Here are today's details:
Although the international futures prices such as wheat fell sharply after the expected interruption of grain supply in the Black Sea, the supply pressure from the grain market still exists, from the spot market.
It is reported that following Ukraine's suspension of some grain export plans, Russia also temporarily banned the export of grain to Eurasian Economic Union countries last week, and the latest news shows that Russia will also plan to completely suspend grain export before June 30, and only part of it can be exported after permission. The varieties involved include wheat, rye, barley and corn.
Affected by this, the global benchmark Chicago wheat futures price rose again.
But as we all know, China's grain imports are mainly soybeans, especially the total grain imports from Ukraine and Russia are less than 6.5438+0.2 million tons, accounting for only 7.5% of China's total grain imports and 654.38+0.7% of China's total grain supply, and mainly corn and barley.
So, will the interruption of Black Sea supply affect the food price in China?
In yesterday's broadcast, we pointed out that at present, about 50 countries in the world rely on imports from Russia and Ukraine to ensure 30% or more of their wheat supply, most of which are the least developed countries or low-income food-deficit countries in North Africa, Asia and the Near East.
The interruption of food supply in the Black Sea region first affected these countries.
It is reported that Lebanon, the nearest wheat importer to Ukraine, has begun to seek to import wheat from the United States, Argentina and Australia, although it will face unfavorable factors such as high premium and double transportation time. Recently, the export business of wheat from India and Australia to Asia has greatly increased, and the price is also rising.
It is reported that in order to solve the supply problem, Spain will approve the urgent purchase of genetically modified corn from the United States and Argentina.
In addition, Turkey, which mainly imports Russian wheat, will bid for about 270,000 tons of wheat this week, and the supply of these wheat needs to be provided outside Russia and Ukraine.
Moreover, under the influence of this market situation, more and more countries have recently shown signs of food protectionism.
At present, the most obvious is the domestic market obligation management system for palm oil export in Indonesia. The domestic obligation ratio has increased from 20% to 30%, that is, for every 1 ton of palm oil exported by exporters, 30% needs to be sold at domestic parity, which poses upward pressure on the global edible oil market.
In addition, it is reported that India is negotiating a barter transaction between palm oil and wheat with Malaysia, and exchanging its own wheat for palm oil in Malaysia. Once this barter transaction is popularized, it will have great exclusiveness in commodity trading.
In addition, as the world's second largest exporter of corn and the seventh largest exporter of wheat, Argentina recently announced the suspension of export registration, but the reasons are more complicated.
According to sources, the export of agricultural products is the most important income sector in Argentina, and it is currently a difficult period for Argentina to negotiate debts with the International Monetary Fund. Relevant parties may hope to raise another $465.438 billion by raising export tariffs on related products.
It is reported that Argentina currently imposes an export tax of 3 1% on soybean oil and soybean meal, which is expected to increase by two points, and the export tax on cereals may also increase to 35%.
It is particularly important to point out that although logistics and transportation in the Black Sea region are facing difficulties at present, some countries are still trying to find channels because the food price in this region is the lowest in the world.
In Egypt, which provides bread subsidies, nearly two-thirds of the population can buy five steamed buns for 50 cents a day due to the sharp rise in international food prices, and some staple foods, including wheat, are prohibited from being exported for three months.
In order to obtain more relatively cheap wheat grain sources, Egypt is trying its best to transport nearly 6.5438+0.9 million tons of wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Romania.
As a price comparison, the current price of milled wheat in Russia is $405 per ton, while that in neighboring France is as high as $460. Even in Argentina and Australia in the southern hemisphere, the FOB price of wheat exports reached US$ 425 and US$ 395 respectively.
In addition, some European retailers have started to sell sunflower oil in limited quantities due to the blocked export of sunflower oil from Ukraine.
On the whole, although Russian and Ukrainian grain exports to China account for a small proportion, under the background of global trade integration, changes in international food prices will also have a negative impact on China's overall grain import cost.
According to monitoring, at present, the theoretical cost of imported soybeans and corn in China reaches 5600 yuan and 3200 yuan per ton respectively, and the import cost of palm oil approaches the historical high of 15000 yuan.
Of course, in view of the possibility that international food prices may be transmitted to China, relevant departments in China are also actively taking relevant measures.
It is reported that last week, China started to restart the directional auction of rice that has been stored for an extended period, imported silage corn from Myanmar for the first time, and continued to accelerate the pace of purchasing grain.
Data show that China imported 340,000 tons of corn, 255,000 tons of sorghum and 388,000 tons of soybeans from the United States last week.
In addition, in order to improve domestic grain production capacity and reduce the impact of high fertilizer prices on domestic planting, the state will continue to issue 20 billion agricultural subsidies this year, and will put more than 3 million tons of fertilizer reserves on the market from March to meet the demand for spring sowing.