Affected by the seasonal rebound of consumption and the blocked circulation of frozen products, the price of pork in China has risen sharply. With the official listing of live pig futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange, many people are worried that futures will amplify the price fluctuation of pork. In this regard, experts said that the main factor determining the price of pork is the relationship between supply and demand. At present, the demand for pork in China is relatively stable. Although the supply is still tight, there is limited room for future price increases. Zhu Sheng Futures, the first real-time delivery futures product in China, was officially listed on Dalian Commodity Exchange. The influence of pig futures on domestic pork prices and pig cycle has become the focus of attention. Will futures affect the trend of pig prices? What impact will it have on the whole industry? On related hot topics, the reporter of Economic Daily interviewed experts and scholars in the industry. ?

"The main factor that determines the price of pigs is the relationship between supply and demand. The listing of live pig futures will not directly affect the supply and demand fundamentals of live pigs. At present, the demand for pork in China is relatively stable, but the supply will change due to many factors, such as novel coronavirus epidemic, reproductive profit, policy orientation and so on. Change the fundamentals of domestic pork supply and demand, and finally determine the direction of pork prices. " Chen Yanjun said that he is a senior expert in the futures market and has been a senior analyst in Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market for many years. ?

So, what is the current supply and price of pork in China? "The pig production in China has been greatly restored, but the overall supply is still tight," Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at Beijing College of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview. The influence of pig futures on the pig cycle: the fundamentals of supply and demand determine the pig cycle. "Although some people worry that futures will amplify the fluctuation of pork prices and disrupt the pig cycle, the pig cycle will be disrupted. K0] is the largest agricultural and sideline product with market value in China, with a market scale of over one trillion. -The variety of US dollar futures on the market is very limited. " Chen Yanjun believes that relevant companies can focus on becoming bigger and stronger. Don't worry about the listing and trading of Zhu Sheng futures. "Although the listing of Sheng pig futures will not directly affect the listing and trading of Sheng (k0) futures. In the industrial chain of interplanting, slaughter and trade, the value of hedging futures is very high. The company provides a channel to avoid price risks and maintain and increase value. " Chen Yanjun said. ?

The so-called futures hedging means that operators use futures contracts as temporary substitutes for buying and selling goods in the spot market in the future. They buy and sell in advance, lock prices in advance, and avoid the risk of large fluctuations in market prices. The breeding cycle of pigs is relatively long. It generally takes about 10 months to grow from a pregnant pig to a piglet. In the long breeding cycle, diseases, supply and demand, feed prices and many other aspects are full of uncertainties, which may lead to a large deviation between the future pig production price and the expected one. Using the tool of pig futures, when the price of pig futures is moderate, aquaculture enterprises can pre-sell the same amount of pig futures in the futures market to lock in profits in advance. At the same time, the raw pig futures can also help the slaughtering and processing links to buy in advance to prevent the irrational price increase of raw pigs in the future. The reporter learned from Dalian Commodity Exchange that Mu Yuan, Shi Wen, Zhengbang Technology, New Hope, Zheng Da and other leading domestic pig breeding enterprises will all enter the market to participate in the pig futures delivery business.