Controlling risk seems simple, but it actually contains many things, such as positions, net worth management methods, decentralized selection of varieties, whether to increase or decrease positions, etc.
Trial-and-error is the core of admission rules, and stop loss makes profit run is the core of admission.
In the early stage of satisfying logic, there are many ways to realize it.
For capital accounts with no special requirements, I generally adopt a multi-variety, multi-cycle and multi-strategy quantitative combination strategy.
Multi-variety is to allocate as many varieties as possible according to the amount of funds. Multi-cycle means not only doing it on the daily line, but also setting some strategies on the hourly line and the 30-minute line. Multi-strategy is to use not only one trading system, but also a more comprehensive combination.
These strategies are in line with my core trading logic, but at the same time they can spread risks and smooth the capital curve.
If a fund wants to meet some special requirements, for example, it wants to be in the day, or it wants to break out, and so on. I will adopt a systematic trading method of subjective filtering and active timing. Of course, even subjective filtering is in line with my core trading logic.
Trading logic is the core, and this logic needs to have positive income expectations. As for the way to realize it, it's entirely up to you to choose.
I believe that most investors will not tell their core things. As far as I am concerned, I will not casually disclose the technical system that I think is valuable, at least until I succeed in investing in the industry, regardless of whether this technical system is applicable or not. In my opinion, it is priceless.
But you can tell me a little bit about my trading logic, without involving specific details.
I cook a dish, usually from big to small. It is to look at the big cycle to confirm the direction first, and then look at the small cycle to find opportunities to intervene. The big cycle usually comes from the monthly, weekly and daily lines. I only watch 4 hours and 1 hour in small cycles, and I don't even bother to watch the time periods below 1 hour, because the ultra-short time period is rubbish for a trend trader like me.
What to do after watching the time period? Is to wait patiently for the vibration. What * * * vibration? Is to wait for multiple cycles to form the same form. For example, both the monthly line and the weekly line belong to the bullish pattern at present (how to judge the long and short pattern is not detailed here, so I need to judge according to myself), so I will wait patiently for the daily line and the hourly cycle to form a bullish vibration again. In this way, multi-period vibration is formed, so the success rate will be greatly increased and the accuracy will be greatly improved.
Everything is possible in the market, and you can't sit back and relax after forming multi-cycle vibration. How to guard against market changes? At this time, it is necessary to observe the morphological changes of the hourly line. If the hourly line suddenly changes and the shape changes from strong to weak (how to distinguish the shape changes is not detailed here), then I will settle my long position in advance and wait for the shape to change further. Because the change of form is a small cycle change that slowly changes the form of a big cycle, not every small cycle change will change the trend, but at least it is the beginning of change, so we need to pay attention to it. If the change of the final hourly cycle pattern does not continue to expand and the daily line level is not affected, then the original layout can be maintained.
In a word, my transaction is simply "according to entry and exit". If my entry foundation exists, no matter how the market changes, I will never change. If my entry base no longer exists, I will leave decisively regardless of whether the market has changed or not!
In futures trading, I personally do trend trading, so what I pursue is to follow the trend and trade according to it.
According to your own trading habits, it is enough to do a good job in the safety and profit-loss ratio of homeopathic trading. You don't have to stare at the market all the time, and you feel more suitable for yourself.
For example, when the K-line can't break through the previous high to form a new high of failure and break through the trend line in an upward trend, the original upward trend will have the probability of ending, and the neckline will be broken and the position will be opened. If you enter the vibration, wait for it to develop on its own, and stop if it fails.
Trend, do not chase empty, do not chase more, use callback or rebound to enter the market. Stop loss is set at a position that can prove that the original trend can be evaluated and destroyed. The same is true of jiacang.
Enter the market correctly and follow the trend. Unless there is a probability signal to end the trend, you will always hold it and push the stop loss to the nearest support resistance level. The small trend makes it hit a stop loss and passively go out. If it develops into a big trend and there is an increase in positions, it will choose to passively quit or leave in batches as needed.
