resident
The leverage of residents here is mainly mortgage to buy a house and consumer loans. Familiar with mortgage, the down payment is 300,000 yuan, and the house is 6,543.8+0,000 yuan, of which 700,000 yuan of provident fund loans/commercial loans are leveraged funds; Another example is consumer loans, which use your credit points to borrow money from the platform for consumption. In fact, the above two methods are all based on our credit, provident fund or physical mortgage loans.
De-leveraging does not mean that we will not be allowed to buy a house or mortgage loans, but that the proportion of leverage will be reduced. Originally, a down payment of 300,000 yuan could "incite" a loan of 700,000 yuan, but now it won't work. Increase the down payment ratio and limit the purchase to 400,000 or 500,000. The original credit score was more than 600 points, but now it is 700 points, which will reduce the number of people who can borrow money and the bad debt rate.
industrial enterprise
During the period of economic prosperity, the government will implement proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy. For enterprises, this means that the currency liquidity is more relaxed, it is easier to borrow more money, and the project is easier to get approval from relevant departments. At this time, it is also a period of leveraged expansion of enterprises. Company assets/valuation is 65.438 billion yuan. Originally, only 70 million yuan could be loaned, but now 200 million yuan can be loaned, and the financial leverage is doubled.
De-leveraging is in the context of downward pressure on economic growth. If credit easing and projects are allowed to be launched one after another, it will not only make enterprises insolvent, but also cause bad debts to banks. Once the enterprise goes bankrupt, the bank's money is finished. The bank's money comes from the deposits of ordinary people, corporate deposits, financial management funds and so on. Therefore, this will trigger a chain reaction, which may eventually lead to a systemic financial crisis. Therefore, at this time, the state's deleveraging of central enterprises will also stifle the financial crisis in the cradle, ensure the safety of state-owned assets and maintain the stability of the financial market.
government
The current deleveraging is mainly aimed at the debt deleveraging of local governments. At present, the financing channels of local governments are mainly general debts and special debts of local governments.
General debt is like the national debt of the central government, while special debt is the bonds faced by land reserve, shed reform, toll roads, PPP and other projects. The ultimate purpose of these bonds is financing. Take shed as an example. The local government's finance will definitely be overwhelmed by these hundreds of millions of demolition funds. At this time, it is necessary to issue bonds for financing, and the money obtained will be invested in the shed reform project.
Now the local government wants to deleverage, that is, to reduce the proportion of monetized resettlement for shed reform. According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the monetized resettlement rate of shed reform in China increased from 7.9% and 9% in 20 14 to 29.9% and 48.5% in 20 15 and 20 16, and reached 60% in 20 17. Once the proportion of monetized resettlement declines, the demand and enthusiasm for buying houses will naturally drop sharply, and the bottom supporting the third-and fourth-tier housing prices will be gone, and eventually the housing prices will return to rationality.
financial institution
The leverage of financial institutions is mainly in investment, and the operations are basically off-balance sheet expansion, maturity mismatch, product nesting and credit relaxation. The expansion table is similar to the mortgage mentioned above. Wealth management products have a little money of their own, and the rest are borrowed, and then leveraged, channels and so on. They are all added to bypass the supervision and distribution of products; Maturity mismatch means investing short-term funds in long-term projects, just like you use 1 year to deposit five-year regular interest, and use short-term funds to obtain long-term income from a lot of wealth management products. For example, banks often issue rolling wealth management for several months to invest in N projects a long time ago, which is a typical leverage; Product nesting is largely based on term mismatch. The 3-month financial investment 1 year project is now due. What should I do? I will issue financial management to an institution to raise funds. Organization A repackages and raises funds from Organization B ...; Relaxing credit means relaxing the review of lenders, just like buying blue chips in the market before. Now as long as it can make money, ST can also consider it.
De-leverage is to seize these situations: limit the scope of financial institutions' wealth management investment and tighten market liquidity; Combating the mismatch of funds for wealth management products; Combating the nesting of wealth management products; Shrink credit.
