First of all, in the short and medium term, the US dollar index is still on the upward channel, and there is no sign of turning its head. On the contrary, although the international gold price has recently launched a round of rebound, there is still no signal of going out of the downward channel. So it is still less risky to hold dollars now.
In particular, holding gold is different from holding international gold futures, which can maintain and increase the value as long as it is bought correctly. The result of holding gold in China is that it is difficult to realize it, and the loss of realizing it is more than 20%.
And holding dollars has a certain rate of return, which can be deposited in domestic banks, with an annual income of 3%, which gold can't do. In other words, gold does not add value at home, but also takes up space. In addition, holding dollars can also be used for investment. At present, European and American real estate prices are cheaper than domestic ones, so it is still a good choice to invest in overseas real estate.
Thirdly, compared with the appreciation trend of the US dollar, RMB depreciation is also an inevitable result, and there is no suspense in breaking 7 in the future. More importantly, the depreciation of holding dollars for a long time will not exceed the depreciation of RMB. If the dollar depreciates sharply, the dominance of the United States in the financial system will cease to exist.
Of course, buying all assets in dollars also has certain risks: on the one hand, the American stock market has experienced a long bull market and accumulated certain market risks. If the Dow Jones index and the Standard & Poor's index are adjusted, it is hard to say whether the US dollar index will stabilize.
On the other hand, countries such as Russia and Germany have shipped back hundreds of tons of gold stored in the United States and France in recent years. And it is planned to transport all the gold reserves back to China around 2020. This shows that gold still has a certain value-preserving function. What's more, international gold has fallen for seven years, and it won't be too far from lower regions.
Comprehensive analysis, instead of obsessing about which kind of US dollar and gold should be reserved, our suggestion is to diversify investment and make the two targets into a portfolio to reduce investment risks. Of course, when buying gold, don't buy gold jewelry for investment, but buy some paper gold or domestic gold futures. This will definitely be less than the realization loss of buying physical gold.