Date of Land and Resources: 2005 165438+ 10 14 Source: China Nonferrous Metals Mineral Resources Information Network.
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Abstract: Since 2003, the price of zinc at home and abroad has risen sharply, reaching a new high in seven years. However, due to the inability of zinc mine to keep up with the change of smelting capacity, the supply of zinc concentrate is in short supply, and it is expected to be balanced in 2007. Due to the shortage of supply, the processing fee of zinc concentrate has been decreasing. At present, the spot processing fee of imported zinc concentrate in China has reached at least 20 USD/ton, and it is expected to drop to more than 10 USD just around the corner.
I. International market situation
1. The lead-zinc industry in the west is developing slowly and the smelting industry is in turmoil. In recent years, the change of zinc production capacity in western countries is similar to that in China, that is, the mine production capacity can not keep up with the change of smelting capacity. Because of the turmoil in the global zinc smelting industry, the processing fee of zinc concentrate is decreasing year by year, which makes some high-cost production capacity withdraw, and the smelting capacity in the later and waiting areas is increasing, both at home and abroad.
According to the data of the international lead-zinc mine research group and related materials, since 2004, the capacity of zinc mines in western countries may be increased by about 4 1 10,000 tons, including 220,000 tons newly built, 240,000 tons expanded, 220,000 tons closed and 200,000 tons restored. In 2005, 330,000 tons were added, and 80,000 tons have been closed, with a possible net increase of 250,000 tons.
The main new mine belongs to Hindustan Zinc Company. The three mines increased the zinc mine capacity1340,000 tons by expanding production, which was put into operation in the early second quarter of this year, but at the same time, an electrolytic zinc plant was put into operation in July, with the capacity1700,000 tons. The shutdown of production capacity in Canada is due to the exhaustion of resources. Among the new mine production capacity, there are not many large mines, most of which are the expansion of existing small and medium-sized mines. The production capacity of these new mines may not reach the output as scheduled soon. The scale of closed mines is relatively large, which has obvious influence on the market. The smelting capacity in Europe and America continued to shrink, and Asia began to develop.
There are many uncertain factors in production.
According to the data released by the international lead-zinc research group, the global consumption of refined zinc increased to 7.098 million tons from June to August 2005, compared with 6.979 million tons in the same period last year. The output of refined zinc increased to 6.874 million tons, compared with 6.705 million tons in the same period last year. In addition, the manufacturer's inventory increased to 306,000 tons in August, 297,800 tons in July and 262,000 tons at the end of 2004.
It is estimated that the global zinc concentrate output in 2005 is 4.005 million tons, an increase of 72,000 tons over the same period of last year, with an increase of only 65,438 0.8%. Compared with 2004, the benchmark processing fee in 2005 decreased by 65,438+06 USD/ton, reaching 65,438+026 USD/ton. The spot processing fee in Asia has reached a minimum of $20/ton, and the spot processing fee in Europe has also dropped to a historical low of $70/ton.
The demand for zinc is increasing.
According to the statistics of the international lead and zinc research group, the global zinc consumption increased by 56,000 tons from June to May this year compared with the same period of last year, while the western countries decreased by 4 1 10,000 tons year-on-year. The global consumption growth mainly depends on Asia, China and India, while the consumption of zinc in the west is quite weak, which is related to the galvanized sheet market in the west. For example, in the first half of the year, the output of galvanized sheet in North America decreased by 4.7% (560,000 tons) compared with the same period of last year, reaching 1 1.42 million tons; Consumption decreased by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.5438+0.296 million tons. Europe's output in the first half of the year decreased by 1.3% year-on-year to14.6 million tons; In the same period, European consumption decreased by 654.38+0.5% year-on-year to 654.38+053.5 million tons. The output of galvanized sheet in Asian countries excluding China increased by 4% year-on-year, reaching 654.38+044 million tons; During the same period, the consumption increased by 9. 1% to10.08 million tons.
4. The premium level of zinc is rising steadily.
Since the beginning of this year, the zinc ingot premium in European and Asian markets has maintained a steady and rising pattern. The European market has the strongest premium, above 95 USD/ton, mainly due to the closure of smelters in this region. In Asia, the premium is maintained at USD 65,438+000/ton due to the decrease of China's exports and the increase of demand. The high premium shows that supply and demand in most parts of the world are still relatively tight. On June 5438+ 10, the spot premium of zinc in the Japanese market was USD 130- 140/ ton (subject to the spot price of LME).
Some traders said: China suppliers and traders are not active in zinc export, because the domestic price is 200 USD/ton higher than the LME spot price. At present, the premium of zinc imported from China is above 100 USD/ton, and some of it has exceeded 150 USD/ton. Judging from the import quantity of zinc, it has become an upward trend. Due to the relationship between supply and demand, the profit margin that has been formed, and the potential rising factors of domestic zinc price, it is estimated that the number of imported zinc ingots will exceed 70,000 tons in the third quarter, and the future premium level will not be less than 65,438+030 USD.