The potential loss associated with the position and stop loss distance should be within the financial risk tolerance range of the trading system, and it will not be done if it exceeds.
There is a lot of room for the development of homeopathic trading, and the handling of take profit and stop loss is better laid out, and it can even be simpler logically than the above.
In fact, trading logic can also be regarded as a trading system. Many people regard the trading system as a simple trading point. In fact, more accurately, the core element of the system lies in logic, also called framework. It is a comprehensive idea of understanding the market and understanding itself above the buying and selling point.
What is logic, the understanding of the market, the market framework of risk, the fundamental principles of leverage, positioning and profitability, and the complete definition of the establishment, implementation, filtering, optimization and finalization of trading principles, but many people always think that the system is a trading point, but it is not that simple.
Trading systems or trading systems are roughly divided into the following levels. Today, I will talk about the trading system from these aspects, and give some suggestions to friends who are still confused on the trading road, how to build and correctly apply the trading system.
1 trading ideas
2 trading signal
3 principle management
4 Risk management
5 Emotional management
6 difficulties in implementation
1 trading thoughts What is trading thoughts? I break it down into the following aspects.
(1) Positioning the market.
② Explanation of profit
③ Understanding of loss
The ultimate goal is to find out what the basic logic of profit is. In fact, trading is the same as any other industry. Just like playing games, there are some fixed formulas. As long as you build your own basic framework and actions according to this formula, trading is actually not a very difficult thing.
Next I will talk about the above points.
What is positioning? In fact, few people can find their own position. When you have a certain understanding of the market, you will understand that positioning is actually a very important content. Our seemingly casual thinking orientation will cause great harm over time. All these actions are the process of building a correct knowledge system and logic through some basic frameworks and achieving consistent thinking habits. For example, do you want to locate a large-scale trend, or divide a large-scale trend into bands to participate? This is your positioning of your trading, what you want, and what money you want to make. Before that, it was cutting the market. Many times the market is incomprehensible, but you can divide the market into two parts that you can understand and understand. The most valuable ability of a person is to recognize the situation and trade in a market that you can understand.
So the purpose of positioning the market is to divide the market, and divide the market first. For example, I can understand the breakthrough after consolidation, and I can understand the daily line hitting a new high in one month. Looking for profits in the turn-back band of this market has become a high probability that can be positioned.
It is very important to know the profit and loss. The establishment of the system is not to let you avoid losses, but to make your losses more reasonable. Remember my words, no matter how many years you trade, you are just looking for a reasonable way to lose money. Take trading as a business, and stop loss is only the cost accompanying this business. Unwilling to accept losses is a morbid trading psychology, including all optimization is definitely not to optimize the system to achieve the purpose of not losing money, but to optimize the buying point to make it simpler and finally make the action stronger. If a person has no choice, there will be action. If he has more choices, action will naturally disappear. Therefore, only by understanding this level can we know the importance of subtraction. Only one technology is needed, and if he continues to do it, he will form an action.
Actually, I've said it many times before. After seeing many traders who have really made long-term stable profits, you will find that you only need to turn your trading profit and loss distribution into small profits and big profits. Give up the list of big losses, and you will naturally understand that all your problems and solutions are in this profit and loss distribution, and the ultimate goal of all our actions is here.
These are all things you need to know about trading ideas. Questions about trading frequency, trend, rhythm, positions, etc. can actually be solved after you have established a correct trading idea.
