In the design of egg futures, Dalian Commodity Exchange systematically combed the possible risks from the source of egg production to the terminal consumption, and designed a targeted risk control system on the basis of fully drawing lessons from the existing risk prevention measures of mature varieties. After many arguments by spot enterprises, traders, inspection institutions and warehouses, it is generally believed that the rules and system design of egg futures can effectively avoid the occurrence of risk events.
Risk caused by quality
The quality risk of eggs mainly comes from two aspects: one is the risk brought by the change of egg freshness; The second is the risk of eggs not meeting the national hygiene standards. In view of two possible risks, we have formulated targeted measures.
The quality indexes such as the freshness of eggs at room temperature are changeable, the quality of products delivered at room temperature is difficult to guarantee, and the risks of trading and delivery are great. In view of this, our egg futures are delivered in a constant temperature warehouse, which not only conforms to the variety characteristics of eggs, but also meets the requirements of the futures market. According to the experimental data, the freshness level of eggs will not change when they are stored at 2.5℃ for 65438 0 months. Therefore, when the storage conditions are known, the quality of eggs can be clearly predicted.
Egg futures adopt the spot market method in the design and inspection of health indicators, including the health indicators in the delivery quality standards, but the exchange only conducts random inspection according to a certain proportion when entering the warehouse, and conducts inspection according to the requirements of the buyer's customers when leaving the warehouse.
Risks caused by epidemic outbreaks
At present, there are more than 10 kinds of diseases related to laying hens, among which avian influenza has the widest spread and the greatest impact. In the design of egg futures rules, a targeted response plan for bird flu and other epidemics was formulated.
After the outbreak of egg-related diseases such as avian influenza in some areas and even the whole country, the potential impact on egg futures mainly includes price changes, reduction of deliverable quantity, suspension of delivery business at delivery places in epidemic areas, etc. In view of these possible situations, we have formulated a response plan.
1. Impact on price
The impact of the bird flu epidemic on the spot market is two-way. From the perspective of supply, the supply of eggs will be affected to some extent, because some producing areas will kill laying hens. From the consumption point of view, consumers will reduce the consumption of eggs for fear of being infected with avian influenza virus. As far as the futures market is concerned, the large-scale outbreak of avian influenza may have a greater psychological impact on investors, which in turn will cause greater fluctuations in futures market prices. Increase the training and publicity of egg futures, strengthen supervision, and prevent speculative funds from causing extreme fluctuations in egg futures prices when the epidemic breaks out.
2. Impact on available delivery quantity
China has a vast territory, and the climate types at different latitudes are quite different. Therefore, even if there is a large-scale bird flu epidemic, it will not have a great impact on the deliverable amount of egg futures. In order to prevent the potential impact of bird flu epidemic, we set strict position limits according to the variety characteristics of eggs and social inventory, so as to ensure that sellers can organize egg delivery conveniently and reduce the delivery risk.
3. Impact on delivery warehouse and factory warehouse
When the avian flu epidemic occurs at the delivery place, it will have a great impact on egg futures, and delivery warehouses and delivery factories in the epidemic area will be forced to stop delivery business.
In order to cope with the possible situation, we have formulated detailed plans and measures: (1) According to the characteristics of China's egg producing areas, we should ensure that the delivery warehouses and factories are fully dispersed and reserve enough spare delivery warehouses in the producing areas and sales areas. (2) When the delivery place is in the epidemic area, stop the warehouse receipt registration business, and delay the delivery date of the seller who holds the warehouse receipt in the epidemic area after the final delivery date matches. (3) When the number of delivery warehouses in epidemic areas reaches a certain proportion, start standby delivery warehouses. When the available delivery warehouse capacity cannot meet the delivery demand, we will take measures such as adjusting the opening and closing time, suspending trading and terminating trading to control the market risk in accordance with the Risk Management Measures of Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Market manipulation risk
The egg market is large in scale and fully competitive, and there is no monopoly on the whole. In view of the characteristics of unified production and intolerant storage, a strict warehouse restriction system has been formulated, which can effectively prevent the risk of market manipulation.
China egg market has a moderate scale and sufficient delivery. China's egg market has a high degree of marketization in production, consumption and trade, with full competition and no monopoly. At present, egg futures is the most stringent variety set by large trading companies, which can completely prevent the risk of transaction delivery.
(The seventh knowledge of egg futures)