5, inventory reduction
Since 5438+00 in June last year, LME reported a continuous decline in stocks, which provided strong support for zinc prices. From June to July, 2005, the average spot price of LME was 65,438+0,280 USD/ton, up 23% over the same period of last year. In the same period, the average price of three futures varieties of zinc was $65,438+0,293/ton, up 22.4% year-on-year. This year, the spot LME topped $65,438 +0.500/ ton, and the three-month price topped $65,438 +0.503/ ton. In the first five months, LME reported that the inventory decreased at a rate of about 20,000 tons per month, and by the end of May, it decreased by 6,543.8+004,600 tons. At present, the inventory is around 506,900 tons.
Second, the domestic market situation
1, the domestic price reached a record high.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market price has been relatively firm. In the fourth quarter of 2004, the domestic price of 1 # zinc ingots once fell below 1 1000 yuan/ton, but it has been higher than 12000 yuan/ton this year, mostly at 12500- 13000 yuan.
2. Strong demand growth.
Increased demand, cost pull and tight supply are still the main factors leading to strong domestic prices this year. In 2005, the zinc plating industry was still the main area of zinc demand growth, mainly reflected in the following aspects: the demand for hot-dip galvanized sheet and color-coated sheet in household appliances, construction industry, automobile and other industries was the same as last year; In 2005, the installed capacity will increase by 70 million kilowatts, and the demand for galvanized steel in the power industry is undoubtedly very strong; The demand in the transportation industry has greatly increased. By 2020, China will form a national highway network of 85,000 kilometers. Macro-control has little effect on the overall demand for zinc. Although the iron and steel industry is affected by the macro-control price drop and the slow growth of output, the output of galvanized sheet has increased rapidly. It is estimated that the annual output of galvanized sheet is close to100000 tons, about 3 million tons more than that in 2004, and the consumption of zinc is close to150000 tons. With the development of automobile and construction industry, the domestic production of coatings and rubber has increased rapidly year by year, and the demand for zinc oxide has maintained steady growth. Copper and copper alloys are currently the second largest zinc user industry in China. In the first half of this year, China's copper output increased by 6.9% year-on-year, reaching 2.6 million tons. In all fields of zinc consumption, only the growth of battery consumption slowed down, mainly because of the adjustment of battery structure, and the growth of zinc consumption in other fields remained good. It is estimated that zinc consumption in China increased by 7.8% in 2005 compared with 2004.
3. Spot concentrate price accounts for about 70% of zinc ingot price.
Domestic zinc ingot prices rose, which improved mining investment to some extent. In the first half of the year, a total of 105 lead-zinc investment projects were started nationwide, an increase of 48 over the same period of last year. From June to July this year, the national zinc concentrate output increased by 3.27% year-on-year to 96 1.8 million tons. But it still can't keep up with the growth of smelting capacity, and the price of concentrate has been soaring. Even if the price of zinc ingot falls, the price of concentrate still rises. At present, the 50% grade zinc ore in the domestic market has exceeded 9500 yuan/ton, and it is estimated that it will be 10000 yuan/ton in winter. According to this estimation, its cost accounts for about 70% of zinc price.
4. The output of metallic zinc increased moderately, and the net import increased.
According to statistics, domestic zinc production increased by 4.73% from June to July this year, reaching 654.38+0.5037 million tons. In the second half of this year, more new production capacity was invested, and it was raw materials rather than production capacity that decided the output. It is estimated that the zinc output in China will reach about 2.68 million tons in 2005, which is about 654.38+600 million tons more than that in 2004, which means the average monthly output in the second half of this year.
In the first half of the year, the net import of zinc concentrate in China was 293,228 tons, down 2.7% year-on-year. The net import of zinc alloy is 9 1902 tons, up 4% year-on-year; The net import of zinc was 265,438+0,790 tons, down 35% compared with the same period of last year; The net import of scrap zinc was 32,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. The net import of zinc ingots is more than 50,000 tons, nearly 40,000 tons more than last year.
Third, the future market forecast
The supply of zinc ore has been in short supply for three years. It is estimated that the mine production capacity will not increase significantly until the end of 2006. In 2007, the supply and demand of global concentrate market will be basically balanced. Until then, the processing fee will continue to fall, which will limit the production of smelters. It is predicted that before 2007, the supply in the western market will continue to be in short supply.
In short, the fundamentals of the global zinc market are still improving, and tight and stable supply will be the main feature this year and next. However, the overall macro situation is not conducive to its rapid rise. It is estimated that the rest of this year will fluctuate between $65,438+0,250-65,438+0,550/ton, with more opportunities to rise than to fall. Domestic zinc price is expected to remain firm.
It is estimated that the annual average spot price of LME will be USD 65,438+0,300/ton in 2005, USD 65,438+0,320/ton in the third quarter and USD 65,438+0,365,438+0.8/ton in the fourth quarter. (Excerpted from China Nonferrous Metals Newspaper)