Stock market disaster is the abbreviation of stock market disaster or stock market disaster. It refers to the abnormal economic phenomenon that when the internal contradictions in the stock market accumulate to a certain extent, due to the influence of an accidental factor, the stock price suddenly collapses, causing great social and economic turmoil and huge losses. The stock market crash is different from the general stock market fluctuation and the general stock market risk. Generally speaking, the stock market crash has the following characteristics:
① Suddenly. Almost every stock market crash has a sudden plunge stage.
2 destructive. The stock market crash did not destroy a millionaire, a securities company or a bank, but affected the economy of a country and even the world, making the stock market lose all its functions. The economic loss caused by the stock market crash far exceeds the economic loss caused by fire, flood or strong earthquake, even as much as the economic loss caused by a world war.
3 linkage. First of all, under the linkage of economic chain, the stock market crash will aggravate the financial and economic crisis. Second, regional linkage, some big stock market crashes, will lead to regional or global stock market crashes.
④ Uncertainty. The stock market crash is characterized by a sharp drop in the stock market value, which makes a large part of the funds injected into the stock market go up in smoke; The stock market crash will aggravate the economic recession and the bankruptcy of industrial and commercial enterprises, which will also indirectly affect banks and increase their non-performing assets. In countries and regions where the stock market is internationalized, the stock market crash will lead to the reduction of investment opportunities in the stock market, which will lead to capital outflow and currency depreciation, which will have an impact on the financial market.
Since the first global stock market crash in 1720, almost every country or region with a stock market has experienced a stock market crash. 1720 The stock market crash in Mississippi, France and the stock market crash in South China Sea, England were the earliest stock market crashes in the world. 1929 and 1987 both originated from the American stock market crash, which was the most widespread worldwide stock market crash. Japan, Taiwan Province Province and Hongkong are the countries or regions with the most frequent stock market crashes in the world. The Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the southeast Asian financial crisis of 1997, including the stock market crash, all showed the characteristics that the foreign exchange market and the stock market plunged in turn.
In short, the stock market crash will lead to financial market turmoil in many ways, triggering or aggravating the financial crisis. For example, in 1929, the financial market was the first to be affected. The number of bankruptcies in the United States increased from 65438+659 in 0929 to 2294 in 193 1 year, which caused the whole financial market to be in an extremely chaotic state. The stock market crash has a great impact on economic development. The stock market is a barometer of the national economy, and the occurrence of stock market crash is often the beginning of economic recession. The stock market crash has led people to be extremely pessimistic about the economic prospects, leading to a sharp drop in investment, a decline in total social demand, a stagnation in production, a decrease in national income and a vicious circle in the economy. 1929 The global economic crisis triggered by the stock market crash is a typical example. American private investment decreased from 1929 to16 billion dollars to 1933 to 340 million dollars, industrial production ratio decreased by 50%, and national income decreased from 1929 dollars to 1939 dollars. Affected by the American economic crisis, the world economic crisis broke out again, and economically developed countries such as Britain, France and Germany all fell into serious economic difficulties.
2. Reasons for the stock market crash
2. 1 direct cause
After the stock market crash, many people put forward different theories. The main reasons for the stock market crash include: program trading, high stock price, insufficient market liquidity and herd mentality.
(1) The most widely accepted theory is that the stock market crash is caused by program trading. Program trading, which uses computer programs to calculate stock price changes and trading strategies in real time, gradually became popular on Wall Street in the late1970s. Program trading enables large-scale stock trading and futures trading to be conducted at the same time. After the stock market crash, many people said that when the computer program saw the stock price drop, it joined the stock selling according to the mechanism set by the program long ago, forming a vicious circle, accelerating the stock price drop, and the stock price drop made the program sell more stocks.
(2) Portfolio insurance is also one of the reasons. The so-called portfolio insurance is to sell stocks when the market falls to stop losses. There is a premise here that there must be potential recipients. But on that day, all the receivers disappeared, and the operation mode of portfolio insurance pushed the stock price down rapidly. In addition, portfolio insurance relies on almost unlimited liquidity, but liquidity does not always exist, and liquidity sometimes dries up. This investment strategy is not feasible when everyone wants to sell.
(3) Economist Richard Roll believes that market globalization is the main reason, because program trading is only prevalent in the United States, while Hong Kong and Australian stock markets with few program trading took the lead in falling on 10 and 19, so the sharp fluctuation of a major stock market spread to global stock markets in one day, because of market globalization.
2.2 Starting conditions
There are many reasons for the stock market crash, but at least one of the following conditions must be met:
(1) The macroeconomic fundamentals of a country have deteriorated seriously, making it difficult for listed companies to operate;
(2) Low-cost direct financing leads to "inefficient" financial and "inefficient" economic development, which greatly leads to a bubble and the stock price is seriously overvalued.