2 trading signal
A trading signal is a simple trading point. Actually, the buying and selling point is very simple. I won't say how to do it here. I'm just talking about how to optimize your trading point. For example, if you want to do more in a frame or structure, then the core of our work is to filter out the downtrend band in a certain way. This is what you have to do. The frequency of trial and error depends on the frequency of your filtering. For example, if I want to do more at the hourly level when the daily line goes up, I will only participate after the market breaks through a certain moving average, then you can screen out the bands that the market goes down along the moving average on the hourly chart, and the probability of your success in trial and error will begin to increase, and gradually enter the current trend. Using the moving average is just a simple example, which means a way of thinking, that is, a filtering method. There is no difference between good and bad filtering methods. The higher the frequency of trial and error, the greater the probability of successfully occupying the market, but the subsequent loss probability will also increase. On the other hand, if your filtering requirements are stricter, the probability of your trial-and-error loss will be reduced, and the possibility of losing the market will follow.
This is a trading signal. In fact, shopping is very simple, but why do many people think this is a very important issue? Because I can't accept it, I am always reluctant to do subtraction, and I always try my best to capture the market correctly. This is the holy grail, not the method. There is no holy grail in this market. Only by accepting the shortcomings of a way can you naturally embrace its advantages. Take a lot of time to think it over, so that what happens in the future won't bother you.
3 principle management
In fact, every link in the trading process can be optimized according to the principle. The trading signal mentioned above is only one of the principles, but there is more than one principle in trading.
For example, if you are a novice, how to control yourself from losing too much? You need to establish a basic time loss rule, such as how many orders you make every day, and then stop trading after a single day, a week or a month. Although this method is clumsy, it is definitely a feasible way and very easy for beginners. In fact, the method is very simple, and the seemingly stupid method can actually have an effect. Don't care about those tall ways. It won't help much in the long run. What is really useful is rational thinking. When you can still follow this rule after losing money, your trading may shine with rational thinking.
Trading signals, risk control rules, including positions, trading targets and execution plans are also part of the principles. The process of trading is how to restrain yourself reasonably. What a holy grail is bullshit, more of a mental model. When you have this mental model, all problems can be handled according to this model.
4 and 5, risk management and emotional management
On the whole, these two parts are very important, but these problems that you think cannot be solved can be solved through the process of constructing principles and implementing them, but most people think that the most difficult thing is to implement them. Many people think it is difficult to combine knowledge with practice, but it is not difficult to do it. The difficulty is that you underestimate the standard of knowing. Many people know it through hearsay, others know it, not you. Just like many trading ideas mentioned in my article, many people just hear what most people say and think it is right, but you personally don't feel it. This is known to others, not on purpose. Really know to put your heart into it. What do you mean, you make mistakes and repent at the same time? This is not just a deal. Such people can be found everywhere in life. They say hello every day and then do something disgusting behind your back. Therefore, many problems in the transaction are not the problems of the transaction itself, but have a lot to do with being a person. Your words and deeds are different, and you are always doing things you don't say and things you don't do. What can such people do, just make a living in real life and work, but once they enter this market and these problems are magnified ten times and one hundred times, do you still have a way out? Therefore, I advise those friends who have defects in personality and have no independent will and personality not to enter this market. Entering this market will only kill you, there is no second way.
When you understand this, the two insurmountable problems of risk and emotion are actually the best solutions. The methods are all invented by people. The rest is to understand and do it. The purpose of knowing is to establish logic, and the purpose of logic is to persuade you to carry it out, just as you know that the risk is out of control and you have to go against the sky when you know that your emotions are out of control. Waiting for your result is actually doomed at this moment.
What can we do? Keep doing it, get closer and observe your heart. After you really know that you are an SB, you won't play these difficult things, and your mind is finally calm.
6 difficulties in implementation
The hardest part of execution is that you always go against your own principles, which is very difficult. The only way is to stick to it, feel and observe yourself first, and see clearly that you are a nobody before you can do things honestly. To put it bluntly, there is no good way. If you lose more, you will naturally understand. If you don't understand, leave. That's the truth, there is no emotion. Facts are facts, but many people don't want to admit it. For execution, the method is constant training. Just like professional athletes, trading is a very professional thing. Without training, thinking alone is not enough. The road is always at your feet, not in your mouth.
