1, corn supply
Judging from the production situation over the years, in the international corn market, the output of the United States accounts for more than 40%, that of China accounts for nearly 20%, and that of South America accounts for about 10%, which is the main corn producing area in the world, and its output and supply have great influence on the international market, especially the corn output of the United States has become the most important factor affecting the international supply. The output of other countries and regions accounts for a low proportion and has little impact on the international market.
Compared with agricultural products such as soybeans, China's corn production is relatively independent, with low annual imports and relatively stable exports. Domestic annual output has become the main factor affecting domestic supply. Generally speaking, domestic corn began to be listed at the end of 10. When it went public, it was the time when the spot price of corn went down. In May and June of the following year, corn began to be in short supply, and the price began to rise, reaching its peak in July and August.
2. Demand for corn
The United States and China are both major producers and consumers of corn, and the countries that consume more corn are the European Union, Japan, Brazil, Mexico and other countries. Changes in consumer demand in these countries have a great impact on corn prices, especially in recent years, the rapid development of corn deep processing industry in major consumer countries has greatly promoted the increase in consumer demand for corn.
From the domestic situation, corn consumption mainly comes from feed and processing industry. Due to the influence of international market and epidemic situation, animal husbandry has been in an initial stable fluctuation state for many years, which directly affects the demand for feed, and then affects the demand for corn, and then affects the price trend of corn. In recent years, the development of corn deep processing is the increase of corn demand and the shortage of supply, which has become the direct driving force for its price increase.
3, the influence of corn inventory
In a certain period of time, the inventory level of a commodity directly reflects the change of the relationship between supply and demand of the commodity, which is the internal reflection of the supply and demand pattern of the commodity. Therefore, studying the change of corn inventory is helpful to understand the running trend of corn price. Generally speaking, when the inventory level increases, the price of corn decreases; When the inventory level decreases, the corn price increases, and the carry-over inventory level is negatively correlated with the corn price.
4. Prices of related commodities
The cereal variety most closely related to corn include fee wheat and feed rice. The price practice over the years shows that the above-mentioned grain varieties have a certain substitution role in the consumption process. For example, the normal price relationship between feed wheat and corn is about 0.9: 1.0. If the price relationship between the two exceeds this level, and the range is large, it will cause the substitution of the two commodities in use. Therefore, the price of wheat and rice has become a very important factor affecting the price trend of corn.
In addition, because corn is mainly used in feed production at this stage, the price change of soybean meal, which is also used in feed production, will also greatly affect the price of corn. Although they can't replace each other, the rise and fall of soybean meal price is often an intuitive reflection of the increase and decrease of feed output and demand in the market, and the change of corn price will also be affected by the change of feed demand.
The influence of climate
As an agricultural product, the spot price and futures price of corn will be affected by weather factors. During sowing and growing, the improvement of weather conditions will change the yield of corn from decreasing to increasing, and lead to the change of psychological expectation of supply and demand, and the price of corn will face downward pressure. On the contrary, corn prices will induce the expectation of long-term drought or other adverse weather factors leading to tight supply, which will generate the driving force for price increase.
As the United States is the largest corn producer and exporter in the world, not only the domestic weather changes in China will have an impact on China futures prices, but also the weather changes in the United States will have a greater impact on China corn prices, and the weather changes in other major producing countries such as South America will also have a certain impact on China corn prices. Because the United States and China are at the same latitude, the planting and growing periods of corn in the two countries are basically the same. April-September every year is the time to speculate on the corn planting area and weather (mainly reflecting the growth of crops) in the two countries, and the weather from South American corn producing area 10 to March next year has become one of the factors concerned by the futures market. Under normal circumstances, the price of corn began to fall when the supply reached the highest during the harvest period, and reached a high point when the supply was in short supply in spring and early summer and the output of new works was uncertain. In the middle and late summer solstice, the output of new works will gradually become clear, but it is also the most critical period affected by the weather. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the fact that corn prices will fall before the harvest period. The response degree of corn price to weather change ultimately depends on the overall supply and demand of the market.
(C) the economic cycle
The world economy is constantly developing in the cyclical alternation of prosperity and recession. Economic cycle is an inevitable economic fluctuation in modern economic society and one of the basic characteristics of modern economy. In the economic cycle, fluctuations in economic activities occur in almost all economic sectors. Therefore, the economic cycle is the fluctuation of the whole economy rather than the fluctuation of the local economy. The basic index to measure the overall economic situation is national income, and the economic cycle is also characterized by the fluctuation of national income, which leads to the fluctuation of output, employment, price level and interest rate. Economic cycle appears repeatedly in economic operation, and generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression. Affected by this, corn prices will also fluctuate. From a macro perspective, the economic cycle is one of the most important factors.
(4) Currency exchange rate
No matter whether RMB or USD is used as the currency of corn value, the fluctuation of real monetary value will inevitably affect the spot price of corn and the futures price. Because financial assets and commodity futures have certain linkage, generally speaking, when the currency depreciates, the price of corn futures will rise accordingly; When the currency appreciates, the futures price will fall. Therefore, the currency exchange rate is another important factor that determines the supply, demand and economic cycle of corn futures prices. From the relationship between the trend of CBOT corn and other commodity futures and the trend of the US dollar since 2002, it can be seen that the depreciation of the US dollar is one of the main factors to promote the rise of commodity futures prices.
The impact of relevant national policies
The national grain industry policy has always influenced or even influenced the corn market and corn price. Since the mid-1980s, China has been committed to the market-oriented reform of grain, from 1985 "contract ordering, state ordering and price dual-track system" to 1997, and then to 1998 "three policies and one change". After years of reform, China's corn market has basically reached a completely market-oriented operation, and corn prices have basically fully reflected market supply and demand, but related industrial policies, import and export policies, reserve policies and monetary policies will still have an important impact on the corn market and its price trend, which needs attention.
(vi) Other factors
In addition to the above five main aspects, in the process of sowing and growing corn, we should also pay attention to the influence of domestic economic prosperity, political situation, military action and some unexpected events on the price trend of corn.