This financial crisis in the United States, in Greenspan’s words, is a once-in-50-year, or even a once-in-100-year crisis, and its severity may not be less than the disaster of 1929. The direct cause of this economic crisis is U.S. subprime mortgages. That is, U.S. financial institutions issue a large number of housing loans to people with no credit or fixed sources of income, and then make these loans into bonds and sell them to investors, and finally repay them. This bond is made into financial derivatives for hedging transactions. The market size of subordinated bond derivative contracts traded in financial markets has been enlarged to nearly 400 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 7 times the global GDP. Housing prices in the United States reached their peak in 2006, and the actual housing needs and purchasing power of the American people could no longer support such high housing prices. Therefore, when housing prices fell, hundreds of thousands of low-income Americans who had no ability to buy housing had to Move out of your home and stop making monthly payments. Originally, the supply outage was only supposed to affect a small number of investors who had purchased subprime mortgage bonds, but due to the exponential expansion of derivatives speculation, subprime mortgages affected the entire world. Investors who speculated on subprime mortgage bond derivatives and tried to make huge profits were hit hard. The 156-year-old Lehman Brothers is a typical example of them.

The financial crisis in the United States is superficially caused by subprime debt, but the following points are deeper reasons:

1. Americans’ excessive consumption

For a long time, the savings rate in the United States has been extremely low, generally around 1% and rarely exceeding 2% (China’s savings rate is 42%). In 2005 and 2006, there was even a savings rate of 1%. That is to say, Americans use all their income for consumption. If the income gap is taken into account, many people are actually living on their own, that is, they not only use up all the money they earn that year, but also engage in overdraft consumption for a long time. Whether it is a country or a family, as long as it is an economy, if it wants to develop, it must have investment, and if it wants to invest, it must have accumulation. If it is used up, it is impossible to have money to invest. Without investment, the economy must develop. It is basically impossible to increase income. A market without consumption support is an unhealthy market, and a market that is completely dependent on consumption, especially long-term overdraft consumption, is equally unhealthy. It's only a matter of time before the economy goes into trouble.

2. Ignorance of the manufacturing industry

In 2006, the U.S. manufacturing industry accounted for 19.8% of GDP, agriculture accounted for 3%, and the service industry accounted for 67.8%. The increase in social wealth ultimately depends on agriculture, extraction, and manufacturing. In other words, whether your country is developed depends on how many airplanes, cars, televisions, mobile phones, computers, clothing, medicines, and other products you can produce. See how much food you can produce. The United States has been neglecting the importance of manufacturing since the information economy created a long period of prosperity in the 1970s, and the proportion of manufacturing in the national economy has been declining. Except for a few high-tech products such as large passenger aircraft and military products, the United States basically disdains the production of general consumer goods. Even the automobile industry, which is the main economic pillar of the United States, has been left to its own devices by the U.S. government. The three major U.S. automakers have suffered scars and losses due to the strong competition from the Japanese, and are basically on the verge of bankruptcy. However, the Bush administration remained indifferent to the joint request for help issued by the three major automakers many years ago.

In 1950, the U.S. manufacturing industry accounted for 60% of the world's manufacturing industry. By 1999, it had dropped to 25%, and in 2007, it further dropped to 21%. Because there are not enough ordinary products to exchange with the world, the United States had an $800 billion merchandise trade deficit in 2006 alone (that is, $1 trillion in exported products and $1.8 trillion in imported products).

In terms of manufacturing, apart from large aircraft and military products, the United States is gradually losing its advantages in other aspects. If it no longer pays attention to ordinary manufacturing, the United States will sooner or later become like the former Soviet Union and only build aircraft, tanks, and cannons. .