Having said that, this is my whole trading system. Many people may be disappointed and think that they will speak some useless things, but those who can understand naturally understand, and those who can't understand should also know something about themselves. People, after all, are often not enough. I will only give you an angle to see the world through other people's eyes. As for whether you can see it or not, it's entirely up to you.
Take the pit first and then tell me in detail.
First, don't do it if there is no trend.
Find your own operating cycle and wait patiently for the trend to be established before considering it, otherwise it is short.
2. Only when there is a trend can we judge the position of the trend in the overall market.
If there is a trend in the operation cycle, then judge whether the cycle is a reasonable callback and rebound of the big cycle trend, if so, give up, otherwise consider the operation.
3. If the trend can be operated, will it be reversed?
If the cyclical trend can be operated, then observe whether the small cycle is a normal callback and rebound position. If not, the trend may be reversed and the operation may be abandoned.
4. If the trend develops normally, open the position.
If the small cycle develops within a reasonable range, you can consider opening a position.
Six, according to the fund management and position management to do a good job of adding and reducing positions.
In the operation cycle, the trend can be operated, and the reversal trend of small cycle develops reasonably. You can set the maximum number of positions that can be opened according to the fund management, manage positions according to market changes, and save profits in time. Do a good job in keeping with the market and have enough funds to add positions at any time. According to the profit and market changes, lighten the position at any time to ensure the maximum profit!
So much basic logic!
The trend of the market consists of two parts: unilateral and shock, and unilateral shock cycle. Only one-sided market can be tracked, and I usually wait for the interval to break through.
The logic is simple. Shock and unilateralism always appear alternately. When you get out of the unilateralism after the shock, you will enter the market to grab this part of the fluctuation.
The interval can be analyzed in a period of 3-60 minutes, and the period that is too big or too small does not have much information. If the cycle is too short, the market is prone to problems; if the cycle is too long, the stop loss level is too high. These two situations are not conducive to holding positions, and the other one is too harmful to the principal, so choose the appropriate cycle.
Breakthrough is often the beginning of the market's re-choice of direction. You should keep a clear head in the incomprehensible disorderly shock, and don't be tempted by the market to enter at will. Only when the entry point and stop loss point of the interval are clear, the interval to be broken is an effective entry signal.
The amplitude of the general oscillation interval also determines the strength of the breakthrough. The larger the oscillation interval, the smaller the energy after the breakthrough. When the vibration amplitude is small, the breakthrough is greater.
The key to making money by breaking through the transaction is to wait patiently for the opportunity. The interval is often clear to you by the market. When you can't see a clear opportunity to enter the market, don't forcibly analyze the market and draw a reluctant interval for the market to wait for a breakthrough. It must be as simple as possible, and you can see that opportunities are real opportunities without any technical analysis.
Breaking through the trading operation is easier to get started, the logic is simple and clear, and the entry point and stop loss point are more clear. As long as the execution can be exercised, it should be the easiest mode of operation to make money.
Only do varieties with volatility greater than 9%, open more positions on the 7-week moving average, and short positions below the 7-week moving average, and strictly observe discipline! Repeat the simple method and you will be an expert!
For a person with a loss of more than 6.5438+0 million in 2020, there are really too many profound lessons in futures. In essence, futures are selling high and buying low. Sell at the highest point and buy at the lowest point! However, in reality, even if many people understand this truth, they still lose a lot! What the hell is the problem!
First, the timing is wrong, and it is taken for granted that it is over in the upward or downward trend, and the judgment is based on whether the price is too high or too low. For example, when the glass futures reached 1700, many people thought it was over, so they sold it in a heavy position. As a result, it rose to 2000, and many people exploded!
Second, you can't persist without patience. Seduced by petty profits. For example, I made 50 hands of wine in August 2020, earned more than 10 thousand and left! And missed the profits of hundreds of points behind, hundreds of thousands! Futures must learn to give up petty profits and not be too impetuous!
