The Ministry of Commerce believes that the price of natural rubber continues to rise, suppliers are reluctant to sell, and the spot supply is still tight. The downstream automobile industry and tire manufacturing industry have strong demand for natural rubber, and the inventory continues to be consumed. Last week, the inventory of natural rubber in Shanghai Futures Exchange was only 17225 tons, down 78.4% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the price of crude oil hit record highs, which also supported the price of rubber. It is expected that the price of natural rubber will continue to rise in the short term.
However, although the price of natural rubber can be expected to rise in the afternoon, some analysts also expressed concern about the slowdown in demand for rubber products in the future.
Chen Kexin, China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, believes that due to the increase in production costs, the influx of oil prices and the huge amount of speculative funds entering the futures market, it is expected that domestic rubber prices, especially natural rubber prices, will remain at a high level for some time.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic level and the development trend of supply and demand do not support the continued rise of rubber prices.
Chen Kexin pointed out that the growth momentum of rubber exports has dropped significantly, domestic automobile production has also slowed down, and oil prices in the international market have hit record highs, which has also increased the cost of rubber production. In addition, the cancellation and downward adjustment of refined oil price subsidies will have a greater impact on domestic automobile sales and use, and tire demand will inevitably weaken. Under the influence of multiple factors, the growth rate of domestic rubber demand will slow down in the second half of the year, and the domestic rubber market will continue to fluctuate widely.