Evolution of international financial crisis and judgment of global investment opportunities
125 October 2004 165438 wrote "global economic rift and worsening oil haze" for "China business news", predicting that the US strategy of seizing oil in the Middle East will interpret the oil crisis.
In July, 2005, he predicted the bull market of gold, drafted a manuscript to guide reporters, and published the article "Experts suggest China to increase its gold reserves on a large scale".
On February 30, 2005, 65438 China Business News published the article "Crisis and Opportunity in 2006: American Suspense and China Speed", predicting that the financial crisis in the United States is likely to occur in the next two years.
On July 30, 2007, he wrote in China Business News, "We will witness a turbulent financial era, and be on high guard against the RMB becoming a victim of the US dollar", which further confirmed the US financial crisis in 2008.
On June 7, 2008, China Business News wrote "Gold Futures Will Come on Stage, Beware of International Air Traps". After that, the international gold price plummeted from 1032 on March 65, 438+03, 2008 to 682 on March 65, 438+00, 2008, with a decrease of 33.9%.
20 10, 1, 20 10-20 14: Global paper money crisis and social change in China, wrote an article in China Business News, and made two important judgments: 1, global sovereign debt crisis will occur one after another; 2. In the next five years, China's economy will face severe challenges, and society may change. The former has been confirmed.
20 10 in March, China Meta-think Tank released the strategic report "Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing 2.0", predicting that the United States would launch QE2. In June of the same year, 1 1, the Federal Reserve officially launched QE2.
On August 5th, 2065438+00, China Yuan think tank released the strategic report "Food Crisis Challenging China", pointing out that international food prices are seriously underestimated and will rise sharply in the future.
On 201010 June 17, China yuan think tank released the strategy report "oil price finger 100 USD". At that time, the price of crude oil in the United States was $83 per barrel, and it rose to 1 15 in April.
On October 20 1 1 April11,China Meta-think Tank released the strategy report "Quantitative Easing 3.0 of the Federal Reserve", predicting that the Federal Reserve would launch QE3, and then in September 20 12, the Federal Reserve was forced to launch QE3.
20 1 1 On August 4th, 2008, Zhang Tingbin Sohu blog published "Strong Early Warning of Mid-term Deep Adjustment of International Gold Price", predicting that the gold price will be lowered to 1550 USD/oz, and then lowered to 1523 USD.
20 12, 10, 3 1, published in China business news "American revival and China's exploration of the outsole"; The reconstruction of the US dollar's medium-and long-term competitiveness has achieved initial results, and the US dollar is approaching the turning point of RMB's medium-and long-term appreciation.
2012165438+125 October, China dollar think tank released the strategy report "Japan struggling", which predicted that the yen would depreciate, and then the yen depreciated sharply against the US dollar.
2013,6543810.5, China business news published the article "the big bull market of 12 will enter the middle dormant period", pointing out that the gold price will face severe challenges at 20 1500, and it is a high probability to go down to 1300.
Macroeconomic cycle and stock market forecast in China;
In May, 20001year, with the article "When Procter & Gamble Era Inevitably Comes" (note, the author of this article and the following signed articles are the founders of China Yuan think tank), it is predicted that the era of multinational companies controlling China's industrial chain will come soon.
200 1, 1 1 year1October, wrote editorial for the special issue of "2 1 Century Business Herald", predicting that "the sky of longteng will suddenly open up" and China will usher in the opportunity of world factories.
In June 2002, he wrote a book and predicted that China might become rich.
June 5438+February 3, 20041,writing for China business news: the romance of the new three poles: strategic China has blossomed in an all-round way, predicting that China will usher in a prosperous period of economic and financial markets.
June 30, 2004 65438+February 30, 2004, it is predicted that China will implement the share-trading reform in 2005 (China Business News 2005 China and World Top Ten Economic Forecast).
On September 12, 2005, the reporter was instructed to write an article "Billionaires are eager to sell their houses and cash out because the bull market is about to buy Vanke", predicting that A shares will usher in a big bull market after the share-trading reform.
On June 5438+065438+1October 2 1 in 2006, he instructed reporters to write the article "Stock index futures create the greatest tactical opportunity: stock index futures rose sharply before the launch and fell sharply after the launch", pointing out that the concept of stock index futures will become an important driving force for the surge of A shares.
On May 8, 2007, he wrote "The number of accounts opened during the mid-term adjustment of A shares reversed" in China Business News, pointing out that the mid-term adjustment of A shares is just around the corner. Two weeks later, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index plunged 14.5%.
On June 65438+1 October1in 2007, he wrote "Beware of 2007 Hot Money: Brewing the New Asian Financial Crisis in 2008" in China Business News, predicting that the accelerated appreciation of RMB will lead to a big stock market bubble in 2007, which is likely to burst in 2008, resulting in a stock market crash.
On June 22nd, 2007, 10, he wrote in China Business News that the main mechanism of value realization will make the golden light more dazzling, and predicted that the gold bull market will be more exciting, and the A-share bull market will soon flourish and decline. Investors are advised to sell A shares and buy gold.
On April 7th, 2008, he wrote "Will China World Factory Go into Shock" in China Business News, warning the central bank that the continuous monetary tightening will lead to the shock crisis of China World Factory. In the third quarter of that year, there was a large-scale enterprise shutdown in the Pearl River Delta.
On April 14, 2008, I wrote in "China Business News" that the Shanghai Composite Index of dividend-paying hot money would rise first and then fall below 2000 points. Half a year later, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1664.
On June 27th, 2008, 10, he wrote "A-share reversal only releases liquidity flares" in China Business News, predicting that A-share will usher in a reversal.
In July 2009 1, he wrote "The Best Strategy Above 3000 Points: Leaving A Shares to Buy Gold" in China Business News, pointing out that A shares are approaching the peak of reversal.
On 20 1017, China meta-think tank released the strategy report "China property market bubble peaked and declined", and predicted that China property market would peak on 2010.
20 10 on September 26th, China yuan think tank released the strategy report "the endgame of a shares", pointing out that the rebound of China a shares since the end of 2008 10 has come to an end. With the prosperity and decline of China's economic growth model and the exhaustion of investors, China A-shares will enter a period of deterioration in the future.
On February 6, 20 12, he wrote "China has retreated to the brink in 20 12" in the column of "global political and economic observation" in China's meta-strategy report, pointing out that China's economy will bottom out in the next 1-2 years.
On February 9, 20 12, 12 wrote "The Market Effect of Urbanization" in the column of "Global Political and Economic Observation" of China Meta-strategy Report, pointing out that due to urbanization, A-shares will rebound moderately, the target of Shanghai Composite Index will be 2,400 points, and China's economic exploration will be postponed for one year to 20 14-65438.
20 12 On February 28th, 12, China Business News published the article "QFII authorizes stock index futures to be worse, and A-share retail investors face the last chance to leave", when the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 2362 points. Shortly after sprinting to 2444, turn around and go down.