This wave of "awesome" rise in pig prices has really boosted the confidence of farmers, and many farmers have begun to gear up and continue to "do a big job".
However, although the rise in pig prices is a good thing, some farmers are still confused and worried about the next trend. How will the pig price evolve in May?
Let's take a look at the current pig price:
According to the monitoring of many data of live pigs, on May 2, the national price of ternary live pigs was 14.88 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from yesterday.
If the cost of farmers in the first quarter announced by Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. is 7.86 yuan/kg, the current price of live pigs is only one step away from the cost line.
# Pig price #
Regarding piglets, let's take15kg piglets as an example: according to the monitoring of a large number of live pigs, the national price of15kg piglets was 32.63 yuan/kg on May 2nd, up 0.95 yuan/kg from yesterday. Bian Xiao had to sigh the power of this rise.
If calculated according to the piglet slaughter cost of 300-500 announced by major pig enterprises at the end of last year, basically the piglet slaughter has achieved breakeven, and even some enterprises have made small profits.
# Piggy price #
After talking about the current situation of pig price, let's predict the next trend of pig price.
To predict the trend of pig price, we must start from the relationship between supply and demand: official data show that the number of live pigs at the end of the first quarter was 422.53 million, a decrease of 26.69 million compared with 449.22 million at the end of last year; At the end of the first quarter, there were 465.438+0.85 million sows, a decrease of 65.438+0.44 million sows compared with 43.29 million sows at the end of the previous year.
Generally speaking, the whole hog market was in the stage of de-capacity in the first quarter, whether farmers took the initiative to de-capacity, or farmers were forced to de-capacity due to continuous losses, or were forced to withdraw from the market due to public safety and health incidents; Up to now, the imbalance between supply and demand of pig production capacity has been improved.
Market supply and demand have a long-term impact on pig prices, or determine the trend of pig prices for a long time to come. Just talking about the trend of pig price in May, we should also consider short-term factors, such as the short-term impact of pig farmers' price reduction, slaughter enterprises' price reduction and holidays on market consumption.
# Raise pigs #
From the point of view of breeding, the pig slaughter in May is expected to further decrease, on the one hand, the price of farmers is quite high, on the other hand, the pig slaughter in 10 began to decrease last year, which means that the supply of pigs in the whole pig market is expected to begin to decline at the peak in May. Therefore, in terms of supply, there will not be much increase in the probability of live pigs in May.
As far as the market is concerned, we are now in the period of May Day holiday. Although all regions have strengthened prevention and control on May 1 this year, it still has a certain boosting effect on the market.
However, judging from the feedback from slaughter enterprises, there were few follow-up orders, which lowered the price of white pork by traders hoarding frozen pork before the festival.
In short, from the short-term market factors or long-term supply and demand factors, the pig price may show a trend of "rising first, then falling and then rising", and the overall price may be slightly higher than that in April, and the overall increase is still small; However, judging from the current situation of de-capacity, it is unlikely that the pig price will bottom out again. Throughout the second quarter, pig prices may wander around the cost line and enter the third quarter. As officially predicted, raising pigs is expected to break even.
How to treat the next pig price trend? Welcome to leave a message for discussion.