On March 24, 2007, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a new resolution on Iran's nuclear issue, increased sanctions on Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and demanded that Iran immediately implement the relevant resolutions previously adopted by the Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, Iran indicated that it would not abide by the new Security Council resolution. Immediately, aircraft carriers of countries such as the United States and Britain launched large-scale military exercises in the Gulf region. At that time, a storm blew in the Gulf. Affected by this, international oil prices went out of this year's high on Monday. However, the rise in international oil prices has no obvious impact on domestic oil prices in the short term.
First, the Iranian nuclear issue is once again raging, and the US-Iraq war is imminent.
On March 24th, the UN Security Council held a meeting at the UN headquarters in new york, USA, and unanimously adopted a new resolution on Iran's nuclear issue, increasing sanctions on Iran's nuclear and missile programs, demanding that Iran immediately implement the relevant resolutions previously adopted by the Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and stressing that it will continue to seek a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. However, on the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki said at the United Nations that the sanctions against Iran were "illegal" and "unreasonable measures" arranged by a few United Nations Member States.
On the 25th, the Iranian government announced that in response to the new resolution adopted by the UN Security Council on the Iranian nuclear issue, the Iranian government decided to partially suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) until the Iranian nuclear issue was returned to the IAEA framework by the Security Council. On the same day, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also said that the new resolution adopted by the UN Security Council on the Iranian nuclear issue is "illegal" and Iran's nuclear program will not stop because of this resolution.
On the 23rd, British media reported that 15 British soldiers detained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the disputed waters of the Persian Gulf on March 23rd will be prosecuted for espionage in Iran. The purpose of Iran's move is to exchange these people for five members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard arrested earlier this year. After the news came out, American British bases in the Gulf and multinational forces in the Gulf entered a state of high alert, including the three armed forces of Saudi Arabia and the naval and air combat forces of Israel. What makes people even more nervous is that the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" quietly arrived in the Gulf on 2 1 and joined the American aircraft carrier "Stannis" to hold a large-scale exercise in the Arabian Sea. Accompanied by the aircraft carrier "De Gaulle" is the French 473rd Task Force. The arrival of the "Charles de Gaulle" aircraft carrier has increased the number of aircraft carrier units capable of attacking Iran in the Gulf region to four. The other two carrier battle groups are Eisenhower and Boxer. At the same time, the total number of American ground troops in the Gulf region will increase to 654.38+700,000, almost the same as before the Iraq war.
On 27th, "Eisenhower" and "Stannis" battle groups, 100 fighters and 1000 officers and men kicked off the US Navy's military exercises in the Gulf region. This is the largest military exercise conducted by the US military in this region since the outbreak of the Iraq war in March 2003. U.S. warships docked at an area of 0/2 nautical mile (about 22 kilometers) from the Iranian coast. Since the 22nd of this month, the Iranian navy has also held exercises in the Gulf waters for more than a week. Iranian state television said that tactical submarines and small ships carrying missile launchers will appear in the exercise. The exercise, which will last until March 30th, aims to prove that Iran "has the ability to defend the Gulf". For a time, the Gulf region was covered with dark clouds and war was imminent. However, Yabo analysts believe that although the United States and Iran are at loggerheads. But neither country wants war. At present, the United States is in a dilemma, while Iran insists on its right to use nuclear energy. In the short term, it is difficult to ease the contradiction between the United States and Iran.
Second, the international crude oil price has reached a new high in the year, and the era of cheap oil is gone forever.
Iran's geopolitical factors suddenly became the booster of oil price rise, and within a few days, the oil price was raised from 56 dollars to 63 dollars. On Monday, the price of light crude oil for May delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to an intraday high of $63.40/barrel, the highest level this year. Brent crude oil futures for May delivery on the London International Petroleum Exchange rose by $65,438+$0.23 per barrel to close at $64.45438+$0. Previously, affected by the global warm winter, people from all walks of life were generally bearish on the demand for crude oil. At the beginning of this year, the oil price once hit the bottom, hitting a low of $50.40/barrel at 65438+ 10/9, setting a new low of nearly 19 months. Since then, the integer mark of $50 has played a strong supporting role, and the oil price stopped falling, stabilized and began to rebound, and rose to $62.49 in early June, with a rebound rate of nearly 24%. It can be said that unconsciously, international crude oil futures seem to have got rid of the downturn at the beginning of the year, and the price has gradually climbed to a new high in the year. However, for the later trend of international crude oil prices, considering that the contradiction between the United States and Iraq is difficult to ease in the short term, and there are factors such as hurricane attacks and increased demand, the era of cheap oil will not appear again. Tan Yaling, a senior analyst at Bank of China, believes that the average level of oil prices has been rising in recent years. Under this main line, it is estimated that the average price will reach 65 to 68 dollars in 2007, and the international oil price may reach 80 dollars in the fourth quarter.
