Our existing financial fields-banking, stock market, futures and bond market-all have major problems of opening up and reform. So how can we revitalize China's financial market? I think it depends on an innovative and interesting field called Internet finance. From the second half of 20 13, I found that the booming internet finance was enthusiastically sought after because it was closer to the lifestyle of ordinary people. In addition to giving you higher and more diversified income and returns than bank demand deposits, you can also take into account liquidity. Therefore, I believe that Internet finance represented by Yu 'ebao is definitely a sunrise industry in the ascendant.
But you must ask me, why did the yield of Yu 'ebao suddenly drop at 20 14? Have you lost the advantage of high yield? How do you explain this? To answer this question, we have to find out the capital flow of Yu 'ebao. The real name of Yu 'ebao is Tian Hong Zenglibao Fund, which is a "T+0" monetary fund. 90% of the funds are invested in the interbank lending market, that is, the money raised from Alipay is lent to banks for high interest. As we can see from the figure, the yield of Yu 'ebao decreased in 20 14 years because the interbank lending funds were relatively loose during this period, resulting in lower interbank lending interest.
Regarding Internet finance, I found that many experts and scholars have great misunderstandings about it. Why? They basically think that Internet finance is a "double cannon". First, headed by Yu 'ebao, it impacts the demand deposit market of commercial banks; Secondly, taking the current P2P network credit as an example, they have impacted the time deposits of commercial banks. Because of these two statements, the development of internet finance is regarded as a thorn in the side of commercial banks and has been curbed. I want to put forward my personal views on this so-called "double-sounding gun" here.
Let's take ICBC as an example to analyze whether Internet financial products really challenge the deposits of traditional commercial banks. ICBC actually has a money market fund similar to Yu 'ebao-ICBC Currency. Let's take a look at the comparison between it and Yu 'ebao's yield. The trend of the two is basically the same. ICBC currency is sometimes even higher than Yu 'ebao's yield and higher than ICBC's deposit interest rate. In this case, by the end of the second quarter of 20 14, the size of ICBC's currency was only 87 billion, which was only equivalent to 1% of ICBC's demand deposits. What do you mean? Even if ICBC depositors are given an annualized rate of return of 5%, most of them will still choose demand deposits.
This data inside ICBC actually illustrates a very important question, that is, why do people give up high-return ICBC currency and choose demand deposits when ICBC decides how to dispose of idle funds? Because most people in China think that their spare money is spent, not invested to make money. Think about it, is the money left in your hand used to buy daily consumer goods or to meet general consumption?
Let's look back at Yu 'ebao. 20 14 July, Yu 'ebao users exceeded 1 100 million, with a scale of over 570 billion. Why does it far exceed the 87 billion scale of ICBC currency? Because Yu 'ebao and Alibaba's Alipay are directly linked, the money in Yu 'ebao can be directly purchased online from Taobao and Tmall, and you can also buy train tickets and pay utilities to meet various consumer needs. Therefore, it is consumption that has caused the surge in the amount of Yu 'ebao.