1. From the short-term analysis, when a currency is expected to appreciate, from the experience of foreign countries, the relationship between exchange rate and stock market is: expected appreciation of domestic currency-hot money inflow-stock market rise-attracting more hot money inflow-increasing appreciation pressure-exchange rate appreciation-hot money outflow-stock market drop sharply. The systematic risk of stock market ups and downs is not conducive to the function of stock market financing, asset allocation and pricing, and weakens its role in promoting economic development.
In the long run, the decline in macroeconomic growth and the weakening of the role of the stock market in promoting the economy will definitely affect listed companies in the stock market, and then affect the development of the entire securities market.
2. The impact of RMB exchange rate stability on the stock market: the short-term impact of appreciation expectations is very small, and the space for raising interest rates is limited, which is conducive to the interpretation of the medium and long-term upward trend of the stock market.
3. The expectation of RMB appreciation has little effect on the short-term promotion of the stock market: According to statistics, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, some time ago, international "hot money" flowed in about 27 billion yuan, mainly targeting securities (stock market, bond market) and real estate, which was quickly realized. It can be seen from the recent hot domestic real estate market and the enthusiasm of QFII funds. However, the central government's control over investment in the real estate industry and the reduction of investment quotas announced by Deutsche Bank and HSBC indicate that the government has strengthened supervision over overseas funds. At the same time, the government has made it clear that to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, the foreign exchange administration department will gradually relax the scope of foreign exchange used by individual enterprises, which will also prevent the continuous inflow of "hot money" to some extent. Therefore, the expectation of appreciation has little short-term promotion effect on the stock market. We believe that the recent acceleration of the expansion of new shares is also the government's prevention of this part of funds to a certain extent, because once the stock market is pushed up by this part of funds, the expected effect will attract more "hot money" inflows, which violates the goal of exchange rate stability. Therefore, the market will continue to maintain this consolidation in the short term.