Yesterday, the closing price of international spot gold was 1255.20 USD/oz, down 1268.58 USD/oz from the previous trading day. The lowest in the session is 125 1.30 yuan/oz, and the highest in the session is 127 1.72 USD/oz. The daily line closes the negative line of the upper and lower leads. The strong upward trend of the US dollar index, the easing of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the weakness of crude oil are all unfavorable to the trend of gold. After the non-agricultural news last week, the bulls failed to reverse the success, and the bears went to the next city. The weak pattern of technical drawing remains unchanged.
Driving factor analysis
1. Institutional position: the world's largest gold fund ETF? Compared with yesterday, the position of SPRD decreased by 2.99 tons, and the position decreased to 797.09 tons. Institutional positions once again fell below 800 tons of water.
2. International crude oil:
Due to the poor employment data in the United States, the international crude oil futures price fell again, and the rate closed down by more than 2% this week. Disappointing employment data in the United States questioned the growth strength of the world's largest economy. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday, non-farm jobs increased by 6.5438+0.42 million in August, the lowest in eight months, with an estimated increase of 225,000. The unemployment rate in August was 6. 1%, which was in line with the forecast, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.2% compared with the previous month, which was also in line with the forecast. Some time ago, the accelerated economic growth in the United States seemed to be in sharp contrast with the economic slowdown in China and Europe, but the employment report poured cold water on this view, making the global demand for crude oil even more bleak. Brent 65438+1October crude oil futures fell by $65438 +0.0 1 to close at $65438 +000.82 per barrel, and once fell to $65438 +000.35 in intraday trading. NYMEX crude oil futures in the United States fell by $65,438 +0. 16 to close at $93.29 a barrel. This week, Brent crude oil futures fell for the third consecutive week, while US crude oil futures fell for the sixth week in the past seven weeks. The Ukrainian government and pro-Russian rebels reached a ceasefire agreement on Friday, which is the first step to ease the conflict. However, US President Barack Obama expressed doubts about the ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, saying that the agreement must be implemented before the sanctions against Russia can be lifted. After his speech, the oil price expanded its decline. The release of US employment data has slightly suppressed the US dollar index, but the overall impact is limited. A stronger dollar will curb the demand for oil, because a stronger dollar will increase the cost for investors holding other currencies to buy dollar-denominated goods.
3. The situation in Ukraine: ceasefire ≠ The situation has completely eased, and the EU has finalized new sanctions against Russia. EU diplomats unanimously adopted the latest round of sanctions, which are scheduled to be submitted to member governments for approval next Monday (September 8) and announced on Tuesday (September 9). European officials revealed that the latest sanctions plan was determined hours after the ceasefire was reached. Its provisions include: prohibiting some Russian state-owned defense and energy companies from financing in the EU market; Shorten the longest period for Russian enterprises to issue bonds in the EU from 90 days to 30 days; Prohibit European banks from providing syndicated loans to sanctioned Russian enterprises; Expand the scope of restrictions on petroleum industry technology and increase restrictions on the export of dual-use products; Increase the number of individuals and enterprises whose assets are frozen in Europe.
After European diplomats reached the latest sanctions, European Council President Van Rompuy issued a statement saying, "The new sanctions will increase the strength of the sanctions that have already taken effect. It will also strengthen the principle of EU sanctions and aim to change Russia's course of action in Ukraine. " Earlier, the two sides of the Ukrainian conflict had signed a ceasefire agreement.
Technical analysis?
Weekly: At present, the candle map has been moved to the lower rail of the weekly bollinger Band, and the third line of the weekly bollinger Band has narrowed, and the lower rail has a small opening downward. Smart indicators and MACD continue to deviate. After the triangle arrangement of the weekly line was broken, the gold price went down and closed below the triangle interval. According to the "Galilee Chart", the author draws the conclusion that the gold price began to fall for the second time in the week after breaking the triangle arrangement interval, and the theoretical falling target was 1 193. The starting point of the gold price at the beginning of the year is only 1 182 USD.
The attached drawings are as follows:
Daily line: The daily line as a whole keeps the middle and lower rails of the Bollinger Band running. Yesterday, the daily line closed lower again, ending the rebound pattern of the daily line last Friday. The daily long-short periodic moving averages are arranged in short positions and wound downwards, and the daily strong pressure level is also the line of 1287. The smart indicator is repeatedly contested near the oversold area 20, and the MACD in the figure continues to diverge at the second dead fork below the 0 axis. Combined with the channel indicators, the daily downlink channel remains intact at present, refer to the following figure.
4 hours: just pay attention to the strength of the rebound index after oversold. The overall weak pattern remains unchanged.
Summary: Today we are optimistic about the rebound, but the general trend is still weak and there is not much room.