3. Superstition on the service industry

In the final analysis, financial and other service industries serve the real economy such as manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and transportation, as well as consumer consumption. From then on, in a strict sense, the real economy is the foundation and the service industry is the future; the real economy is the link, the service industry is the purpose, and the service industry is parasitic on the real economy. Of course, because the service industry can speed up the operation of the real economy, reduce the operating costs of the real economy, and improve the operating efficiency of the real economy, especially after capitalism enters the monopoly stage, the financial industry's control over the real economy becomes increasingly in-depth, giving people a sense of There is an illusion that the service industry determines the industry. It is this illusion that makes Americans overly superstitious about the service industry, believing that as long as they have a highly developed service industry, they can create endless wealth, maintain prosperity forever, and dominate the world economy. Under the guidance of this superstitious thinking, the United States has made innovations in the financial field one after another, but in fact they are all in vain. This idling does not create wealth, but it gathers a large amount of capital and actually takes up a large amount of capital that should be used for production.

Now, the capital accumulated in the U.S. stock market, futures and other service industries is far more than that of the real economy. The transaction amount of the real economy is less than a fraction of the transaction amount of the stock market and futures. Everyone wants to gain wealth by clicking the mouse. The social economy will eventually collapse.

4. Excessive superstition in liberal economic theory

The most impressive thing about this financial crisis is the lack of supervision of the financial field by the US government. Subprime mortgages began to develop in the early 1990s and expanded rapidly in the late 1990s. Over such a long period of time, the U.S. government should be aware of the harm that this high-risk financial product may have on the economy, especially when such loans are made into financial derivatives by financial institutions and pushed to the market. Unfortunately, since the Reagan era in the 1980s, the liberal economic theory of reducing government intervention, loosening controls on capital, and implementing economic liberalization has become the highest standard for successive U.S. governments. A large number of financial and securities institutions disregarded the national economic security, took advantage of the relaxed environment to speculate wantonly, and made huge profits as a result. Yes, liberal economics has created the long-term economic prosperity of the United States and the free world since the 1980s. No one can deny the great contribution of this theory to the human economy, just as we cannot deny the Keynesian theory that advocates government intervention. It was the same as saving the world economy in the 1930s. But any theory has a realistic basis for its existence, and reality is constantly developing and changing. When reality has partially changed, we must revise the theory being implemented. When reality has fundamentally changed, we sometimes We must also decisively abandon the once effective theories and use new theories and measures to save our world. The recent U.S. governments have failed to realize the changed economic conditions of the United States and have been too superstitious in the theory of liberal economics, which ultimately led to the occurrence of this financial crisis.

China has used a theory for more than 30 years, but it has suffered great losses. I did not expect that Americans would make such mistakes.

5. Excessive military spending

In 2008, the U.S. defense budget was US$481.4 billion. Add in the US$70 billion budget for the US military in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2008. The U.S. defense budget will reach $551.4 billion in 2020. It is also calculated that by mid-2008, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq alone and other anti-terrorism expenditures had cost the United States 860 billion U.S. dollars. If the cost of nursing care for tens of thousands of soldiers was added, the war in Iraq alone would have cost the United States 2 trillion U.S. dollars. USD price.

The U.S. military budget is half of the world’s total military expenditure, and it is also the sum of the military expenditures of the top 10 military powers other than the United States, including Japan, Russia, and China. In 2007, the fiscal revenue of the United States was US$2.6 trillion, and the defense budget approved by Congress was US$4,480. However, according to the 2008 Yearbook published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden on June 9, 2008, the US military expenditure in 2007 hit a record high. record, reaching US$546.8 billion. This figure accounted for 21% of US fiscal revenue in 2007.

The history of countries around the world tells us that long-term huge fiscal deficits are one of the main reasons for a country's decline and even its demise. For example, the Qing government in China and the Taiping Rebellion that swept most of China failed to shake its foundation. However, the huge compensation payments (230 million taels and 982 million taels of silver respectively) during the Sino-Japanese War of 1898 and the Boxer Rebellion completely bankrupted the Qing government. . Russia, the iron hoofs of Napoleon and Hitler did not bring it to its knees, but Reagan's arms race and the war in Afghanistan completely brought it to its knees. It was precisely because of the huge foreign debt of 400 US dollars owed by the United Kingdom during World War II that it had to give up its status as world hegemon to the United States.

