In the domestic market, as of the close of June 17, Shanghai Copper 2 107 fell by 0.32% to 68,800 yuan/ton. Spot copper —— The average price of electrolytic copper dropped by 0. 17% to 69 170 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the share prices of copper-related concept stocks also showed signs of decline-at the close, Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, shares it) and other stocks all fell in the A-share market. In the Hong Kong stock market, Zhongyu Group (00985) fell by 2.48%, and Jiangxi Copper (00358) fell by more than 1%.
So after some signs of decline, how will the next trend of copper prices evolve?
Many factors are suppressed, and the copper price is "nailed"?
Since the first half of this year, thanks to the economic recovery pattern maintained by overseas economies, the supply situation of low output growth rate, and the boost of market demand by long-term factors such as new energy and carbon neutrality, copper prices have risen steadily and have a rhythm of "rising to the sky".
In the international market, LME copper price reached a record high in early May, breaking through the 1 10,000 USD mark, and has increased by more than 20% so far this year. At the same time, the copper price in the domestic market is not to be outdone-the share price of Shanghai Copper 2 107 has risen by nearly 20% since the beginning of the year, and reached a record high on May 10, rising to 78,740 yuan/ton, while the average price of spot copper (electrolytic copper) once hit 76,900 yuan/ton, up 32.8% from the beginning of the year. ...
On May 12, the executive meeting of the State Council called for tracking and analyzing the situation and market changes at home and abroad, doing a good job in market regulation, coping with the excessive rise of commodity prices and its collateral effects, strengthening the coordination and cooperation between monetary policy and other policies, and maintaining a stable economic operation.
On May 19, the executive meeting in the State Council requested that we should do a good job in the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, and attach great importance to the adverse effects caused by the rising prices of bulk commodities. ......
Judging from the actions of the above-mentioned continuous meetings, it is not difficult to see the determination of the policy layer to "guarantee supply and stabilize prices" of bulk commodities.
Specifically, the website of the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau disclosed that national reserves such as copper, aluminum and zinc will be released in batches in the near future. Into the non-ferrous metal processing and manufacturing enterprises, the implementation of public bidding. The reason for dumping, the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau said, was based on the deployment of the the State Council executive meeting to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities.
As the dumping news was finally implemented, the copper price that rose to the sky during this period fell again.
In fact, in addition to the official announcement of selling reserves to suppress the trend of copper prices, Wednesday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting also played a "fueling" effect.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, last night's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting was widely regarded by the market as the most important meeting for the Fed to adjust its expectations. But judging from the contents revealed at the meeting, the resolution of the meeting was a "hawkish accident". Although there is no mention of reducing the bond purchase plan of at least $654.38+02 billion and keeping the existing federal funds interest rate unchanged, it is mentioned that interest rates will be raised twice in 2023, and the overnight reverse repo rate will be raised to 0.05%. The market reacted strongly to this. The US dollar index rose above 965.438+0, and the yield of US bonds also rose.
Because the negative correlation between the US dollar index and copper price is very high-that is, the two are basically in opposite trends, copper prices fell as soon as the FOMC meeting resolution came out last night.
In addition, it should be pointed out that apart from the "official announcement and dumping" and "partial eagle accident", the upcoming off-season of copper demand also puts downward pressure on copper prices to some extent.
According to relevant data disclosure, the terminal demand shows obvious signs of cooling down: in May, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 8 1.7%, down1.86% from the previous month; The operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 84. 15%, down 1.44% from the previous month. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises was 85.45%, down 3.96% from the previous month. The operating rate of copper rod enterprises was 70.45%, down 0. 14% from the previous month. In addition, the import data is less than expected, which further proves that the demand side is declining. In May, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China dropped to 445,000 tons for the second consecutive month, with a decrease of 8%.
At the same time, due to the phenomenon that high prices have obviously damaged the end consumption, downstream processing enterprises are more cautious about the preparation of raw materials, thus promoting the recovery of copper stocks.
Based on the above, it is not difficult to find that it is the above factors that have suppressed the copper price, and then let the copper price that has risen to the sky go down the steps to cool down.
Up or down, what do you think of the copper market outlook?
At present, the skyrocketing copper price has been suppressed by many factors. So, what happens next?
Judging from the relevant research reports, the next trend of copper prices can be analyzed from both short-term and long-term perspectives, as follows:
First, in the short term, influenced by macro factors and supply and demand factors, speculative sentiment may be suppressed, which may lead to the pressure of copper price correction for a period of time.