Third, the rise in international oil prices has not had much impact on China for the time being.
Due to the high international oil price, domestic refined oil prices were raised several times last year. Now that the international oil price has risen again, it is difficult to fall back in the short term. Will it prompt domestic refined oil prices to rise again? Yabo analysts believe that compared with last year's domestic refined oil market structure, this year's domestic market structure has undergone several profound changes. In the short term, the impact of rising international oil prices on domestic oil prices is not significant.
First of all, the domestic refined oil pricing system has changed, and the new refined oil pricing mechanism adopts the pricing system of "crude oil+cost". The new mechanism is no longer based on the weighted average of refined oil prices in new york, Singapore and Rotterdam, but on the average of crude oil prices in Brent, Dubai and Minas, plus refining costs, appropriate profit margins, domestic tariffs and refined oil circulation fees. * * * together constitute the domestic retail benchmark price of refined oil. At the same time, the new plan sets the international crude oil price as several price fluctuation ranges, with the middle limit of 50 dollars, that is, within the acceptable range of the market, it realizes the linkage with the three major crude oil prices in the international market. With the adoption of the new refined oil pricing system, the original intention of the country is to link domestic oil prices with international oil prices and promote the market-oriented reform of refined oil products. However, because the domestic refined oil price was only raised before, but not lowered, and the current domestic oil price was raised when the international oil price reached the highest point last year, it has not been lowered since then, so even if the international oil price remains at around $65 for a long time, it will not have much impact on the domestic oil price.
Secondly, China's strategic oil reserves have reached a certain scale, and its ability to resist drastic changes in international oil prices has been improved. Since 2003, China has started to build strategic petroleum reserve bases in Dalian, Huangdao, Zhenhai and Daishan. In the second half of last year, China accelerated the construction of strategic oil reserves in the context of the continuous decline in international oil prices. In February 2006,12.4 million barrels of oil were injected into China's strategic oil reserve, an increase of more than 50% compared with 10. China's largest importer of crude oil-Sinopec's crude oil reserves in Zhenhai Strategic Petroleum Reserve Base have increased to 20 million barrels, doubling from last month. At this rate, Zhenhai oil storage has been basically filled. On the 22nd, it was reported in the industry that senior officials in China said that China had started to inject oil into the second strategic oil reserve base in Zhoushan, Zhejiang.
Third, the refining capacity has been greatly improved, and the distribution of refined oil production and sales has been improved. It was learned at the "2007 China Petroleum Trade Summit Forum" held on the 20th that at the end of 2006, the primary processing capacity of China crude oil increased by 6.3% over the previous year, reaching about 350 million tons, ranking second in the world. The processing capacity of crude oil reached 307 million tons, and the output of four kinds of refined oil (gasoline, diesel, kerosene and aviation oil) reached 654.38+88 million tons. In 2006-20 12, the installed capacity of China will increase by about 654.38 billion tons, mainly in East China, South China and Southwest China. This will help to change the imbalance between supply and demand of "transporting oil from north to south" and "transporting oil from west to east" in China, and improve the distribution of refined oil production and marketing.
Guangdong province, which suffered a large oil shortage last summer, said on the 23rd that the supply of refined oil products was stable in the second quarter of this year, and oil prices may drop again, so there will be no "oil shortage" like last year. Guangdong Petroleum Industry Association analyzed the oil market in Guangdong in the first and second quarters of this year, and concluded that the supply of refined oil was stable. The important reason for the "oil shortage" last year was the widespread news of price adjustment at that time, which led to a large number of "hoarding oil" by end users and middlemen. In the first quarter of this year, the consumption of refined oil in Guangdong Province was nearly 5 million tons, and the growth rate slowed down compared with the previous year. After entering the second quarter, the oil consumption of automobile air conditioners caused by production in all walks of life, agricultural spring ploughing and summer will increase, and it is estimated that the demand for refined oil in the province will reach 5.2 million tons. However, since the Hainan refinery with an annual output of 8 million tons put into operation by Sinopec last year can effectively supplement the supply of Guangdong, it is expected that there will be no "oil shortage" in Guangdong this summer.
It is for these reasons that we believe that the short-term impact of international oil prices on domestic oil prices is still relatively limited. The tension in the Gulf region caused by the Iranian nuclear issue is the main reason for the soaring international oil prices. However, because the United States and Iran did not give in to each other, they did not really wage war. Therefore, the international oil price is still hovering at a high level in the short term, and the era of cheap oil is gone forever.