"Take off (can't afford to eat)" ginger and pear
If we want to say what agricultural products have risen the most in recent days, there must be a place for ginger and pears.
It is reported that the mainstream price of washing ginger in Changyi was 6.05 yuan/kg last Wednesday, and the price of mud ginger in Anqiu Heibuzi market was 3.85 yuan/kg.
Many netizens have said that ginger makes people feel "unaffordable". You know, the market price of ginger has been unsatisfactory in the past two years. The market price of ginger once fell to 0.5 yuan/Jin, and farmers lost about 5,000 yuan per mu.
This year, the price of ginger has sprung up everywhere. First, due to the unsatisfactory big ginger price in the previous two years, ginger farmers suffered serious losses, and many ginger farmers switched to other vegetables, resulting in a decline in ginger production.
Second, because some ginger producing areas were affected by bad weather in the second half of this year, ginger production in some areas was more serious.
Thirdly, the number of positive infections has increased since the epidemic prevention and control in COVID-19 was liberalized. Without a specific medicine, people can only "go to the hospital in a hurry". Ginger has become a medicine for preventing and controlling COVID-19 because of its popular anti-cold effect. The market is booming, demand is increasing and prices are soaring.
Recently, the popularity of ginger has declined. At present, the price of washed ginger in Changyi, Shandong Province has dropped to 4.25 yuan, and the mainstream price of mud ginger in Anqiu Heibuzi market is 2.40 yuan/kg, which has dropped by 29.75% and 37.66% respectively.
There are several main logics that prompted big ginger price to fall back:
1, farmers are reluctant to sell at a very high price, and the freight is high, so traders have limited acceptance of high prices.
2. The market supply has been supplemented, the popularity of ginger has declined, the efforts of merchants to get goods have weakened, and the relationship between supply and demand has changed.
3. The impact of the epidemic is still there, and food and beverage consumption is still in the doldrums.
4. After the price rises, the demand for ginger as a condiment weakens.
After a while, the market will usher in the Spring Festival stocking stage, and the reluctance of ginger farmers will be superimposed. It is estimated that the price of ginger is likely to rise.
The price of pears has also risen sharply.
Although pear has the characteristics of high water content and high sweetness compared with other fruits, its market popularity is not as good as that of oranges, apples, grapes and other fruits, and its price has been tepid, even can be described as low. The prices of the familiar producing areas of Dangshan crisp pear and Huangguan crisp pear are only 0.5-0.8 yuan.
But this year, the price of pears soared like a rocket. It is understood that the wholesale price in crown pear rose from 3.4 yuan to 5.75 yuan a catty, crystal pears to 4 yuan, Sydney from 3.3 yuan to 4.75 yuan a catty, Yali pears from 3. 15 yuan to 4.35 yuan a catty, and the prices of various pears generally rose by 30%.
The sudden increase in pear prices is not due to the decline in production. On the contrary, pear production has been at a high level in recent years. In recent years, China's pear output has been above180,000 tons, and there is no shortage of market. There are three main logics that lead to price increase:
1, after the number of infected people increased, the demand for pear moistening lung and relieving cough increased.
After the price rises, farmers and traders are reluctant to sell.
3. Because the number of infected people increased and the transportation was blocked, the pears in the producing area could not be transported to the sales area in time.
However, with the recovery of traffic and the increase of rehabilitation population, the market demand for pears will weaken and the price will fall.
Peanuts and wheat that have fallen to the ground (can't be sold)
Contrary to the hot market of pears and ginger, peanuts and wheat are unsalable.
The peanut market is in a downturn. At present, the mainstream price of Jilin 308 rice is around 5.2 yuan, Liaoning 308 rice is around 5. 1-5.2, and Shandong Haihua rice is around 5. 1-5.2, which is obviously lower than the price of peanuts just listed this year.
Winter is not only the peak consumption season of edible peanuts, but also the season with high enthusiasm for purchasing oil plants. So why are peanuts in a "unsalable" state this year?
In terms of food demand, we should know that peanut consumption accounts for about 40% of the total peanut consumption in China. However, affected by the epidemic, there are many infected people, the market and supermarket traffic is not high, and the terminal consumption is weak, which leads to the slow consumption of peanut inventory.
In terms of oil plants, due to the continuous downturn in terminal catering, poor delivery of peanut oil, low operating rate of oil plants, small demand for peanuts and increasingly strict quality requirements.
In the face of low prices, traders' profits are not high and they are not active, middlemen have different shipping mentality, some of them have stopped working, oil plants have poor delivery, and their purchasing enthusiasm is not high, which is coming to an end.
In the absence of trading volume, peanuts are still light in the direction of peanut oil processing.
The two major consumer demands collapsed across the board, and peanuts "can't be sold", and the price drop is reasonable.
This year, the price of wheat once had a chance to break through 1.7 yuan, but now the domestic price of wheat has generally dropped to the level of1-1.625 yuan. Instead of falling, the price of wheat has shown a state of being valuable without market.
This is because the flour this year is not as good as in previous years. Due to the high price of wheat in the early stage, the market price of flour is at a high level, and the high price has a low impact on catering consumption and centralized consumption demand.
In the early stage, the inventory backlog of flour enterprises was large, and some flour enterprises had stopped or stopped production in advance because of the order quantity.
Some flour enterprises have completed their annual tasks, slowed down the processing progress of flour and put holidays on the agenda.
Second, because the price of imported wheat fell and the import volume increased, it seized the domestic wheat market.
As of February 23, 2022,65438, the contract price of American soft red winter wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade closed at 774.5 cents/bushel in March, down 5% compared with the same period last year.
In June 2022, domestic wheat imports were 1, 0 1, 000 tons, up 35.4% year-on-year.
1- 1 1 month imported 8.88 million tons, up 0.6% year-on-year.
Subsequently, with the increase of enterprises that stop production, the market demand for wheat will further shrink, competitive sales, which is the main grain warehouse, will be aggravated, and the problem of "valuable but no market" in the wheat market will become more serious.