At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total debt of China residents exceeded 200 trillion yuan, the per capita debt was 1.47 million, and the national savings rate dropped from 5 1.8% to 45%.
The total market value of real estate in China is in the order of 400-500 trillion, so let's calculate it as 450 trillion. The total mortgage loan of 53 trillion yuan is only 12%.
So, can young people with debts bear the future of real estate?
The mortgage problem is not today's problem, but the biggest problem that has plagued many people for a long time. In the context of the epidemic, it will soon become a systematic problem.
Under the influence of the epidemic, many people's income has been greatly affected, but the mortgage debt has not decreased, and many people's repayment is unpredictable, which has affected their reputation. Not to mention those who are unemployed.
In the past five years, the growth rate was lower than double digits for the first time. People really can't afford it and have no money! At present, the leverage ratio of residents has been at a high level of 60% in the last three years, and it can't go up! Since last year, the central bank has continuously lowered RRR and cut interest rates. Since last year, almost all cities except first-tier cities have liberalized their regulation. Not only that, they have even started, such as 20% down payment, children buying a house, using their parents' provident fund loans, deed tax reduction and so on. However, there is still no mortgage data.
Since 2000, China has been the largest saver in the world. In eight years, the savings rate rose from 32% to 52%, while the world savings rate was 27% in the same period, almost twice the world average. After the financial crisis in 2008, it fell all the way, and it was 44% in 2020. Although it is still higher than the world level, the household debt ratio has soared from 18% to 56%. At present, the total debt of China people is 20 billion, and the per capita debt is 1.47 million.
Look at the mortgage situation in recent years.
In the first quarter of 20 18, the mortgage balance was 34 trillion, up 20.3% year-on-year.
20 19 The balance of mortgage in the first quarter was 40 trillion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2020, the mortgage balance was 46 trillion, up 13.9% year-on-year.
202 1 the balance of mortgage in the first quarter was 50 trillion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2022, the balance of mortgage loans was 53 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6%.
According to the survey data of 30,000 urban residents by the central bank, the average household debt ratio is 57%, of which 77% have mortgages, accounting for 75% of the total liabilities.
Look at reality through data. 70% of China residents' debts are concentrated on mortgage. The pressure of mortgage repayment is too great, especially the impact of the epidemic in the past two years. Everyone is tight with their wallets and dare not spend a penny. Children's education expenses and medical expenses are both big expenditure items. A broken income means a broken cash flow, which means that your house has become an auction house. Became an employee of the bank.
It is even more difficult for young people who have not bought a house. I'm afraid the idea of buying a house is difficult to realize. Nowadays, young people dare not even think about it without the help of their families. If young people don't take over, how can house prices rise? How much is this house? Even if it rises, it is also the core area of first-tier cities. This is beyond the reach of ordinary people and they dare not even think about it.
What is the significance of per capita debt? Actually, it doesn't mean much. At present, the supply of houses still exceeds demand, mainly because the price is too high. Whether to buy a house or not, young people are not so persistent now. It is most important to have a stable job and a salary. National real estate regulation is mainly structural regulation.
The total amount of mortgage loans is 68 trillion, and the interest rate is over 40%. How big is the mortgage pressure of China people?
The total amount of mortgage loans is 68 trillion, and the interest rate is over 40%. How big is the mortgage pressure of China people?
How big is the mortgage pressure of China people? Professor Han Geng, an economist, said that 56% of households in China "shoulder" housing loans, and 30%-70% of per capita income is used to repay housing loans. Data show that at the end of the second quarter of this year, the balance of personal mortgage in China was 38.86 trillion yuan. If personal provident fund and commercial loans are included, the principal and interest to be repaid will reach 68 trillion yuan during the 25-year loan period, and the mortgage interest rate alone will exceed 40% of family housing loans.
So, how many families in China owe commercial loans to banks? The data shows that there are 495 million households in China, including 243 million households in cities and towns, and 43.4% households owe commercial loans to banks, which is about 65.438+0.05 million households. This shows that the total number of households in China who owe commercial loans to banks is also very large. The materials also show that the average family property in China is more than 3 million yuan, while real estate accounts for 77% of the total family property, and another 23% is considered as assets. But in this kind of real estate, a large part of the loans owed to banks have not been repaid.
In fact, due to the main reason of rising house prices all over the country, more than 90% of the property buyers in China are heavily in debt, which leads to heavy pressure on family loans in China, mainly in the following three aspects:
First, most families who buy houses in China have to repay their loans with a monthly income of more than 40%, which is about 4,000-5,000 yuan. The average income of the rest is enough to meet their daily expenses. Under such circumstances, the quality of life of buyers has greatly declined, so this kind of life will continue for decades.
Second, after many families in China owe housing loans, they are easily caught in the dilemma of being afraid of being laid off, getting sick, starting a business and having children. But in fact, who can guarantee that there will be no unexpected events such as unemployment, disease and COVID-19 epidemic in the coming decades? Once the income is reduced, the housing loan cannot be repaid and can only be cut off. In recent years, because the income of many people has been greatly reduced, the total number of pre-buyers who choose to cut off their supply has continued to increase, and financial institutions are also very upset to take over many houses, so they can only authorize people to bid.
