In particular, on April 13, the Guangdong provincial government issued a new policy for dispatching live pigs this year, and notified it to suspend the transfer of live pigs to be slaughtered from outside the province to this province from May 1 3.
The upstream of the pig dispatching station has also become the fuse for the strong rebound of pig futures prices.
The price of piglets is higher than that of Big bounce.
The market's enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has been greatly improved compared with the previous period, which reflects the industry's decisive and optimistic position on the market outlook, and also stimulates the market's obvious long-term sentiment, which is beneficial to the futures market.
According to statistics, since March, the price of piglets in Sichuan and even the whole country has shown signs of rising, and the upward trend has become more obvious since April.
The average buying and selling price of ternary piglets outside Sichuan 15 kg has increased from 422 yuan/head in March 1 1 to 480 yuan/head in April 14, and the price of ternary piglets outside 7 kg has even increased to 485,500 yuan/head. At present, the price of piglets over 7 kg is about 335 yuan/head.
On the whole, the recent strong rebound in pig prices is mainly due to the following reasons: First, the impact of the epidemic has driven the market to form a hoarding atmosphere; Secondly, the strict management of quarantine tickets has affected the transportation of pigs, leading to an increase in pig prices in the south and a rise in the northern group market; Third, the current pig price itself is at a low level, giving the market price room to rebound upward after continuous suppression in the early stage; Fourthly, the reproductive base of fertile sows announced on April 18, 2008 has returned to the normal level of 4 1 10,000, which supports the market expectation, especially the expected improvement of Yuan Yue 09 contract.
The price of live pigs in China has risen for three weeks in a row, and the loss of breeding has eased.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced on April 2 1 day that as of mid-April, the price of live pigs in China rose slightly for three consecutive weeks, and stopped falling in 16 weeks, thus reducing the losses suffered by farmers.
Xin, Deputy Director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: In recent three weeks, the price of live pigs has rebounded, and the main producing provinces have rebounded to per kilogram 13.8 yuan, stopping the continuous decline of 16 weeks.
According to the new introduction, the average cost of pig breeding in China is about per kilogram 16 yuan. In February, a pig lost 174 yuan, and in March, it lost 327 yuan.
At present, the price has not returned to the bottom, and there is still a certain gap from the bottom.
If the current price is less than that in March, we will lose more than 200 yuan at this moment, reducing the loss of 100 yuan.
Holidays approach or support the rebound of pig prices.
The price of live pigs rebounded slightly. Is there any change in the price of pork in the market? What is the future market supply and demand situation? In Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, the organizer told the reporter that the average wholesale price of striped pigs on April 2 1 day was 16.75 yuan/kg, up 4.7% from last week and 17.5% from last month.
Judging from the situation of pork supply, the domestic pig production capacity has been slowly declining since July last year. At the end of March this year, it can breed 4 1.85 million sows, which is in the green range of pig production capacity regulation. In addition, the pig price has been running at a low level for a long time, and it is unlikely to fall further. With the recovery of expenditure in the later period, the pig price is expected to slowly rise to a reasonable range.
New Deputy Director of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: With the approach of May Day and Dragon Boat Festival, the cost may increase, which will further support the rise of pig prices.
In terms of production, since the output peak is around May, the increase of output will slow down slowly, so it is estimated that supply and demand will tend to balance in the third quarter.
The new round of periodic opening-up has four characteristics.
From June 20 19 to June 200210, the price of live pigs consolidated at a high level, and then quickly declined. In June of 202 10/0, the price of live pigs fell below the capital line, then rebounded slightly and bottomed out again.
Summarizing the characteristics of the pig cycle, the supply of pigs is still in a situation of oversupply in the near future, and the price of pigs is still facing downward pressure in the second quarter. It is expected to start a new pig cycle in the second half of this year.
There are four characteristics of the start of the new round of pig cycle:
First, all previous pig cycles were caused by pig-related epidemics and environmental protection policies;
Second, the previous production capacity has been greatly reduced;
Third, before the start of the pig cycle, there will generally be losses in continuous farming;
Fourth, the pig price has seen a W-shaped double dip, and the price has been adjusted to the pre-cycle level.
It is expected to start a new round of pig cycle in the second half of this year because:
First of all, the COVID-19 epidemic has repeatedly led to the reduction of group meals, tourism and other expenses, and the price of live pigs will remain under pressure in the first half of 2022.
Pig prices further bottomed out in the second quarter.
Recently, the supply of live pigs is still in a state of oversupply, and pig prices are still facing downward pressure.
In the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the slaughter volume increased by 8.58% year-on-year, and the number of live pigs reached the highest level in the past eight years. In the first half of 2022, the supply of live pigs was still at a high level. Secondly, the current production capacity is faster than the previous two cycles, and it is expected that the number of live pigs will begin to fall in May 2022; Moreover, the high feed cost this year leads to a higher loss level of breeding profits than in previous years, which will accelerate the de-capacity; Finally, the pig price bottomed out for the first time at 202 1 and 10. In March 2022, the pig price fell below the capital line again, and the current price is equivalent to the pre-cycle level.