The recent changes in the breeding market are attracting people's collections, the most striking of which is the sharp rise in the price of live pigs.

We have made a detailed analysis of the soaring pig price before, so I won't go into details here.

Generally speaking, on the one hand, the rise of pig price is affected by the staged supply and demand of the market, and it rises seasonally; On the other hand, it is mainly the reluctance of the market to sell, pushing the pig price to rise further.

However, we have also analyzed that the pig market does not have the conditions for a big rise. On the one hand, production capacity is still at a high level, and there is no shortage of pigs in the market as a whole. On the other hand, in the off-season, subsequent consumption may not be as good as expected.

Therefore, the surge in pig prices may be difficult to last long.

However, with the increase of pig price, high market sentiment, increased secondary fattening, great pressure on fences, and the demand for feed has rebounded.

As one of the main raw materials of feed, corn will face greater opportunities after replacing wheat with high probability this year, and the recovery of feed demand is an opportunity for corn.

But in contrast, the corn market has been weak recently, and both the spot market and the futures market have been falling continuously.

Why is the price of pigs soaring and the price of corn falling?

The decline of corn is mainly related to several factors:

First, as the deep processing entered the maintenance season, the demand for corn began to weaken, which made the market sentiment not high.

Although the trend of corn in North China is mixed, most of them are still "priced by car", with more cars reducing prices and fewer cars increasing prices. This kind of fluctuation has become commonplace.

Second, although the mood of secondary fattening and hurdle pressing has increased with the soaring pig price, most feed enterprises have abundant stocks, especially the current decline in corn, which makes the wait-and-see mood of enterprises worse, and a few deliveries are limited to replenishment.

Third, corn continues to decline weakly, and traders are also embarrassed.

On the one hand, the cost of opening positions in the early stage is high, and no one is willing to sell grain if it falls; On the other hand, it is generally expected that the market demand is high, because after the withdrawal of wheat substitution, corn is facing the situation of supporting the whole market alone, but the demand expectation is often easily amplified, which leads to the market slowdown.

Fourth, the American planting report shows that the corn planting area is higher than that predicted in March, but it is still at a low level in recent years. However, recently, the international market has been affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and economic recession. From energy to food to metals, it has also affected the domestic corn sentiment to some extent.

These factors are superimposed, which makes it difficult for corn to vibrate.

However, there is really not much time left for corn. In August, early-season corn may be on the market, and by September, the main corn producing areas will enter the harvest period one after another, so there is really not much time left for corn.

So, is there any chance for corn?

In the follow-up, the opportunity construction of corn mainly focuses on three aspects:

The first is demand support.

Although domestic wheat prices have fallen frequently in recent days, the probability of a sharp drop is not great, and the meaning at the policy level is relatively clear. Basically, it is difficult to replace wheat in large quantities without feeding rations.

However, because of its remote location, slow delivery and a little far from hydrolysis, rice is thirsty for feed enterprises, so there is still a chance in demand.

On the other hand, although the international oil price has dropped, it still fluctuates around 100 USD/barrel. In order to control soaring fuel prices, many countries tend to increase the mixing ratio of biofuels, which further expands the demand expectation of corn.

The second is weather interference.

Weather is an inseparable topic every year.

Although North America has sent away the wet and cold weather, it is followed by a high temperature warning, which will also have an impact on corn.

Domestically, the northeast is still cold and rainy, and north China is still hot, which has a certain impact on corn.

The third is planting cost support.

Although the price of urea has decreased recently, the increase in the price of chemical fertilizer has intensified the pressure on planting costs during the peak season of agricultural demand. In addition to the planting cost, it is generally reflected that the land price has nearly doubled this year, so the cost is the most powerful support.

Based on these three factors, there are still opportunities for follow-up corn, but the probability of a sharp increase is not great, so we need to pay close attention to the upward fluctuation trend.

In addition, attention should be paid to avoid centralized delivery caused by market fluctuations.

For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.