Reserve data released by the central bank show

A substantial increase in holdings began in November 2022, and by January this year it increased by approximately 4%, which was the first increase after the epidemic. hold.

Judging from these data, the impact of interest rate hikes in the United States has led to tight liquidity, and the market has sold gold reserves to obtain liquidity. However, liquidity in China has remained abundant, and there is even a need to Buy gold to raise the exchange rate price of the yuan.

However, judging from the trend of the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, since the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates in January, the Central Bank of China stopped buying gold, but the data has not been updated and cannot be confirmed.

In February, even if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, because the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar did not fall further, the People’s Bank of China did not purchase gold. This will have to wait until the March data update to confirm this.

Since the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, the price of the April gold futures contract on the New York Stock Exchange has experienced a short squeeze, and short orders have been closed quickly to avoid defaults on due delivery. As time goes by, the New York Stock Exchange The price may exceed the price on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

We can think that financial institutions in the United States are threatened by the bank bankruptcy crisis, and they are afraid to easily spit out their assets. Therefore, the gold price will still see a short squeeze in the short term, but this situation is possible As runs occur, institutions will continue to be forced to sell gold reserves to obtain liquidity. Therefore, there may be significant selling pressure in the medium and long term, and prices may fall.

As for China, there is no data to support the phenomenon of gold hoarding. On the contrary, it cannot be ruled out that some institutions may take advantage of the short squeeze in the U.S. market and sell their reserves to cash out, and then wait until the U.S. financial crisis breaks out further. After the bank collapse, there will be a wave of low prices, so the price may still rise in the next few days. However, when the price of the New York Stock Exchange exceeds that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, you must pay attention to the risk of shorting, and it is best not to rush to add positions.

In the past, the price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was driven by the abundant liquidity of the RMB. However, the U.S. debt crisis will inevitably break out soon, the Federal Reserve will inevitably expand its balance sheet significantly, and the price of the U.S. dollar will fall sharply, which will in turn lead to the decline of the RMB. Rapid appreciation.

In order to prevent excessive appreciation from harming the real economy, the Central Bank of China will inevitably spit out part of its gold reserves to absorb liquidity. Therefore, this increase in holdings by the central bank should not be maintained for a long time, and then the overall market will be affected. The logic will be that there will be a reversal of buying and selling, and there should be an inflated rise in prices on the New York Stock Exchange and a flat or slightly downward price on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.