Ma Chunsheng, general manager of Qingdao Jianyi Food Co., Ltd. said: "Most of the sugar sold in Qingdao market is produced in Guangxi, but this year, due to climate reasons, the sugar production in Guangxi, the main sugar producing area, has declined. I think the decline in output is the reason for the increase in the price of white sugar. " Sun, manager of Qingdao Sales Department of China International Futures Co., Ltd., expressed the same view. He believes that reducing production will lead to a shortage of sugar, and the price of sugar will inevitably rise.
Abroad, due to the increase of domestic sugar consumption, Thailand's export volume will decrease accordingly. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently thought that Thailand's sugar production is expected to drop from 6.93 million tons in 2009 10 to 6.87 million tons in 200910, and its sugar export will also drop from 5.9 million tons to 4.7 million tons. Up to now, Russia has produced beet sugar 1 155000 tons, which is 12 100000 tons less than the same period last year. Czarnikow, an international trader based in London, said recently that after two consecutive crop seasons with severe supply shortages, the global sugar stocks in the 2010/1crop season are difficult to recover in a short time, and good fundamentals will still support the rise of sugar prices. Although both Brazil and India are increasing their production, many sugar-producing countries have also reduced their production due to weather problems, and there is a strong demand for replenishment in importing countries. Compared with the increased production in Brazil and India, the market supply is still tight. Therefore, the rock sugar market has soared for seven consecutive trading days, which has a good demonstration and driving effect on the domestic sugar market.
Domestically, I personally think that the rise in sugar prices against the market has a certain relationship with the involvement of hot money in speculation. Excess money, that is, the flow of hot money, is first reflected in the trading market of agricultural products such as mung beans and garlic. Now that the state has issued a policy to curb the excessive growth of real estate prices, hot money will inevitably withdraw from the property market and flow to places where high profits can be maintained. The recent surge in sugar prices shows the trend of hot money. Behind the skyrocketing prices of garlic and soybeans, the "latent" figure of hot money is hidden. In addition to the factors of sugar production, there are hot money pushers behind the rise in sugar prices. "Since August this year, the transaction prices of various sugar futures contracts have soared. For example, the main contract for the delivery of sugar, which bottomed out at 4,660 yuan/ton in May this year, is 20 1 1, which has been rising all the way and is now close to 5,800 yuan/ton. The transaction volume has also released a huge amount for more than two consecutive months, and the traces of hot money speculation are more obvious. " Sun said that in addition to hot money, many sugar companies also participated in the speculation of raw sugar futures.