The data shows that although the domestic egg market is bullish near the Dragon Boat Festival, after all, according to previous years' experience, the terminal market has the enthusiasm for stocking, and food enterprises also have certain replenishment needs. Supported by the demand side, the price of eggs showed an upward trend before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in previous years.
However, judging from the current domestic egg market, the price of eggs in the production and marketing areas "plummeted" because of the large number of eggs arriving in the consumer market. However, the consumer market is not good, the shipping sentiment at the breeding end is high, the traders' price reduction sentiment is getting stronger, and the egg price in the domestic production and marketing market is falling sideways. Among them, the price of some wholesale markets in Beijing and Guangdong dropped by about 0. 15 yuan/kg, and the price of eggs in Beijing wholesale market dropped to 4.5 ~. However, in the main egg producing areas of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui, the mood of hoarding goods in farms is not high. Due to the increase in the number of newly-added laying hens, the risk of egg mildew rebounded, and the price drop of farmers in producing areas increased. The price of eggs in many places dropped by 0. 1~0. 15 yuan/kg, and the price of eggs in Shandong market generally dropped to about 4.6~4.7 yuan/kg!
At present, the price of eggs is not supported by consumption, and the deviation of stocking in farms leads to the market decline. For the pig market, the current pig price shows a strong fluctuation trend, but there is still the risk of "retaliatory" decline. However, personally, the basis for the decline in pig prices before the holiday is weak, and there may be a significant decline after the holiday!
At present, the average price of live pigs in China hovers at 7.93 yuan/kg, and the average price of live pigs will soon exceed 8 yuan/kg. 5,000 tons of pork will be stored and collected on May 26th, and 35,000 tons will still be stored and collected on May 27th. Although pork storage is likely to continue to be more frequent, it has certain support for market sentiment! At present, the domestic supply of live pigs continues to be tight. In the case that the supply of live pigs in the market is in short supply, the price support of slaughter enterprises is weak, and the pig price may continue to fluctuate strongly.
However, although the current pig price is about to "break 8", the prices of corn and soybean meal rose too fast during the year, with the price of corn rising by about 6.5% during the year, and the soybean meal market showed mixed performance, but the international food price rose sharply due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At present, the soybean meal market is still rising by 20.3% this year! Domestic feed costs remain high, although the price of live pigs fluctuates, the profitability of farmers is worrying. In the first five months of China, pigs generally suffered losses. Recently, although farmers' profit is weak, there is still a certain gap from the overall profit!
Therefore, supported by the rising sentiment at the breeding end, the supply of live pigs will shrink and overlap in the short term, and the impact of pork storage on market bullish sentiment will overlap. Domestic main pig futures and piglet prices will strengthen, and pig prices will continue to rise moderately!
However, with the gradual increase of pig price by 8 yuan/kg, the slaughter sentiment in the market will be divided. In particular, the amount of second fattening slaughter will gradually increase, retail pig farms will be under pressure for a long time, the weight of pigs will continue to increase, and the slaughter mood will pick up. However, the consumer market lacks effective support, and the fundamentals of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic pig market are difficult to improve. The room for pig price increase will be obviously insufficient, and there is a risk of retaliatory decline in the market!
Personally, I predict that pigs will enter the gap period at the end of May and the beginning of June, which will benefit from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and pork storage. Pig prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, rising to above 8 yuan/kg. However, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, large-scale pig enterprises will go out on rallies one after another, farmers' mood will pick up, and the market will be hit hard by pigs. It is expected that pig prices will drop in June, and consumption support is limited. At the end of June, the pig price will rebound again, and the market will be sideways in a short time, 8 yuan/kg. After entering the third quarter, with the weakening of pig slaughter pressure, pig prices may rise step by step, and the breeding end will turn losses into profits!
As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the price of eggs suddenly "falls" and the price of pigs "retaliates"? The forecast is coming! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!