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20 12 what happened in the European crisis? Better have a companion, thank you! Urgent need!
Europe's population is aging, trade continues to be unbalanced, economic growth lacks motivation, and government debts in some countries have accumulated for a long time. After the financial crisis in 2008, in order to help domestic financial institutions and stimulate economic growth, the fiscal deficit of euro zone countries expanded rapidly, and the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP hit a record high. The proportion of Irish and Greek government debt to GDP increased from 25% and 105% in 2007 to 1 1 respectively. After a country's government debt accounts for more than 90% of GDP, it loses its debt rolling solvency to some extent. The European EFSF rescue plan can only alleviate the default risk in a short time, but it can't fundamentally eliminate the debt pressure, let alone bring new economic growth points. The ratio of mutual liabilities among financial institutions in European countries is high, and the sovereign debt crisis leads to the decline of bank assets quality, which is a huge systemic risk. Once the sovereign debts of Greece and other small countries default, the risk will spread to the whole of Europe through the balance sheets of financial institutions and other channels, triggering a domino effect. According to GIIPS statistics, the cross-border creditor's rights of banks in various countries have reached 51400 million US dollars, and if the debts to financial institutions and the private sector are counted, the cross-border creditor's rights of banks in various countries have reached 2.78 trillion US dollars. Among these externally held debts, Germany and France account for nearly 50%. In order to prevent the domino effect from causing the collapse of the euro zone, the European Union introduced the EFSF rescue plan as early as 20 10, and voted to expand the scale at the end of 2010/and transformed it into a permanent stability mechanism (ESM) in July of 20 13. With the deterioration of the situation, Italy, Spain and France are gradually shrouded in the shadow of debt. At the end of September, the EFSF fund was expanded to 440 billion euros, which can meet the refinancing needs of Greece, Ireland and other countries 20 12 years ago, but Italy, Spain and France reached 300 billion, 157 billion and 21200 million respectively. To this end, EU countries adopted in principle a plan to further improve EFSF's leverage financing capacity at the summit of 10 on June 26th, and planned to expand the financing scale to more than 1 trillion euros. In addition, 50% of Greek debt held by the private sector was written down, the rescue scale was expanded, and the bank capital was enriched in the middle of 20 12. However, unlike the United States, it is very difficult to coordinate policies among different countries in the euro zone, especially Germany and France. The bargaining process between countries and domestic political parties has become more complicated, and it is difficult to completely solve the European debt problem. There will be no final solution to European problems before 20 13 years. Italy accounts for 15% of the GDP of the euro zone, which is enough to lead to the disintegration of the euro zone and the global market will continue to be disturbed by the situation in Europe. The European debt crisis has not only brought substantial financial tightening pressure, but also the contraction of the financial system and market turmoil will bring about the expected self-realization. Since September, the financial market has fallen sharply, consumer confidence has declined, the manufacturing index has fallen rapidly, and the global economic growth expectation has been continuously lowered. Although inflation in Europe and America has exceeded the target range of monetary authorities, in the face of sluggish economic growth and high unemployment rate, especially the sluggish credit supply channels in the real estate market, European and American monetary authorities will continue to even increase the intensity of loose monetary policy. Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, American enterprises and residential departments began to adjust their balance sheets, and asset risks were relatively exposed. In addition, the Federal Reserve under Bernanke pushed the monetary easing policy to the extreme. In the face of China's depressed housing market and the risk of interest rate reset of floating rate loans, it is still possible for the Federal Reserve to launch quantitative easing of housing mortgage loans at the beginning of 20 12. The European Central Bank, which was relatively cautious in the early stage, will greatly relax monetary policy in the face of economic downturn. The ECB's bond purchase scale (SMP plan) has been expanding since August this year. Interest rate futures show that the market expects the ECB to reduce its benchmark interest rate to 0.5% in the next two quarters. However, Europe and the United States are caught in a liquidity trap to varying degrees, the credit expansion of commercial banks is slow, the growth rate of broad money is at a low level, and loose monetary policy is not enough to push the economy back to the growth track. On the assumption of overall neutrality, the GDP growth rate of the euro zone in 20 12 is about 0.5%, and the United States is expected to fall into the range of 1.5-2%, which is slightly better than that in 20 1 12. Japan's economic growth will be very good in 20 12 years, and the assets of US dollar and Japanese yen will remain safe havens in the case of intensified European debt crisis.