Everything should be treated rationally.

on December 24th, according to the report, the State Administration of Market Supervision filed an investigation on Alibaba Group Holding Co., Ltd.' s "two-in-one" and other suspected monopolistic behaviors. At present, as soon as this matter comes out, it has already boarded the hot search in the first time.

Ma Yun and Alibaba are really unlucky. First, the listing of Ant Group was suspended, then the construction of Lakeside University was suspended, and now they are suspected of monopoly. Ma Yun also changed from a hero admired and admired by young people to an evil "capitalist" overnight.

In a recent public speech by Ma Yun, the "Father Ma" that people used to shout has turned into "capitalist" and "vampire", and all kinds of voices of opposition are endless. What people spit out the most is the "996 is a blessing" that Ma Yun said the most.

in just half a year, why is the word-of-mouth between Ma Yun and Alibaba so different? How to treat it rationally?

first, there is more than one monopoly, and the expansion of capital will inevitably bring monopoly, which Marx explained more than 2 years ago. Market economy is still an economic form dominated by capital production mode, but in the leading force, the state and public ownership are the deployment forces. If we don't understand this, we will graft the western economic production mode to China, or expand the capital in China in the western way, then there will never be a future.

in BAT, monopoly is an indisputable fact. The competitors of Taobao and Tmall are JD.COM and Pinduoduo, and Alipay has half of the WeChat payment. If you are hungry, it is not as good as Meituan. Shrimp is also surrounded by a large number of software such as Netease and qq music.

The other two companies, one is that after Google withdrew from China, the other monopolized the domestic search engine market. Who doesn't use Baidu in China search engine? Who does not use Baidu every day? There is a second one that has such influence. However, Baidu's user experience is not satisfactory. In the past, small software downloaded from the Internet can be used at any time. Who dares to use small software now? It's all advertisements and all kinds of viruses. As soon as you open the web search, all kinds of liar companies and false advertisements come one after another, and there is also online medical treatment, which is more scary than one.

Tencent focuses on games, chat software and other businesses. Just saying WeChat and QQ is enough for people to live without it every day. However, there are some indiscriminate games in the criticized "king pesticide", which makes many parents very headache and demands to boycott bad games. Isn't this a monopoly?

However, compared with the other two companies, Ma Yun acted too high-profile a few years ago, which is one of the reasons why he was shot in the head.

Second, the times made Ma Yun, not Ma Yun.

Many people think that Ma Yun has changed the times, bringing convenience to life, reform of consumption patterns and prosperity of e-commerce. So the evaluation of him is very high, thinking that he created the miracle of the times, and he once became a hero and an idol in the hearts of teenagers. But many people don't understand that it is the achievements of 4 years of reform and opening up that have created Ma Yun, which is a big background of the times.

Ma Yun's success is made by the times. Most of the people who ate crabs at the beginning of reform and development are successful today. It's not that they can really change history, but just catch up with the wheel of history. If there is no Ma Yun, we will see other Zhang Yun and Liu Yun appear.

Third, a university is not a club, and businessmen can't be bound into a consortium.

Lakeside university only recruits successful businessmen to settle in, but it is not a real university under the signboard of a university. In terms of its form, it is more like a club between businessmen and a private club between rich men. The richest people in the country meet and study together regularly, and people with a little financial resources are recruited one after another.

Businessmen are all profit-seeking, and they can't afford to get up early without profit. What will these people say when they have a meeting together? What will you do? Will interest groups control the capital market and form a big monopoly group? Like American trusts? Even if there is no such idea, what will people outside think? Businessmen are bound together to form a consortium, will they use this to overhead the market and capital?

This is a very dangerous signal. Never touch it, no matter who you are.

Fourth, the achievements of development are obvious to all, and only by strengthening market control can we develop better

For Ma Yun and Alibaba, it has made great contributions to the social development of China. Although word-of-mouth has declined, his contributions to the convenience of payment methods, lifestyle changes, rural teachers and desert management are real.

flower buds are not the culprit of consumption in advance, but people. Even if there are no flower beds, there will be all kinds of credit cards and all kinds of online loans. That situation will be more chaotic and more people will suffer. In recent years, the state has made every effort to crack down on online loans and campus loans, which is why.

