1. What is the biggest reason for the financial decline?
Financial crisis refers to all or most of the financial indicators (such as: short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (prices), number of commercial bankruptcies and financial crisis in a country or several countries and regions). sharp, short-lived and super-cyclical deterioration in the number of institutional failures. It is characterized by people's expectations that the economy will be more pessimistic in the future. The currency value of the entire region has depreciated significantly, the total economic volume and economic scale have suffered greater losses, and economic growth has been hit. It is often accompanied by the collapse of a large number of companies, increased unemployment, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or turmoil at the national political level. Financial crises can be divided into currency crises, debt crises, banking crises and other types. The financial crisis in recent years has increasingly taken on the form of a mixed crisis - Lehman Brothers, a financial giant with more than 150 years of history, finally failed to hold on in this precarious season and filed for bankruptcy. The dismal end made the Chinese people re-evaluate the "subprime mortgage crisis" on the other side of the ocean. Affected by this incident, Chinese bank stocks fell by the limit yesterday, including China Merchants Bank. Today, China Merchants Bank issued an announcement on its holdings of Lehman Brothers bonds. Even if all the bonds held are lost, it will only affect earnings per share of 0.0324 yuan per share, which is a very small substantive impact. But it remains to be seen whether psychologically fragile investors will treat it rationally. "Lehman Brothers is facing bankruptcy!" - This news has an immediate impact on the global stock market, but its impact may have just begun to appear! Following Huaan Fund Company’s announcement yesterday that its Huaan International Allocation Fund was affected by the Lehman Brothers incident, today China Merchants Bank (600036, closing price 16.07 yuan) also announced that it was affected by Lehman Brothers. The announcement stated that the company holds US Lehman The bonds issued by the brothers totaled $70 million. Industry insiders pointed out that in the face of yesterday's bank stocks all falling by the limit, the release of this unfavorable news may be amplified by the market. The substantive impact is limited. Today, China Merchants Bank announced that as of the announcement date, the company held a total of US$70 million in bond exposures issued by Lehman Brothers in the United States, including US$60 million in senior bonds and US$10 million in subordinated bonds. . The announcement also stated that the company will evaluate the risks of the above-mentioned bonds and withdraw corresponding impairment provisions in accordance with the principle of prudence. 70 million US dollars - equivalent to approximately 477 million yuan when converted into RMB. How much impact will this number have on China Merchants Bank? If China Merchants Bank makes a 10% impairment provision on the bonds issued by Lehman Brothers, the loss will be 47.7 million yuan. Calculated based on the total share capital of China Merchants Bank of 14.707 billion shares, the impact on earnings per share will only be 0.0032 yuan per share; if China Merchants Bank accrues 50% of bad debt provisions for US$70 million, the impact on earnings per share will be only 0.0162 yuan / share; even if we make the worst-case scenario and fully accrue bad debts for the US$70 million, the impact will only be 0.0324 yuan per share. This figure is obviously compared with the 0.9 yuan per share of China Merchants Bank in the mid-term of this year. The proportion is quite small. Therefore, analysts at National Securities believe that although China Merchants Bank has not made corresponding impairment provisions for the bonds held by Lehman Brothers, even if this incident is prepared for the worst, the substantive impact on China Merchants Bank will be quite limited.
The market may have overreacted, "The substantial impact is limited!" This is the evaluation of industry insiders on China Merchants Bank's involvement in the Lehman Brothers incident, but will the market treat it rationally?
2. Why does the financial market crisis lead to the decline of futures?
The financial crisis will directly affect the industrial economy, causing a decline in the industrial economy and reduced market demand, which will affect the supply and demand relationship of commodities, causing futures prices to fall and thus affecting spot prices
3. What is the biggest reason for the financial decline?
The main reason is that U.S. banks or financial institutions have long issued large amounts of loans to individuals and institutions with only subprime credit ratings (poor repayment ability and unstable income) , coupled with the gradual decline of the U.S. economy, the income levels of these individuals and institutions have gradually declined, resulting in a gradual decline in repayment capabilities. Over time, a large number of inability to repay loans on time has occurred, causing banks to be unable to receive the money they should receive and encounter difficulties. Therefore, subprime mortgages The crisis triggered a financial crisis. Therefore, a large number of banks and financial investment institutions collapsed, and the chain reaction affected the economic decline of relevant countries around the world and the run on financial institutions, which spread into the global financial crisis.
4. What are the causes of the financial crisis?
1. The financial crisis was caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime housing credit crisis refers to the shock, panic and crisis in the international financial market that began in the summer of 2007 due to the sharp increase in defaults and credit crunch in the U.S. subprime housing credit industry. Subprime mortgages are loans provided by some lenders to borrowers with poor credit and low income.
2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which originally accounted for 70% of the U.S. subprime loan market, were dominated by government agencies, packaging loans into securities, and calculating the financial risks behind loan securitization. It is quite complicated. Usually, you have to first analyze the risks of similar loan cases in the past of the bunch of loan cases being securitized, and calculate the principal and interest rate that investors can obtain. Throughout the process, new market participants excessively pursued high-risk loans out of profit-seeking purposes.
3. Due to the intervention of thousands of hedge funds, pension funds and other fund investors with high risk appetite around the world, the original lending standards have become a piece of paper in the face of high interest rates. There are many Chinese companies in the United States. Small banks, because they have limited funds and don’t want to wait twenty years to collect their mortgage loans, are willing to resell their mortgage debt, and banks are also eager to lend out money otherwise they will be overwhelmed by interest payments.
4. New market participants and Wall Street dealers continue to encourage lenders to try different loan types. Many lenders do not even require subprime borrowers to provide proof of financial qualifications, including tax forms. When doing home value appraisals, lenders also rely more on mechanical computer programs rather than the appraiser's conclusions, potentially risking Just buried deep in the subprime loan market.
5. As a result, all or most of the financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions deteriorate sharply, briefly and super-cyclically. The credit crunch that often follows is a situation in which the demand for money grows rapidly greater than the supply of money. A few decades ago, financial crises were basically equivalent to runs, but now they mostly take the form of currency crises. A stock market crash is sometimes a financial crisis.