The two main analytical methods used in the futures market are technical analysis and fundamental analysis, also known as basic analysis.
First, fundamental analysis.
In fact, no trading method is perfect. Basic information is suitable for bold and tolerant trend traders, and the basic analysis factors are often long-term factors, which have enough reaction time to understand. Furthermore, although basic analysis is one of the important analysis methods, its limitation is that it does not always have a direct effect on the price, because the sources of this information are different and the statistical data we see are quite different. And its influence on the market price is not completely corresponding. It can't be said that there is this basic information factor. The market price should quickly correspond to what the basic information implies, and the feedback of the market to the basic information is not always certain.
For another example, some people don't look at the fundamentals, and this information has no direct impact on him. At the beginning of the turning point of the megatrend, people can hardly find any basic information to show that the economic base has changed significantly. By the time the good news or bad news comes out, a new trend has been formed. With the evolution of futures price trend, it can also indirectly affect the supply and demand pattern of commodity spot. The function of futures market is to discover the relationship among price, basic information and futures market price, which is essentially a mutual infiltration and influence.
Second, technical analysis
The accepted principle of technical analysis is that market behavior covers everything. It is based on this analysis principle that technical analysis generally ignores the reasons behind price fluctuations and only studies the movement of the price itself. Technical analysis believes that the trace of this long-short player game already contains all the necessary information, but the reason has nothing to do with it. The reason is the same as a person riding a car. You only need to know the destination of the car, but you don't need to know the structure and principle of the car to get on it. Trading is like riding a sedan chair, regardless of structure. Understand the nature of investment, a series of problems will be solved.
Of course, some people think that the research technology analysis is abstract and simple, and the analysis mechanism is not easy to be "understood". People always think that studying the price trajectory is not as "real" as studying the supply and demand data. This is true, but then again, "vanity" is the performance feature of all advanced forms, and it is precisely one of the characteristics of the spot advanced form of futures trading. What makes people feel "real" is not futures trading, but spot trading.
The application scope and limitations of technical analysis-technical analysis refers to taking market behavior as the research object. Phenomenologically, every transaction of market price is an action under the influence of people's thoughts. In fact, the study of market prices and charts is not so much a study of the trajectory of prices as a study of the evolution of people's emotions and thoughts. It is the sum total of methods to judge market trends and make trading decisions according to the periodic changes of trends (the development trend of people's thoughts and the periodicity of ups and downs). Therefore, technical analysis is more suitable for analysis and judgment under the trend market.