(3) There are serious defects in the listing and trading system of the stock market itself, which leads to the prevalence of speculation and the loss of investment value and resource allocation function of the stock market.
(4) Political, military, natural disasters and other crises have seriously hit the confidence of the securities market, and the securities market has psychological panic and cannot continue to operate normally.
3. Measures to deal with the stock market crash
Almost every country or region that suffered from the stock market crash has taken countermeasures. Emergency measures mainly include: activating the "circuit breaker" to suspend stock market trading, using the stock market stabilization fund to enter the market, repurchasing the company's shares, and eliminating market panic. In order to avoid the recurrence of the stock market crash, the construction and improvement of securities market regulations have been accelerated, effective market supervision and standardized operation have been strengthened, and economic recovery and development have been promoted to rebuild investor confidence.
4. The worst stock market crash
4. 1 The US stock market plummeted
4.1.1.1929 crash
1929 65438+1Thursday, October 24th. The disaster happened without warning. There was no obvious sign at the opening, and the stock index was still very strong for a while, but the turnover was very large. Suddenly, the stock price began to fall. In the morning 1 1, the stock market went crazy and people rushed to sell. By 1 1:30, the stock market has plummeted. Suicide began to spread, and within an hour, 1 1 famous speculators committed suicide. The number of shares changed hands on that day reached 1289460, and many of them were sold at low prices, which dashed the hopes and dreams of the holders.
This encounter not only befalls ordinary irrational investors, but even Keynes, the most famous economist in the 20th century, almost went bankrupt in this crisis.
From September of 1929 to June of 1933 and 1, the average price of Dow Jones' 30 industrial stocks dropped from $364.9 to $62.7, and the average price of 20 public utility stocks dropped from 14 1.9 to $282,000. The share price of American steel company fell from $262 to $265,438 +0. GM dropped from $92 to $7. Thousands of banks closed down and tens of thousands of enterprises closed down. From 1929 to 1933, there were four bank panics in just four years.
After the stock market crash, the Great Depression followed lasted 10 years. From September of 1929 to the bottom of the Great Depression of 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped from 38 1 to 36, shrinking by 90%. Until 194 1, the output value in dollars is still lower than 1929. During the period from1930 to1940, only 1937 had the average number of unemployed people below 8 million. 1933 About 1 30,000 people were unemployed, and almost1people in the four major labor forces were unemployed.
The stock market crash completely hit the confidence of investors, and it was not until 1954 that US stocks recovered to the level of 1929.
4. 1.2 1987 The stock market plunged.
1987 10 19, Black Monday, only three hours after the opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 508.32 points, or 22.62%. Immediately, the panic spread to other areas outside the United States. On the same day, the stock markets in London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Paris, Frankfurt, Toronto, Sydney and Wellington also fell. The following week, the panic intensified. 10 year 10 On October 20th, the share price of Tokyo Stock Exchange fell by 14.9%, setting a record for the decline of Tokyo securities. 65438+1On October 26th, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 1 126 points, with a drop of 33.5%, the highest in the history of the decline of Hong Kong stocks, which swallowed up all the gains since 1986+065438+ 10. The news of the Asian stock market crash was sent back to Europe and the United States, causing the European and American stock markets to fall again.
According to statistics, during the eight days from June 10 to June 26th, the wealth lost due to the stock market crash was as high as 2 trillion US dollars, which was 5.92 times of the total direct and indirect losses of 338 billion US dollars in World War II.
The shock of the stock market has just eased, and social and economic life has fallen into panic and fluctuation. Banks closed down, factories closed down, and enterprises laid off a large number of employees. 1929 The tragedy happened again. Fortunately, compared with 1929, the American economy maintained a relatively rapid growth at that time, and the stock market crash did not lead to the overall economic crisis. However, the impact of the stock market crash on the American economy is still huge, followed by a long period of stagnation of the American economy.
4.2 Japanese stock market crash
From 1989 to 12, the Nikkei average stock index reached 389 15 points. In the 1990s, the Japanese stock market price plummeted immediately. By June 1990, the stock index had fallen below 20,000 points. 199 1 rebounded slightly in the first half of the year, but the decline was even greater in the second half. On April 1992, the Nikkei average index of Tokyo stock market fell below 17000 points, and the Japanese stock market fell into panic. In August, 18 fell to 14309, basically returning to the level of 1985.
