Is corn expected to rise or fall in 2022?
In 20021year, the total output of corn increased by 4.6%, and in 2022, pigs and meat birds will continue to lose capacity. The number of egg birds did not increase much, and the industrial demand for corn continued to be sluggish.
Therefore, if we only look at supply and demand, there is indeed room for corn to fall in 2022, but we must also consider cost and policy factors.
Many people say that commodity prices are determined by supply and demand and have nothing to do with cost. But corn is not an ordinary commodity, it is a staple food, and the social attribute of staple food is far greater than that of commodity.
If you don't understand this truth, don't analyze corn and don't do corn futures. If the price of staple food was completely determined by supply and demand, it would have been 10 yuan kilo long ago, so we can't ignore the cost and policy when analyzing the price of corn.
At present, the cross-regional sales of corn in Northeast China are not obvious, and most of them are self-digested. Moreover, the progress of selling grain in different counties and cities is different, and farmers in some areas are very reluctant to sell.
In some areas, farmers are highly motivated to sell grain. So this is also the main reason for the decline of corn market in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces.
Analysis of Corn Planting Cost
In 2020, corn rose sharply, pushing up the land rent in corn producing areas, and the land rent in Northeast China generally rose by 20-30%. There are many crops to choose from in North China, but the land rent has also increased by 50- 100 yuan/mu.
Due to the tight supply of urea in the world, the price of 202 1 fertilizer rose by 50-80% on average.
There is more rain this year, especially in North China during the corn harvest season. Unable to use mechanical harvesting, resulting in an increase in labor costs per mu in Shandong and Henan 180 yuan.
Calculated according to the average unit output of 550-580 kg/mu in North China. The average cost of corn in Shandong and Henan has reached as high as 1.25- 1.35 yuan/kg, which is almost the same as the current market price when the profits of transportation, processing and traders are included.
Corn is the staple food. When the planting cost rises sharply, even if the supply of corn is slightly greater than the demand in 2022. It is also impossible for the state to let farmers grow grain at a loss, which involves the vital interests of hundreds of millions of farmers and food security.
There are far fewer employees in the aquaculture industry, and consumers are extremely sensitive to the price of meat, poultry, eggs and milk. Therefore, all farmers and enterprises should fully realize that the state's attitude towards "grain bags" and "vegetable baskets" is different.
Domestic corn production and marketing structure
In terms of production, corn is the first staple food in China, although it is not a food ration. Especially in 202 1, corn production accounts for 43.07% of the total grain output.
Corn planting areas mainly include spring sowing corn areas in the northeast, northwest and Inner Mongolia, accounting for about 45% of the total corn planting area.
The planting area of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai region such as Shandong, Hebei and Henan accounts for about 30% of the total planting area of maize. The mountainous and hilly areas in southwest and south China account for about 25% of the total corn planting area.
From the consumption point of view, domestic corn is mainly used as feed and industrial consumption, of which feed consumption accounts for 65%~70%. Industrial consumption is mainly used for the production of starch and alcohol, accounting for about 20%. The rest are edible and seed edible, but the proportion is less than 10%.
So in general, corn can still be planted in 2022, and the price will not fluctuate particularly.