However, the nature of capital is profit-seeking. After the reform and opening up, economic development and market supervision are not in place, just like a runaway wild horse, all kinds of competition and disadvantages have begun to appear. It is also common for bad money to drive out good money. If the country wants to rectify the market, it is bound to increase supervision. Ma Yun acted in a high-profile manner, and it was logical for him to start rectification.

rectification is only for better development. China people still want to thank entrepreneurs like Ma Yun for driving social development, but no matter how much an enterprise or an entrepreneur does, they can't challenge the bottom line. They should bring blessings to most people and be modest and prudent. Only in this way can we have a better future and not be regarded as capitalists and vampires.

in my opinion, there are three possibilities for Alibaba's development: it will be completely domestically funded, reorganized and split, or it will eventually go bankrupt. Completely domestic

The best outcome of Alibaba is to be completely domestic or even nationalized. For the current situation of Alibaba, this ending is the most favorable for it.

let's talk about the composition of Alibaba's shares first. I think many people are familiar with Alibaba's entrepreneurial history.

In 1999, Ma Yun founded Alibaba in Hangzhou. In 2, after a 6-minute meeting with Masayoshi Son, Ma Yun got a $2 million investment from Softbank of Japan. Ali also ushered in the first major shareholder, Japan Softbank.

In 25, Alibaba welcomed another major shareholder, Yahoo USA. In 25, Alibaba and Yahoo announced that they had signed a cooperation agreement. Alibaba acquired all the assets of Yahoo China, and at the same time received a $1 billion investment from Yahoo, and enjoyed the exclusive right to use Yahoo's brand and technology in China. Yahoo gets 4% of Alibaba's economic benefits and 35% of the voting rights.

for a long time, Japan's Softbank has been the largest shareholder of Alibaba, while Yahoo USA is the second largest shareholder of Alibaba. These two foreign-funded companies accounted for more than 6% of the shares in Alibaba, so it was no exaggeration for Alibaba at that time to say that it was a foreign-funded company.

however, things turned around in 21.

At that time, the People's Bank of China issued the Measures for the Administration of Payment Services of Non-financial Institutions. In order to obtain the payment license of Alipay, Ma Yun secretly split Alipay from Alibaba, and transferred the equity of Alipay to the purely domestic company "Zhejiang Alibaba E-Commerce Co., Ltd." under his own name, realizing 1% control of domestic enterprises.

this is the famous "AliPay vie incident". For a detailed explanation of this incident, those who are interested can read my article:

If there was no state supervision at the beginning, Ma Yun would have lost control of Alipay! How can there be a chance to talk wildly on the Bund?

Starting from this incident, Yahoo's share in Alibaba kept decreasing until it finally disappeared. As the largest shareholder, Japan's Softbank is also continuously reducing its shareholding in Alibaba.

according to Alibaba's prospectus in 219, among Alibaba's shareholders, Softbank currently holds 25.8%, Jack Ma holds 6.1%, Cai Chongxin holds 2.%, other executives hold .9%, and the public holds 65.2%.

Yahoo, the second largest foreign shareholder, has no stake in Alibaba at present. And Japan's Softbank, the largest foreign shareholder, its shareholding ratio has also dropped sharply, and its influence on Alibaba is completely different from before.

It can be seen that in the development process of more than ten years, Alibaba's management team is constantly diluting and reducing the proportion of foreign capital, and constantly moving closer to full domestic capital.

Everyone knows this truth. With Alibaba's current influence, if it is controlled by foreign capital, its influence on China will be very significant. Therefore, if Alibaba wants to develop continuously in China, domestic investment is an inevitable choice.

even at a critical moment, it is not impossible for Alibaba to be nationalized if necessary. Being reorganized and split

The second trend of Alibaba is that it may be reorganized and split, which is also one of the most severe and effective ways to crack down on monopoly.

22 should be a very difficult year for Ma Yun and Alibaba. In this year, Ma Yun and Alibaba kept negative news and were caught in the whirlpool of public opinion.

First, Ma Yun gave a speech at the Bund Summit. Because of his fierce words, he was criticized by the state media. What followed was that the listing of Ant Financial, which was dominated by Ma Yun and claimed to be "the largest ipo in human history", was stopped by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

ma yun has also experienced a cold world and a warm and cold human feeling. In the past, a large number of young people greatly admired Ma Yun and even affectionately called him "Father Ma". However, Ma Yun, who was in the eyes of the storm, immediately fell from the altar, and the online criticism of Ma Yun was endless. And Ma Yun also disappeared from the public eye for three months, until recently.