Specifically, at the macro level, the liquidity inflection point of the Federal Reserve is difficult to confirm for the time being, and inflation expectations and a weak dollar still support prices. Domestic high-level officials have repeatedly called for the superposition of the selling behavior of the state reserve to curb speculation and make the price relatively rational. On the supply side, the supply margin of copper mine is expected to accelerate, the processing fee may continue to rise, the price of by-products such as sulfuric acid is higher, and the supply growth rate of smelting side will remain high. On the demand side, the demand for infrastructure such as power grid construction in traditional consumption areas is generally weak, and it will take a long time for new areas such as new energy vehicles and new energy power generation to stimulate copper demand.
Therefore, on the whole, domestic policies focus on commodity prices, and speculation may be suppressed. The recovery of raw material supply and smelting supply is expected to be faster than the overall demand growth, and it is expected that copper prices will still have callback pressure in the short to medium term.
However, it should be noted that Founder Mid-term Futures said that the State Reserve Bureau currently reserves about 6.5438+0.8 million tons to 2 million tons of copper. As far as the past situation is concerned, the copper price is relatively under pressure during the fermentation of selling news, but once the impact on the price drops rapidly, the dominant factors of the price mainly depend on the fundamentals and macro aspects.
Second, in the long run, benefiting from the development opportunities generated by "carbon neutrality", the long-term incremental trend of copper demand will not change, which will further promote the rising pattern of copper prices.
As we all know, under the background of "carbon neutrality", new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry will remain the two major directions of increasing demand. In this regard,
CICC pointed out that in the long run, the pattern of rising copper price center will not change. One of the reasons is that the copper supply has entered a period of low growth, and the processing fee is at a low level, which inhibits the copper smelting capacity; Second, under the background of clean energy revolution, copper demand space has been opened.
Goldman Sachs also published a research report, saying that the key role that copper will play in achieving Paris climate goals should not be underestimated. If there is no significant progress in carbon capture and storage technology in the next few years, net zero emission can only rely on emission reduction, specifically electrification and renewable energy.
It is reported that copper, as the most cost-effective conductive material, is the core of acquiring, storing and transporting these new energy sources. Based on this effect, Goldman Sachs said that the 1920s will be the decade with the highest growth of global copper demand in history. The sharp increase in copper demand will also keep copper prices rising. The agency pointed out that the most likely trend of copper prices from now on is to rise to around $65,438+$05,000 around 2025.
After being poured cold water by "official announcement" and "partial eagle accident", the crazy copper price seems to have a downward trend.
In the international market, as of June 17, LME copper (CA) dropped by 2.35% to 9440 USD/ton, which was gradually drifting away from the 10000 USD mark in mid-May.
In the domestic market, as of the close of June 17, Shanghai Copper 2 107 fell by 0.32% to 68,800 yuan/ton. Spot copper —— The average price of electrolytic copper dropped by 0. 17% to 69 170 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the share prices of copper-related concept stocks also showed signs of decline-as of the close, Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous all fell in the A-share market. In the Hong Kong stock market, Zhongyu Group (00985) fell by 2.48%, and Jiangxi Copper (00358) fell by more than 1%.
So after some signs of decline, how will the next trend of copper prices evolve?
Many factors are suppressed, and the copper price is "nailed"?
Since the first half of this year, thanks to the economic recovery pattern maintained by overseas economies, the supply situation of low output growth rate, and the boost of market demand by long-term factors such as new energy and carbon neutrality, copper prices have risen steadily and have a rhythm of "rising to the sky".
In the international market, LME copper price reached a record high in early May, breaking through the 1 10,000 USD mark, and has increased by more than 20% so far this year. At the same time, the copper price in the domestic market is not to be outdone-the share price of Shanghai Copper 2 107 has risen by nearly 20% since the beginning of the year, and reached a record high on May 10, rising to 78,740 yuan/ton, while the average price of spot copper (electrolytic copper) once hit 76,900 yuan/ton, up 32.8% from the beginning of the year. ...
On May 12, the executive meeting of the State Council called for tracking and analyzing the situation and market changes at home and abroad, doing a good job in market regulation, coping with the excessive rise of commodity prices and its collateral effects, strengthening the coordination and cooperation between monetary policy and other policies, and maintaining a stable economic operation.
On May 19, the executive meeting in the State Council requested that we should do a good job in the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, and attach great importance to the adverse effects caused by the rising prices of bulk commodities. ......
Judging from the actions of the above-mentioned continuous meetings, it is not difficult to see the determination of the policy layer to "guarantee supply and stabilize prices" of bulk commodities.
Specifically, the website of the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau disclosed that national reserves such as copper, aluminum and zinc will be released in batches in the near future. Into the non-ferrous metal processing and manufacturing enterprises, the implementation of public bidding. The reason for dumping, the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau said, was based on the deployment of the the State Council executive meeting to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities.
