A bigger decline may come soon.
A bigger decline may come soon. The next key technical price of gold is 1322 USD, which fell to this level in April and then rebounded. If it falls below this low point, the subsequent decline may be fierce. Until the price of gold falls to a lower level, such as $65,438+0,000, the demand for physical gold cannot offset the huge pressure of investors to sell.
Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said: "The next trend of gold is still weakening, and our goal is to fall to $65,438+$0.200 in the next few weeks."
The price of silver technology is unpredictable. According to the data provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, since 20 13, hedge funds and other large monetary management institutions tracked by the Commission have reduced their long positions in silver prices by 94%, while those in gold have decreased by 63%.
Frank McGonagall, chief precious metal trader of comprehensive brokerage service company, said that the price of silver futures may fall below $20 per ounce. "I am waiting for the next round of decline in silver, which may fall above 10."
Ananthan Thangavel, managing director of lakshmi Capital, a commodity trading consultant, pointed out that "the reasons for investors to hold silver in the past few years are disappearing one by one." He said that although the trigger point is not very clear, traders generally pointed out that as the price of silver continues to fall, the market is increasingly inclined to change the direction of betting. "Whenever there is such extreme fluctuation in the market, you will know very well that this is a short-term trader controlling the market and you will want to leave quickly."
However, Jonathan Krinsky, an analyst at Miller tabak, an investment research institution, pointed out that the sharp drop in the price of silver was actually good news for the future price trend of gold and silver. He said, "After the price of silver fell by more than 9%, it recovered all the subsequent declines, and the price of gold actually remained in the rising range. If you are a precious metal bull, there are very positive signals in this trend. First of all, while the price of silver plummeted overnight, the price of gold did not hit a new low. The intraday low of 1.338 USD/oz is still slightly higher than that of April16th 1.322 USD/oz, which can be regarded as a signal that the' potential' bull market is not obvious. "
Jonathan Krinsky also pointed out that "although the price of silver hit a new low, the relative strength index did not indicate this unfavorable trend, which is another unclear signal. Although this does not mean that the medium-term or long-term trend that is still very depressed has changed, it does indicate the possibility of a short-term rebound. "
This week's focus is on Bernanke
The price of gold is most likely to be supported by Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of the United States, the sworn enemy of gold lovers. The market focused on Bernanke's congressional testimony (May 22nd, 20 13) and the minutes of the FOMC)4 meeting in April.
The economic situation in the United States is weak, and Bernanke's dovish and banknote printing remarks will make people worry about a new round of large-scale banknote printing, which will benefit gold. However, unless the US economic recovery is completely derailed, the future will remain unchanged.
Experts in the industry pointed out that Bernanke is expected to emphasize the significance of continuing to implement ultra-loose monetary policy measures in his speech to cheer up the doves of the Federal Reserve. The minutes of the meeting may also show the specific situation that doves still have the upper hand, which will promote the price of US Treasury bonds to rise further, and the US dollar index will drop significantly under the influence of this news. The expert believes that Bernanke will reiterate in his speech that although the US stock market continues to rise, the overall economic situation is still fragile. Experts pointed out that the main reason for the rise of the stock market is that the low interest rate environment makes it possible for listed companies to reduce their share capital by selling new bonds and repurchasing stocks at low prices, while the overall economic pace of the United States is still faltering, which will enable Fed executives headed by Bernanke to continue to maintain the current easing policy to boost the economy.
Lloyd's strategists said in a report that the rumors that the Fed will reduce the size of its bond purchases will soon fade, because the Fed is "dominated" by policy makers with a moderate stance on inflation, and if there are signs of sustained economic growth, they will only adjust their stance.
International gold price trend over the years
1, the international gold price has entered a long bear market since it reached a high point at the beginning of 1980. This situation remained until the beginning of this century.
On April 2, 2001year, the price of gold bottomed out. Since then, the price of gold has started to rise. On March 3rd, 2008, the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price broke through the historical mark of $65,438+0,000.
3. After that, the gold market was reorganized by 1 for many years. From June 5438- 10 in 2009, the price of gold continued to climb, and in February 20 10, it hit a new high of $430.90 per ounce.
Since 4.20 1 1 year, gold has gone all out to reach a new high. On September 6th, it hit an all-time high of 1.920.80 USD/oz, just one step away from the 2000 USD/oz mark.
5. Since April 20 13 12, the price of gold has plummeted.
6. Since April, 2065438 16, the international spot gold price has reached $65438+$0322/ounce, which has bottomed out.
In the past 20 years, the price of gold has experienced a bear-cow transition.
From 200 1, gold began the bull market cycle of 13. With the plunge of 15 in April and the subsequent shock and rebound for nearly one and a half months, it can be said that the gold super bull market cycle of 13 has ended. It is not difficult to find that gold and the dollar are a pair of natural enemies. In this gold super bull market, the dollar coincides with the bear market. It is the bear market cycle of the dollar that pushes gold to an all-time high of $2,000 per ounce.
At present, in the case that the economic recovery momentum of the United States is obviously better than that of other western developed countries, the US dollar index shows a strong momentum, and gold is under obvious pressure. Considering all kinds of factors, it can be said that the American factor is the core factor that determines the bulls and bears.
There is an amazing correspondence between the price of gold and the American economy. First of all, it should be pointed out that the US dollar index is the embodiment of US economic data, and paying attention to the US dollar index is basically equivalent to paying attention to the US economic situation. The brighter the US economic data, the higher the US dollar index and the lower the gold price. On the contrary, it is another scene.