1, economic development
Economic prosperity has a great influence on the national debt market. During the economic recession, the market interest rate fell, funds turned to national debt, and the price of national debt also rose.
2. Interest rate level
Bonds are typical interest rate commodities, and the interest rate level in the money market is closely related to the rise and fall of bond prices. When the market interest rate rises, the credit is tight, and the funds invested in government bonds decrease, the market price of government bonds falls. When the market interest rate drops and the credit is relaxed, the capital flowing into the national debt market increases, the demand increases and the national debt market price rises. The price of national debt is inversely proportional to the market interest rate.
3. Price level
The rise and fall of prices will also cause changes in the price of government bonds. When prices rise, people will invest money in real estate or other items that can be considered as value preservation, and the supply of national debt exceeds demand, which leads to the decline of national debt prices. In addition, rising prices will hinder the normal development of the economy. At this time, the central bank will take financial control measures such as raising the rediscount rate to stabilize prices. In this way, with the increase of interest, the yield of national debt will also increase, while the market price of national debt will decrease. Similarly, when prices fall, the expected interest rate falls, which reduces the yield of government bonds and leads to an increase in the market price of government bonds.
4. Issue new national debt.
For the market, the newly issued national debt constitutes a factor to boost financial commodities. If financial assets increase with the circulation reaching a certain level, it will not put pressure on the market. However, when the issuance of new treasury bonds exceeds a certain limit, it will break the balance between supply and demand in the treasury bond market and make the price of treasury bonds fall.
5. Financial revenue and expenditure
There was a fiscal surplus in the whole year, and there were also cases where people could not make ends meet. When there is a surplus, the finance can deposit the surplus funds in the bank; When there is a fiscal deficit or short-term income can't meet the expenditure, we can achieve balance of payments by issuing public bonds to the society. The former makes the national debt market price rise, while the latter makes the national debt market price fall.
6. Exchange rate
Exchange rate changes also have a great impact on the market price of government bonds. When a foreign exchange appreciates, it will attract investors to buy bonds denominated in this foreign exchange, thus increasing the market price of bonds; On the other hand, when a foreign exchange depreciates, people throw out bonds denominated in this foreign exchange, and the market price of bonds falls.
7. Term of national debt
The term changes in the same direction as that of coupon rate, which directly affects the issue price of government bonds by affecting coupon rate. Long-term itself means immeasurable risks. Only by selling at a lower price can investors be guaranteed a greater return.
8. Financial policy
With the improvement of the financial market and the strengthening of the macro-control ability of the central bank, the financial policy tools of the central bank will directly or indirectly affect the national debt market. In order to regulate the money supply, when the central bank sells bonds in the market during the credit expansion, the bond price will fall; When credit is tight, the central bank buys bonds from the market again, and then the bond price will rise.
9. Speculative manipulation
In bond trading, including national debt, artificial speculative manipulation will cause fluctuations in the bond market. Especially in countries where the securities market has just been established, due to the small market scale, people lack a correct understanding of bond investment, and the imperfect laws and regulations, some illegal speculators have the opportunity to manipulate bond prices by driving up or lowering prices.
10, liquidity of bonds
The marketability of bonds is usually expressed by the amount of buying and selling, the number of transactions and the price stability. For bonds with high marketability, investors' funds are relatively safe and easy to sell when investors need cash. This bond can set the interest rate lower and the price higher. Bonds with low marketability should be issued at a lower price.
1 1, interest payment method
There are usually two ways to pay interest: one-time interest payment and installment interest payment. Installment interest payment is equivalent to compound interest, and one-time interest payment includes simple interest and compound interest. The coupon rate and issue price of bonds are different with different interest-bearing methods. Usually, the issue price of compound interest-bearing bonds is higher, and the issue price of simple interest-bearing bonds is lower.