Third, you can't stop loss in time. For example, in 2020, Tea Brother will short ten lots of iron ore near 650. All the way to 1000, and finally exploded! Once you find that the futures are in the opposite direction, you must stop the loss in time! Stop loss should be decisive and timely!
Fourth, light warehouse! Although the light warehouse sometimes earns less, it can survive! In the futures market, everything is possible! My 1 10,000 empty glass position was too heavy, and I ended up with nothing! Save your life, you have a chance to live!
Fifth, frequent stop loss. Futures can't stop loss, but they can't stop loss frequently. Frequent stop loss will only keep losing principal unconsciously. It is necessary to set a reasonable stop loss space!
Five, luck! The futures market sometimes really depends on luck and has nothing to do with technology! I used to earn everything for a while and lose everything for a while!
Sixth, stay rational! God said, whoever wants to die, let him go crazy first! This is especially true in the futures market. We must be rational. According to the established plan, we should stop loss and take profit. Take it easy!
The road ahead is so difficult, one night in heaven and one night in hell. Friends who want to persuade them to come in must consider it clearly!
First of all, the trading system must be based on reasonable logic, which I personally agree with; Do everything with a full understanding of what you want to do; This is the correct world view, not only in the trading world.
For example, in my favorite Selected Works of Mao Zedong, there is an article "On Contradiction"; This article interprets the world we live in from the perspective of cosmology; We should look at the world we live in dialectically and look at all kinds of things in the world, instead of observing the world unilaterally and in isolation.
The book expounds the principle of universality and particularity of contradiction; I use popular words to summarize: the universality of contradiction means that everything in the world has contradictory movements in the process of development, evolution and progress; For example, in life and work, with your lover, friends, relatives and neighbors; Even the process of life is constantly solving various contradictions. So don't expect to live without troubles, that's much ado about nothing.
In addition, the more important viewpoints in the book are: contradictions are divided into primary contradictions and secondary contradictions; However, different stages of development have different primary and secondary contradictions; Mutual transformation of primary and secondary contradictions; And when we do anything, or need to do anything well, we must grasp the main contradiction; Taking solving major contradictions as an important starting point; After solving the main contradiction, the secondary contradiction may be solved automatically or simply.
Under the trading concept is trading logic. Back to the question, let's talk about trading logic first.
Make a big loss; Or cut off losses and let profits run. This is the correct logic of trading profit; But as a professional trader, what I want to say just sounds tall and reasonable, but it is not the case when it is implemented.
There are two main factors that determine whether the transaction can be profitable: the first factor is the success rate, and the second factor is the profit-loss ratio; The two are interrelated.
A good trading system must balance the profit-loss ratio and the success rate. (Establish the basic logic of establishing a trading system) Say two examples: What is the result of excessive pursuit of profit-loss ratio and poor success rate?
For example, profit and loss 1:5, and the success rate is 20%.
100 transactions: (20 transactions versus x5= 100)-(80 transactions versus x 1=80)=20 profit.
The trading results of this trading system must be profitable; But the distribution of 80 wrong transactions is irregular; There may be many consecutive stop-loss transactions, and too many stop-loss transactions will hit the confidence of traders, leading to changes in traders' mentality and distorted transactions; The original trading plan, trading strategy and position management could not be put in place, which eventually led to the failure of the transaction.
Many friends who don't know much about trading may be too happy to sleep after discovering a similar trading system, but they actually implement it and find various problems.
In other words, a set of logically correct, grandiose and reasonable trading logic simply won't work in actual combat; Because all this logic only thinks from the perspective of trading system, not from the perspective of traders; No matter how perfect the system is, it needs people to operate it; It also needs to be executed by traders.
Without a perfect trader, the weakness of human nature is a fact that no one can avoid; If human factors are completely ignored when establishing or setting up a trading system; Or regardless of the enforceability of the trading system, all work is in vain; Because castles in the air are meaningless if they can't land.
So the logic that makes sense in theory may not be true in practice.
"Practice is the only criterion for testing truth"; This is also a correct world outlook.
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