then* ** Total: 1.5 million square meters/100 square meters = 150 million units, so in terms of housing loans alone, at least 150 million people are in debt.

Credit cards, Huabei and Jiebei

There is no recent data for Huabei. What can be found so far is November 2016. Vice President of Ant Financial Group and President of MYbank Data revealed by Yu Shengfa during an interview with reporters: As of November 2016, the number of users who have opened Ant Huabei has exceeded 100 million, and the number of actual users has reached nearly 80 million. You must know that Huabei was only launched in 2015, so It is estimated that Huabei will have at least 200-300 million users by this year.

What about the bank’s credit card? As of the end of the third quarter of 2018, the number of bank cards in use across the country was 7.385 billion, an increase of 2.75% from the previous quarter. Among them, the number of debit cards in use was 6.726 billion, a month-on-month increase of 2.69%; the number of credit cards and debit and credit cards in use was 659 million, a month-on-month increase of 3.36%. There are 5.31 bank cards per capita in the country, of which 0.47 credit cards are held per capita.

The total amount of credit card credit was 14.69 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%. The average credit limit of cards was 22,300 yuan, and the credit utilization rate was 74.53%. That is to say, there are 659 million credit cards, 489 million of which are in use. Although it is not ruled out that some people have two or three credit cards in their names, overall, there are at least 300 to 400 million users of credit cards.

Others

There are many other credit loans involved, such as P2P loans, private loans, various online loans, and auto finance company loans (the scale of auto finance assets in 2017 was 700 billion or so), and various unknown types of 714 anti-aircraft guns, etc. Because in reality not everyone can borrow money from banks, and banks’ loan requirements are too strict, the scale of loans from the above-mentioned non-bank channels is estimated to be quite large. We conservatively calculate this group of people at 100 million, so the number of indebted people in our country should be There are about 600 million people. After excluding the elderly, the weak, the sick, the disabled and the young who cannot get loans, the debt ratio of the remaining young and middle-aged people is estimated to be over 60%.

To sum up, it is normal to have debts in China, but it is abnormal not to have debts. As an old saying goes, many people spend the first half of their lives fighting for banks and the second half of their lives fighting for hospitals. That’s why Wanda moved away from real estate and moved into the medical industry.