202 1, 1 1, the price of pulp rose from 4850 yuan/ton to about 6000 yuan/ton, because the supply was in a hurry. The price quoted by domestic pulp mills in February of 65438 is basically the same as that quoted in February of 165438+ 10. The import cost has not increased. With the increase of domestic pulp price, the import profit of pulp has improved, and the futures market also provides hedging opportunities. With the decrease of pulp supply and the recovery of demand, the price of pulp has been greatly improved after the basic profit rate has dropped sharply. It is expected that the pulp will continue to fluctuate at a high level for some time to come before the supply gradually recovers.

I. Overview of pulp futures

1. full name of pulp futures: bleached kraft softwood pulp, which was listed and traded from 2018165438+1October 27th, and opened in call auction from 8: 55 to 9: 00 that day. Every Monday to Friday from 09:00- 10: 15, 10: 30- 1: 30 and 13:30- 15:00, with continuous trading hours. No trading will be conducted during the continuous trading period on the first working day before legal holidays (excluding Saturday and Sunday).

2. Delivery unit: The delivery unit of bleached softwood pulp (hereinafter referred to as bleached softwood pulp) futures contract is 20 tons (air-dried weight) per standard warrant, and the delivery unit is an integral multiple of each standard warrant.

Second, the factors affecting the price

The main factors affecting the price of China pulp market: supply, the supply of domestic pulp market is mainly determined by domestic output, inventory, import volume and national industrial policies. Among them, the output and inventory are mainly affected by basic materials and labor costs, forest area and climate conditions. Imports are mainly affected by RMB exchange rate and trade policy. On the demand side, pulp demand is mainly determined by downstream technology and industrial development, seasons, product reserves, product characteristics, national policies and macroeconomic conditions. The interaction of these factors constitutes the law of pulp price fluctuation. In addition, the overall domestic demand, inventory, freight and exchange rate are all important factors affecting the price of pulp.

Third, supply analysis.

For global pulp production, 2008 is a very obvious watershed. Before 2008, the global pulp output increased year by year, and then the financial crisis led to a sharp drop in pulp prices. Subsequently, the market output shrank rapidly and production entered a period of steady fluctuation. Compared with the operation of pulp production in China, before 20 1 1 year, pulp production was in a stage of rapid expansion, with an average annual growth of 10%. After 20 1 1 year, the pulp output gradually stabilized, with an annual output of about 79 million tons.