As the dumping news was finally implemented, the copper price that rose to the sky during this period fell again.
In fact, in addition to the official announcement of selling reserves to suppress the trend of copper prices, Wednesday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting also played a "fueling" effect.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, last night's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting was widely regarded by the market as the most important meeting for the Fed to adjust its expectations. But judging from the contents revealed at the meeting, the resolution of the meeting was a "hawkish accident". Although there is no mention of reducing the bond purchase plan of at least $654.38+02 billion and keeping the existing federal funds interest rate unchanged, it is mentioned that interest rates will be raised twice in 2023, and the overnight reverse repo rate will be raised to 0.05%. The market reacted strongly to this. The US dollar index rose above 965.438+0, and the yield of US bonds also rose.
Because the negative correlation between the US dollar index and copper price is very high-that is, the two are basically in opposite trends, copper prices fell as soon as the FOMC meeting resolution came out last night.
In addition, it should be pointed out that apart from the "official announcement and dumping" and "partial eagle accident", the upcoming off-season of copper demand also puts downward pressure on copper prices to some extent.
According to relevant data disclosure, the terminal demand shows obvious signs of cooling down: in May, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 8 1.7%, down1.86% from the previous month; The operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 84. 15%, down 1.44% from the previous month. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises was 85.45%, down 3.96% from the previous month. The operating rate of copper rod enterprises was 70.45%, down 0. 14% from the previous month. In addition, the import data is less than expected, which further proves that the demand side is declining. In May, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China dropped to 445,000 tons for the second consecutive month, with a decrease of 8%.
At the same time, due to the phenomenon that high prices have obviously damaged the end consumption, downstream processing enterprises are more cautious about the preparation of raw materials, thus promoting the recovery of copper stocks.
Based on the above, it is not difficult to find that it is the above factors that have suppressed the copper price, and then let the copper price that has risen to the sky go down the steps to cool down.
Up or down, what do you think of the copper market outlook?
At present, the skyrocketing copper price has been suppressed by many factors. So, what happens next?
Judging from the relevant research reports, the next trend of copper prices can be analyzed from both short-term and long-term perspectives, as follows:
First, in the short term, influenced by macro factors and supply and demand factors, speculative sentiment may be suppressed, which may lead to the pressure of copper price correction for a period of time.
Specifically, at the macro level, the liquidity inflection point of the Federal Reserve is difficult to confirm for the time being, and inflation expectations and a weak dollar still support prices. Domestic high-level officials have repeatedly called for the superposition of the selling behavior of the state reserve to curb speculation and make the price relatively rational. On the supply side, the supply margin of copper mine is expected to accelerate, the processing fee may continue to rise, the price of by-products such as sulfuric acid is higher, and the supply growth rate of smelting side will remain high. On the demand side, the demand for infrastructure such as power grid construction in traditional consumption areas is generally weak, and it will take a long time for new areas such as new energy vehicles and new energy power generation to stimulate copper demand.
Therefore, on the whole, domestic policies focus on commodity prices, and speculation may be suppressed. The recovery of raw material supply and smelting supply is expected to be faster than the overall demand growth, and it is expected that copper prices will still have callback pressure in the short to medium term.
However, it should be noted that Founder Mid-term Futures said that the State Reserve Bureau currently reserves about 6.5438+0.8 million tons to 2 million tons of copper. As far as the past situation is concerned, the copper price is relatively under pressure during the fermentation of selling news, but once the impact on the price drops rapidly, the dominant factors of the price mainly depend on the fundamentals and macro aspects.
Second, in the long run, benefiting from the development opportunities generated by "carbon neutrality", the long-term incremental trend of copper demand will not change, which will further promote the rising pattern of copper prices.
As we all know, under the background of "carbon neutrality", new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry will remain the two major directions of increasing demand. In this regard,
CICC pointed out that in the long run, the pattern of rising copper price center will not change. One of the reasons is that the copper supply has entered a period of low growth, and the processing fee is at a low level, which inhibits the copper smelting capacity; Second, under the background of clean energy revolution, copper demand space has been opened.
Goldman Sachs also published a research report, saying that the key role that copper will play in achieving Paris climate goals should not be underestimated. If there is no significant progress in carbon capture and storage technology in the next few years, net zero emission can only rely on emission reduction, specifically electrification and renewable energy.
It is reported that copper, as the most cost-effective conductive material, is the core of acquiring, storing and transporting these new energy sources. Based on this effect, Goldman Sachs said that the 1920s will be the decade with the highest growth of global copper demand in history. The sharp increase in copper demand will also keep copper prices rising. The agency pointed out that the most likely trend of copper prices from now on is to rise to around $65,438+$05,000 around 2025.