The formation of stock index futures price;
The stock index futures price is always based on the spot price of its own subject matter, and it is impossible to be completely out of touch with the spot price of the stock index;
In the positive market where the stock index futures price is higher than the stock index spot price, the stock index futures price will eventually drop to the level of the stock index spot price, or the stock index spot price will eventually rise to the level of the stock index futures price, and the two will be combined.
The price of stock index futures is influenced by many factors, including macroeconomic factors and psychological factors of investors or speculators.
Main factors affecting the price of stock index futures:
1, the long and short supply and demand relationship of futures contracts. Stock index futures itself has no specific physical assets, so its price changes are greatly influenced by the futures market and the relationship between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, futures and contract prices fall; On the contrary, when long-term supply is less than demand, futures and contract prices will rise.
2. The trend of spot stock market directly affects the price of stock index futures. In particular, the stock price changes of large-cap stocks in the underlying index of stock index futures often have a great influence on the rise and fall of stock index, and also drive the changes of stock index futures prices. Stock index futures investors tend to pay attention to the stock price trend of large-cap stocks or active stocks in stock indexes.
3. The psychological factors of investors will also affect the price of stock index futures. What people usually call "popularity" reflects traders' confidence in the market, or confidence in the future stock market. When "popularity" is high, even if the stock market index at that time is not high, the market price of stock index futures will rise; On the other hand, if "popularity" declines, the market price of stock index futures will fall even if the stock market index is high at that time.
4. From the perspective of the stock market, the economic cycle of the stock market affects the price of stock index futures. Because the price of stock index futures is based on the spot market, and the change of stock market is affected by the economic cycle, the price of stock index futures will also rise and fall with the change of economic cycle.
5. From a policy perspective, the policies formulated by the government will also directly affect the price of stock index futures. In addition, many macro variables, such as inflation and exchange rate changes, will affect the prices of stock index futures and contracts to varying degrees.