The so-called "self-organization" means that the formation of organizational state is mainly caused by the interaction between organizations within the system, rather than being controlled or dominated by any external factors. As small as some investment markets such as stocks and futures, as large as an enterprise and a society, it can be defined in this way.
"Self-organization criticality" means that self-organization will naturally develop to a critical state. When the system reaches the critical state of self-organization, even a small disturbance event can cause a series of disasters in the system.
The last straw that China crushed a camel is the simplest analogy of this phenomenon.
So, is the last grain of sand the cause of the sand pile collapse?
Obviously not! It just induced this phenomenon.
If we simply compare the stock market to a sand pile, each of our shareholders is a grain of sand. The stock market went up, and we all piled up desperately. No one knows, and it is impossible to know where the critical point is. In a very ordinary trading day, in the bustling fire cooking oil, the sand pile collapsed.
Some scientists have calculated the critical state of sand pile effect, but found it almost impossible to calculate. Every grain of sand has so many uncertainties. If all the possibilities are really included, the existing computing power needs to be improved by millions of times.
The black swan event is unpredictable, and conversely, the predictable event is not the black swan event.
However, due to natural information asymmetry, the Black Swan incident is true for some people, but not for others. Just like the "turkey theory", being slaughtered is a black swan event for turkeys, but not for butchers. Similarly, the black swan incident encountered by the vast number of investors who were harvested in the stock market was not for the sake of the reapers.
Taleb said: there are two kinds of people in the world, one is like a turkey who doesn't know when the danger is coming; Another kind of people are always waiting for the black swan event.
Based on this understanding, we should strive to become sand sculptors and butchers. Stand outside the system and observe all these changes coldly with our acquired metacognitive ability. The "cold" state can ensure our sobriety and calmness. Although we can't predict the specific time period of the crash, we know that as long as we continue to operate in the current state, the crash will come soon.
Probability theory may be our best friend at present. We can know by calculation that the probability of winning the first prize in the lottery is as high as one in ten million, which is definitely not as high as the probability of winning money in the casino. In fact, there are still many people flocking to it.
This fully shows that human nature wants immediate feedback. Nile in Black Swan is probably Taleb's' self'. Even as clever as he is, he can't resist the erosion of the hippocampus by' bleeding'. Although I have learned through the calculation of probability that my longing will definitely come, the long wait will still make me scarred and exhausted. When the expected result comes, he will also be' trembling' with excitement.
"If you can't kill me, you can make me stronger", which only refers to the tempering of will. Compared with other parts of the body, it is hard to say whether it is gain or loss; Is it stronger or more fragile?
Among many solutions to the "sand pile effect", Taleb's anti-vulnerability may be relatively symptomatic. Establishing the strength and toughness of the system is the basis of resisting impact. If we can go against the trend and resist the harm of emotions, disapproval and short-term interests, maybe we can embrace the black swan incident and enjoy the positive benefits it brings. Of course, it is also possible that he, like the protagonist Drogo in the Tatar Desert, spent his whole life waiting for the expected event in the hut of hope, and when it really happened, he was already dying in the pub.
Having said that, I just want to say: the future is unpredictable!