Up to now, the stock index has fallen by 63% compared with its peak period, and the total current price of listed stocks has dropped from 65,438+630 trillion yen at the end of 0989 to 299 trillion yen, a decrease of 33 1 trillion yen in three years, and the bubble in the Japanese stock market has completely burst. The securities industry has fallen into an unprecedented depression. In the two years since 199 1, the trading volume of the stock market has only been 20% of the previous one, and more than 200 securities companies have all made ends meet, and the operating deficit is getting bigger and bigger. 1992, the deficit of many large companies reached more than 40 billion yen.
In terms of foreign capital transactions, Japan has become a capital importing country due to the reduction of foreign securities transactions and the long-term surplus of capital balance.
On the other hand, due to the crazy rise of the stock market, enterprises are attracted to direct financing, and banks are forced to take venture enterprises and non-bank financial institutions as the main financing targets, which indirectly leads to the banking crisis.
After the bubble burst, Japan's economic situation took a sharp turn for the worse, immediately showing a situation of equipment investment stagnation, enterprise inventory increase, industrial production decline and slow economic growth. Even the decline in real estate prices has just begun to stabilize, and the wealth of the whole country has shrunk by nearly 50%.
At that time, the continuous rise in asset prices stimulated people's desire to borrow and speculate, and the Japanese banks' eagerness to lend eventually brought bitter results to real estate developers. The bursting of the real estate bubble and the inevitable increase of non-performing loans have brought a heavy burden to Japanese banks, triggered deflation, and made Japan's economy experience a more lasting and painful depression. Japan has experienced a long bear market. Even after the rebound in 2005, the Japanese stock market is still 70% away from the all-time high.
4.3 1973 hong kong stocks plunged
1969, a group of Chinese securities firms headed by Li Fuzhao secretly prepared a China stock exchange market-Far East Exchange Co., Ltd., which opened on 12 and 17, thus starting the general public to participate in securities and stock trading. At that time, the Hang Seng Index hit a new high of 160.05 and 197 1 on February 29th, and then the stock market kept rising, reaching a new high of 406.32 on September 20th, which was 1.5 times higher in less than two years. 1973, the first stock market crash after the popularization of Hong Kong stock market. The Hang Seng Index fell by more than 90% a year, and tens of thousands of people went bankrupt.
4.4 1990 Taiwan Province stock market plummeted.
From 1987 to 1990, the stock index of Taiwan Province Province soared from 1000 to 12682, a full increase of 12 times. At that time, Taiwan Province's economy had achieved an average high growth rate of 9% for 40 consecutive years, the exchange rate of Taiwan dollar against the US dollar rose from 1 to 1 compared with 25 yuan, and the opening of brokerage licenses were all important reasons for the influx of hot money. At that time, the housing market and the stock market were hot together. Due to the expectation of appreciation of the new Taiwan dollar, overseas "hot money" poured into the island. With the growth of residents' wealth, the prices of land and real estate in Taiwan Province Province have quadrupled in a short time. At that time, the island was completely flooded with funds, and huge capital flows greedily searched for various investment opportunities. 1989 in the last quarter, the average price-earnings ratio of Taiwan stocks reached 100 times, while the price-earnings ratio of other markets in the world was below 20 times.
In February 1990, the index began to plummet from the highest point 12682 and stopped at 2485. Ten thousand points in eight months. In the process of falling from 12000, many people repeatedly bottomed out and stuck to the end. From 12000 to below 8000, some people started to buy, 7000, 6000, 5000, and then all the way down to 2485.
5. China stock market crash.
The development of China stock market is relatively short-lived, but it still experienced two soul-stirring stock market crashes.
One occurred in 1996. 1996 after the national day, the stock market was all red. From April 1 to February 9 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 120%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 340%. In order to cool down, the CSRC issued various regulations and notices later called "12 gold medal", but the market continued to climb. 65438+February 65438+June People's Daily published a special commentator's article "Correctly Understanding the Current Stock Market", which defined the stock market as "the recent sharp rise and fall is abnormal and irrational." The rise was finally contained. The Shanghai Composite Index reached its limit at the opening. Except for a few small-cap stocks, which closed down all day, they still fell the next day. All the book wealth of all investors who held positions three days ago evaporated.
The other occurred at 200 1. On July 26 of that year, the reduction of state-owned shares officially began in the issuance of new shares. The stock market plummeted and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 32.55 points. By June 10 and 19, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged from 2245 in June 14 to 15 14, and more than 50 stocks fell. In that year, 80% of investors were quilted, the net value of the fund shrank by 40%, and the brokerage commission income decreased by 30%.
Compared with the foreign stock market crash, China's stock market crash has different reasons, but all of them have some characteristics: the trend of the stock market is seriously divorced from the fundamentals of the economy, so it is doomed to be unsustainable. At the slightest sign of trouble, the whole line will collapse, and people in the stock market are too speculative, either entangled in storm warning or chasing up and down by feeling, which will inevitably lead to a tragic ending.