As the saying goes, it never rains but it pours. After Ma Yun fell to the altar, Alibaba was investigated by the state for taking the strategy of "choose one from two" in the competition with other e-commerce platforms.

to tell the truth, it's true that Alibaba was put on file for investigation by the state. Because everyone can see how many wars have been waged by Ali and Tencent in the past ten years since the development of Internet in China, and how many unicorn enterprises with great potential have finally declined.

From 3q to taxi fight, from * * * to take-away group buying. Up to now, the Internet in China is no longer the "multipolar pattern" it used to be, but now Tencent and Ali are "divided into two worlds".

according to relevant statistics, at present, there are more than 5 enterprises invested or acquired by Ali in China, and more than 8 enterprises invested or acquired by Tencent. In all fields and industries, there are Ali and Tencent. Their crazy expansion has seriously affected the healthy development of Internet in China, and even affected the normal life of ordinary people.

in many meetings, the state has mentioned "to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital". Ali was put on file for investigation, which should be regarded as a powerful action of the country.

However, monopoly and expansion have always been the original sin of capital.

maybe now, under pressure, the monopoly and expansion of capital have been restrained. However, once the favorable opportunity is seized, monopoly and expansion will continue.

or, blatant monopoly and expansion may be criticized and suppressed. However, the capitalists are very smart and will gradually transfer the monopoly and expansion on the surface to the underground and carry it out in secret.

restructuring and splitting enterprises suspected of serious monopoly is one of the most severe and effective methods.

America leads the world in this area. In the history of the United States, there are many enterprises seriously suspected of monopoly, which were eventually forced to split by the US government. For example, in 1911, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that the American Standard Oil Company was illegal in monopoly, and ordered to dissolve the Standard Oil Company and split it into more than 3 small oil companies.

Although China is in this area at present, there is no clear legislation. However, with the development of time, I believe that China will continue to improve in this area.

once Alibaba really has a serious monopolistic behavior and has a significant impact on the country or people, it is imperative to reorganize and split Alibaba. Final bankruptcy

For Alibaba, final bankruptcy should be its most miserable and desolate ending.

In 24, during the 5th anniversary of Alibaba, founder Ma Yun gave a passionate speech. In his speech, he mentioned that Alibaba will be a company for 12 years, which was born in the last year of the 2th century. If it is completed for 12 years, it will span three centuries, and Alibaba will surely be one of the greatest companies in China.

Whether Ma Yun's brave words can be realized is still unknown.

But it has been 22 years since Ma Yun founded Alibaba in Hangzhou in 1999.

in these 22 years, the e-commerce industry in China has developed rapidly, and the internet industry has also advanced by leaps and bounds. In the tide of e-commerce and Internet development, Alibaba has grown from a little-known company to a giant that now affects China and even the world.

Alibaba's tentacles have reached all industries and fields in China. Whether it is film and television finance or mobile payment; Whether it's travel food or agricultural science and technology, Alibaba's investment can be seen everywhere.

Today's Alibaba has grown into a towering tree. But its own problems are also very serious. First and foremost, it is crazy monopoly and expansion.

On the point of crazy monopoly and expansion, Alibaba has aroused strong dissatisfaction from many people. Last year, the state also launched an investigation in ultimate revenge.

in addition to monopoly and expansion, Alibaba's popular "996 working system" and "forced kpi elimination system at the end" have long been criticized by many people.

Ma Yun's phrase "996 is a blessing" was scolded by many netizens. Alibaba's "compulsory kpi elimination system" was also opposed by many employees and finally had to be cancelled.

Alibaba's management team, despite continuous efforts to recommend the process of Alibaba's localization in recent ten years, has also achieved good results. However, it is still unknown whether the goal can be achieved smoothly in the end.

once Alibaba's nationalization fails and its shares are controlled by foreign capital, it will be subject to stricter supervision. At that time, Alibaba's road will become more and more difficult.

Under the leadership of capital, the original sin of Alibaba's monopoly and expansion, if not,