The basis of futures is only bullish. A positive basis means that the spot price is higher than the futures price, and it also means that there is a shortage of spot materials. The shortage of materials will lead to a shortage of the market, so you can make more futures contracts. A negative basis indicates that the spot price is lower than the futures price, while a low spot price indicates that there are too many spot goods in stock at this time, which will lead to oversupply, and futures contracts can be shorted.

Futures basis refers to the difference between the current futures price and the spot price.

Theoretically, the futures price is the market's forecast of the future spot market price, and there is a close relationship between them. Due to the similarity of influencing factors, futures prices and spot prices often show a relationship of ups and downs; However, the influencing factors are not exactly the same, so the changes of the two are not completely consistent, and the relationship between spot price and futures price can be described by basis. Basis is the difference between the spot price of a commodity in a specific place and the price of a specific futures contract of the same commodity. The basis is sometimes positive (called the inverse market) and sometimes negative (called the positive market). Therefore, the basis is a dynamic indicator of the actual operation change between the futures price and the spot price. Basis mainly reflects the transportation cost and holding cost between spot and futures markets.

Basis calculation formula: basis = spot price-futures price.

Expression form of basis difference:

1. Positive market. The basis is negative, and the monthly contract spread is based on the holding cost. Theoretically, negative basis has an upper limit. If the absolute value of basis exceeds the holding cost, it will lead to arbitrage, thus correcting its unreasonable price difference.

2. Reverse market. The basis is positive, the market is empty, the holding cost is negative, and the recent price is higher than the forward price. There is no upper limit for the price difference, depending on the degree of shortage.

Basis operation:

In the specific operation, the party holding the commodity can sell the basis and lock the price of the commodity, thus locking the profit; The party that needs to buy goods in the future can buy the basis, avoid the risk of price increase and lock in the cost. Both need to be hedged in the futures market. A batch of goods can be counted many times. Compared with pure futures hedging, the pricing method of "futures spot price+basis" gives enterprises more price choices. Through this model, the trade risk of the enterprise itself is only a relative price change, not a traditional absolute price change.

In the basis transaction, the basis level is quoted by the seller, and the buyer chooses whether to accept this quotation. The lower the basis, the more favorable it is to the buyer, and the greater the possibility of transaction.