Third, the ability of ordinary people in China to resist consumption and safety risks has been seriously reduced. Ordinary people in China have exhausted all their savings, paid the down payment, and there is not much left. But in the next few decades, they will use the proceeds to repay the loan, and it is difficult to save much money. If you get laid off or get sick, you can only make a fool of yourself.
In addition, the heavy pressure of housing loans has seriously reduced the trading ability of China people, and many families live a frugal life. Experts pointed out that India's current cpi index is 66%, while our country's cpi index is only 39%. In this way, it is difficult for China's economy to be promoted by non-governmental trade.
How big is the mortgage pressure of China people? At present, the total scale of family loans is 38.3 trillion yuan, and with the loan interest in the next few decades, the total operating scale of housing loans and interest will reach 68 trillion yuan. Such a high pressure on housing loans will greatly reduce the quality of life of more than 1 100 million families, and the ability of consumer services to resist risks will be significantly weakened. People who really profit from the mortgage interest rate are usually financial institutions, real estate developers and so on. This situation must be distorted, otherwise it will have a long-term adverse impact on our society and economy.
Average housing loan balance
The average housing loan balance is 18.9 trillion yuan.
At the end of 2022, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.69 trillion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of the third quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year. The balance of individual housing loans was 38.8 trillion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
On February 3, 2022, the People's Bank of China released a statistical report on the loan investment of financial institutions in the fourth quarter, showing that at the end of 2022, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 2 13.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of1.1%; In the whole year, RMB loans increased by 2 1.3 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.36 trillion yuan.
_ _ Among them, the growth rate of real estate loans slowed down and the growth rate of real estate development loans increased. The data shows that at the end of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53./kloc-0.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.438+0.5%, which was 6.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of last year. The annual increase was 72 13 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4% of the increase in various loans in the same period.
_ _ At the end of 2022, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.69 trillion yuan, up by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of the third quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year. The balance of individual housing loans was 38.8 trillion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
_ _ At the same time, the growth rate of residents' business loans continued to rise, while the growth rate of residents' consumer loans declined. At the end of 2022, the balance of household loans in local and foreign currencies was 74.94 trillion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 65,438+0.8 percentage points lower than that at the end of the third quarter and 7.65,438+0 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year. The annual increase was 3.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09 trillion yuan.
_ _ At the end of 2022, the balance of domestic and foreign currency household operating loans was 18.9 trillion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the third quarter and 2.6 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year; The annual increase was 2.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 79.3 billion yuan. The balance of consumer loans (excluding personal housing loans) was 17.25 trillion yuan, up 4. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.3 percentage points lower than that at the end of the third quarter and 5.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year. The annual increase was 675.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 764.6 billion yuan. At the end of the second quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 206.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.2%.
In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 56,264.2 billion yuan. At the end of the first quarter, the leverage ratio of China's residential sector was 62. 1%.
We can draw two messages from it:
1. The proportion of household loans to total loans is about 35.5 1%.
2. The leverage ratio of residents is the ratio of total liabilities of residents' departments to GDP. 62. 1% means that the total debt of residents accounts for more than 60% of GDP.
The International Monetary Fund believes that the leverage ratio of residents exceeding 65% will affect financial stability. At present, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents has approached or even exceeded.
Residents' liabilities are mainly mortgages.
According to the data of the central bank, the balance of individual housing loans was 38.86 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5. 1 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
Overall, this growth rate is higher than the GDP growth rate, but lower than the previous mortgage growth rate. The main reasons are:
1. At present, the debt ratio of residents is at a high level, and there is limited room for further increase.
2. The property market is relatively cold, house prices are adjusted back, and residents' enthusiasm for buying a house is declining.
Central bank data also shows that:
At the end of the second quarter of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53. 1 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which was 3.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of last year. Among them, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.49 trillion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1. 1 percentage point lower than that at the end of last year.
Real estate loans include development loans and mortgage loans. In the last year or two, due to the occasional liquidity crisis of housing enterprises and the impact of the cold winter in the property market, the funds obtained by housing enterprises from banks have decreased significantly.
At the meeting of the Political Bureau on July 28th, it was mentioned that to stabilize the real estate market, we should adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation. Due to the city's policy, make full use of the policy toolbox, support the demand for rigid and improved housing, compact the responsibility of local governments, ensure the delivery of buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission also made a statement: support local governments to do a good job of "guaranteeing buildings and handing over houses" and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
It can be expected that the financing of housing enterprises should be improved. After all, the property market is too important, not only involving people's livelihood, but also affecting the overall economic stability.
20 10 how much is the real estate sales?
20 10, the real estate sold more than 5 billion, because the real estate increased by 5.2 billion, so the profit was equal to 5.4 billion.
The total amount of real estate loans in China and the total amount of 460 trillion real estate loans have come to an end. I wonder if you have found the information you need?