Maintaining a certain amount of military spending by a country is a necessary prerequisite for safeguarding national strategic interests. Sometimes it can also be a means to promote the country's scientific and technological progress and economic development. However, if it maintains huge military spending for a long time, it will eventually bring down the country's economy. Because military spending can only consume social wealth after all, but cannot create wealth like other investments.

The United States’ long-term maintenance of huge military expenditures will eventually lead to the decline of the Qing Empire and the Russian Empire.

6. Long-term neglect of trade deficit

If Americans’ low savings rate makes Americans run out of money, then the long-term huge trade deficit can be regarded as Borrow money from foreigners for luxury. 1971 was the first year in the history of the United States that a trade deficit occurred. Although there were two small surpluses in 1973 and 1975, the U.S. trade situation has not improved since then and has basically worsened. Its trade deficit Keep expanding. The deficit exceeded US$400 billion in 2002 and reached US$763.6 billion in 2006. Although it declined in 2007, it still reached US$711.6 billion. Debts must be repaid. As world leaders and defenders of world order, Americans know this better than anyone else. However, the United States, with its status as a world political leader and its super power in the fields of technology and finance, believes that it can control and eliminate trade through some means other than production and trade, such as currency, stock market, futures operations and other financial means. The fatal damage of deficit.

Indeed, these unconventional means delayed the outbreak of the crisis and enabled Americans to enjoy the economic prosperity of the Clinton era. However, the trade deficit must ultimately be resolved through production and trade. In other words, if you use so many other people’s goods, Eventually it has to be repaid with real money.

7. The United States has too strong a sense of hegemony

What is hegemony? The modern Chinese dictionary explains it as: using strength to manipulate or control the behavior of other countries in international relations. Here, we must strictly distinguish between hegemony and aggression. Aggression is when a country (or several countries unite) invades the territory and sovereignty of other countries, and plunders and enslaves the people of other countries. Aggression is predicated on seeking non-interests, but hegemony is not necessarily so. In the history of the United States, except for the early war against Mexico to seize Mexican territory, the United States has never launched a second war with the purpose of plundering and enslaving other countries.

The United States’ consciousness of hegemony, or the consciousness of changing other countries’ political systems, has a long cultural tradition. In 1620, the purpose of the Protestants coming to the United States was a dream, that is, to establish a free and democratic country or system and promote this system throughout the world. In the American subconscious, anything that is not democratic or free is inhumane, anti-human, and is an enemy of the United States and humanity. Americans have the right and the obligation to change anything that is authoritarian, authoritarian and unfair. The primacy of human rights over sovereignty is the most vivid expression of this moral principle in the United States. The continuous growth of the U.S. economy and science and technology has continuously strengthened Americans' sense of hegemony. Using American systems, moral principles, and American power to transform all undemocratic and unfree countries has become a major diplomatic priority for successive U.S. governments. One of the tasks.

So, when the French Revolution broke out, Americans rushed to France to support the Revolution regardless of their own safety. When the Japanese invaded China, the United States rushed to China regardless of their own safety. When dictatorial regimes such as Hitler, Stalin, and Yuren were enslaving their own countries, people and the people of other countries, the United States, regardless of the possible heavy costs, engaged in a long and brutal struggle with them and paid a heavy price as a result (in World War II alone, the United States suffered 1.013 million military casualties and economic losses of 335 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to $3.35 trillion today).

