1. Reasons for the financial crisis: The credit expansion and the bursting of the economic bubble caused by the virtual economy are the main reasons for the financial crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis is the fuse. Sub-prime bonds are actually only $600 billion, which caused such a big financial crisis because of following the trend, that is, people's psychological expectations. Herd effect refers to the existence of investors in the market who have not formed their own expectations or obtained first-hand information, and they will change themselves according to the behavior of other investors. Theoretically, herding behavior will aggravate market fluctuation and become the key to the success of leaders' behavior. In the following situations, sesame seed cake is the leader. In the real economy, subprime mortgage is the leader.
2. From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: two people sell baked wheat cakes, each selling 20 cakes a day (because the demand for baked wheat cakes is only 40), and the output value of one yuan per day is 40 yuan. Later, they discussed and bought 100(A bought it from B and B 100 bought it from A 100).
If the price of sesame cakes traded with each other is 5 yuan, the daily transaction amount is 1040 yuan. At this time, A and B will raise the market biscuits to 2 yuan. Some people heard that sesame seed cakes 1 were sold in 5 yuan, but when they saw that there was only 2 yuan in the market, they quickly bought them. -The bubble economy came into being.
Baked sesame seeds can't be cooked at once, so buy forward cakes. A, Otsuichi increased the number of baked wheat cakes (up to 100 per day), on the other hand, it sold forward baked wheat cakes, and at the same time began to issue baked wheat cakes bonds. Buyers use cash and mortgages to buy. -Financing, financial intervention.
Some people want to buy it, and they have neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subordinated biscuit bonds to buy insurance from insurance institutions-subprime bonds have planted seeds for the subprime mortgage crisis.
One day, I found that I couldn't eat the biscuits I bought. If it is stored in one place and moldy, I will sell it soon, even if the price is lower. The bubble burst.
This is how the financial crisis broke out. Cookie shop layoffs (as long as 40 cookies a day)-unemployment; Sesame cake bonds become waste paper-subprime mortgage crisis
Mortgage loan (collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of the lending bank, the bankruptcy of the insurance company and so on. -Financial crisis
In the process from subprime mortgage crisis to financial crisis, the financial leverage of financial institutions and the issuance and circulation of financial derivatives have played an amplification role.
3. The financial crisis has spread all over the world, affecting China. Part of the country's foreign exchange reserves are lost, making it difficult to export. Economic growth slows down, unemployment increases, people's income declines, consumption decreases, and the market is depressed. If it is serious, it will cause political instability. Compared with European countries (such as Detroit Motor City), the financial crisis has little impact on China, because China's economy is separated from the international economy to some extent. China's RMB is strictly managed under the capital account, and the impact of international hot money is not great. Now, with more than 70 banks in the United States tending to close down, China's financial system is running well and its economy is growing at a certain speed. At the same time, the state is also taking measures such as expanding finance, reducing the deposit reserve ratio and stimulating domestic demand of 4 trillion yuan. Now, the RMB exchange rate has been lowered. If all macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, China needs about 1 year.
In view of the negative effects of the financial crisis, such as economic contraction and increasing unemployment, there are mainly the following policies and measures. It should be said that these policies and measures are related to national macroeconomic goals such as economic growth, inflation, unemployment and balance of payments, and will have a positive impact:
(1) Since July 2008, the monetary policy has been substantially adjusted in a timely manner. Reduce the impact of the open market, stop issuing 3-year central bank bills, reduce the frequency of issuing 1 year and 3-month central bank bills, guide the interest rate of central bank bills to decline appropriately, and ensure liquidity supply.
(2) loose monetary policy. In September, 65438+ 10, 165438+ 10, the benchmark interest rate was lowered for four consecutive times and the deposit reserve ratio was lowered for three times. The deposit reserve ratio decreased, and the benchmark interest rate of loans decreased, with the purpose of increasing the money supply in the market and expanding investment and consumption.
(3) On1October 27th, 2008, 10, a 30% discount on the interest rate of the first home loan was also implemented; Support residents to purchase ordinary self-occupied housing and improved ordinary housing for the first time.
(4) The restrictions on the credit planning of commercial banks have been cancelled.
(5) Insist on differential treatment, maintain pressure, and encourage financial institutions to increase loans for reconstruction of disaster areas, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and small and medium-sized enterprises.
(6) Promoting foreign trade: the import and export industry bears the brunt, with many employees (according to statistics, it has reached 1 100 million). First, increase the export tax rebate; Second, RMB appreciation is a means to increase export competitiveness;
(7) Foreign economic cooperation and coordination (such as currency swap among China, Japan and South Korea). ).
These are the main monetary policies and other policies.
(1) loose fiscal policy: tax reduction (reduction of securities transaction tax and cancellation of interest tax have been implemented) and expansion of government expenditure (4 trillion to stimulate domestic demand is being implemented);
(2) Promoting foreign trade: the import and export industry bears the brunt, with a large number of employees (according to statistics, it has reached 1 100 million). First, increase the export tax rebate; Second, RMB appreciation is a means to increase export competitiveness;
(3) Reduce the burden on enterprises: adjust the labor law, etc.
(4) Strengthen public expenditure on social security/medical care, and maintain the stability of social and economic development environment.