It cannot be denied that the interests of arms dealers were involved in the United States' participation in the war, but more importantly, it was Americans' faith and sense of mission that played a role. The planners of 9.11 publicly claimed that the purpose of launching the attack was to be dissatisfied with the United States' diplomatic favoring of Israel. Why the United States favors Israel can be seen clearly by looking at a world map. Israel is surrounded by Arabs with a population of more than 100 million who believe in Islam. This nation has disapproved of Israel's establishment of a state in the Middle East from the beginning, and has repeatedly tried to destroy the country of Israel by force. Without the protection of the United States, Israel would be annihilated in the wrath of the Arab world in an instant. It is difficult to distinguish right from wrong in the grievances between Arabs and Israelis. The current land of Israel was indeed the former hometown or homeland of the Jews, but they have been away for two thousand years. The Arabs have been cultivating and living there for more than a thousand years. Isn't that the homeland or homeland of the Arabs? However, Israel has been enslaved and massacred for a long time because it did not have its own country, and was almost genocide by Nazi Germany during World War II. Doesn’t it mean that human society has no obligation to restore their own country to protect their basic rights to survival?

It cannot be denied that the United States’ favoritism towards Israel is due to the huge role of the Jewish consortium in American politics and the United States’ consideration of Middle East oil. However, the responsibility to protect a suffering nation is also an important reason.

The hegemonic behavior of the United States has certainly played a huge role in becoming a world leader and seeking huge benefits as a world leader, but the hegemonic behavior of the United States has also paid a heavy price in different historical periods. . However, countries around the world have different views on the United States' attempt to transform other countries with its own strength and values. Europe is extremely grateful to the United States because it liberated them from the iron heel of fascism and the iron curtain of Stalin's autocratic system. However, Russia and Japan hate the United States extremely because it hinders their ideals of conquering the world, especially Sada. Dictators like President Trump and Kim Jong Il resent the United States for obstructing the continuation of their families' power. Of course, the most fatal thing for the United States is its partiality and support for Israel, which directly makes the entire Islamic world an enemy of it and is also the main reason for the terrorist attacks on the United States.

Perhaps the United States should really seriously reflect on its diplomatic strategy. Since safeguarding human justice is not universally understood and supported by humans, the United States should pay more attention to its own interests or at least change it. Ways to maintain justice and order in the world. Since it is thankless, there are some things that can be done by other countries or organizations.

8. Foreign economic policy is too weak

In fact, the United States is not completely blind to its long-term trade deficit. It is just because of the inherent civilization, kindness and kindness of Americans. At the same time, It is also because the United States is concerned about being an advocate of free trade and the maker and defender of free trade rules. Of course, the most important thing is that in order to maintain its status as a world leader, it fails to adopt tough trade policies to prevent trade deficits. Keep expanding.

If the United States could be like the Russians who directly confiscated the goods of Chinese merchants and then expelled the Chinese in order to safeguard their own commercial interests, then the United States would not be where it is today.

The current financial crisis will undoubtedly cause heavy damage to the U.S. economy, but it is an exaggeration to conclude that this crisis will end the United States' world hegemony. The United States accounts for nearly one-third of the world's GDP. It has abundant natural resources and strong technological and military capabilities. Americans' economic management experience is still unmatched by people from other countries. The United States also has 8,135 tons of gold reserves (China only has 600 tons). Of course, the most important thing is that the United States has an advanced political system and the American people have a high moral level, which enables them to maintain social stability in the face of any economic crisis. , and then be able to find solutions to economic problems in a peaceful environment. On March 4, 1933, the American people who had no food to eat were still able to calmly listen to President Roosevelt's inaugural address as proof. Unlike some countries, once they encounter an economic crisis, they will fall into social turmoil, causing social and economic destruction and making it impossible for the government to work together with the people to solve economic problems.

The economies of Europe and Japan after the war recovered with the mother's milk of the U.S. economy. The economic development of the Four Asian Tigers also relied on the U.S.'s nurturing. China, on the other hand, has gone from extreme to extreme in just thirty years. The growth of a backward agricultural country into a world economic power is also due to the milk of the United States. The economic cow of the United States has nurtured the entire world. Now she is finally tired and lying down. We sincerely hope that she can recover as soon as possible, for her own sake, and for the sake of China and the people of the world who still cannot do without her. October 11, 2008.