Give me a fulcrum, and I can pry up the earth. Archimedes' requirements are too low, as long as there is a fulcrum, and the most important thing to shake the earth is actually that pole. What if the pole is broken? We also have a classic proverb: "pry up the earth and hit it on your own feet." That should hurt.
Economic leverage is borrowing. Everything needs mortgage, and we often stare at physical mortgage. In fact, the funds themselves can be mortgaged. This forms a lever. If a person has 65,438+00 yuan, he uses this 65,438+00 yuan as collateral and borrows 65,438+00 yuan, which is twice the leverage. We say he used 10 yuan to leverage 20 yuan. At this time, if the lender has the ability to add value to 20 yuan and turn it into 30 yuan, this leverage will be removed a lot. At that time, 30 yuan Li 10 yuan was in debt. Therefore, there are two ways to deleverage. One is to pay back the money, and 10 yuan's debt will be dropped. The other is to raise the price, cash out when it rises, and then that part of the funds can be repaid. These two points are reflected. We found that the property market is actually deleveraging with the price increase, combined with destocking, so the homeowner is very happy.
Leverage exists not only in lending, but also in money, such as deposit reserve. The bank lent Party A 100 yuan, but the money was actually still in the bank's hand, and Party A did not take it out and put it in his pocket. So the bank deducted the deposit reserve, for example, after 10%, 90 yuan continued to lend it to Party B. You see, the bank only paid back 100 yuan, and he borrowed 190 yuan. This is the lever. In theory, this kind of lending will be infinitely magnified. Therefore, reducing the reserve is also called "spicy powder" in financial means. Because it's strong.
Leverage is also reflected in currency issuance. For example, the Federal Reserve is now shrinking its watches, which is actually recycling dollars. The central bank has no net assets (in theory). Let's assume that the central bank has net assets of 1 yuan, and it has issued 1 10,000 yuan, so the assets are 1 10,000 times and the liabilities are 1 10,000 times. Of course you can't say that. We are just explaining that actually increasing money also means increasing leverage, and deleveraging also means recycling money.
To sum up, using small money to incite big money is to add leverage. If you add more, you will sell assets and repay loans, that is, deleverage.
Leverage can be seen everywhere in our daily life. The fishing rod for fishing, the fan for enjoying the cool in summer and the crowbar for work all use the lever principle. The great physicist Archimedes once said, "Give me a fulcrum and I can pry up the earth", which vividly explained the principle of leverage.
Leverage is a tool that can make a big difference in small things. Nowadays, leverage is widely used in the economy. In economics, leverage is a tool to amplify investment results in a specific proportion. It has been widely used in property market, stock market, foreign exchange market, futures, corporate financing and other activities. Leverage is a small investment, and the leverage ratio of each market is different. The greater the leverage ratio, the less principal is needed. The greater the profit-loss multiple, the smaller the opposite.
During the stock market crash of 15, there was a real case of leverage risk. Before the stock market crash, a stockholder had 800,000 principal in his hand, but after he used the financing disk for four times, he had 4 million funds in his hand, and Man Cang bought a stock. If it rises by 20% in two days, he will get a profit of 4 million, 20% = 800,000, that is to say, his principal will double after two daily limit; Sadly, however, he hit the fuse and fell twice in two days. As a result, he lost 800,000 principal in two days, exploded his position, and finally committed suicide by jumping off a building, which was also news at that time.
In addition to amplifying profit and loss, leverage also plays an active role in the market. For example, in the precious metals market and foreign exchange market, if leverage is not used, the fluctuation is very small at ordinary times, and the smallest transaction will cost hundreds of thousands or even hundreds of thousands. If you use 50 times leverage, you can use one-fiftieth of the original actual amount to pry the transaction, which reduces the entry threshold, enlarges the proportion of income and makes the market more attractive.
Economic leverage is neither good nor bad. After using leverage in the property market, you can live in a house with a principal of 300,000,654.38+0,000 yuan. So, in theory, lever can move the earth; But in real life, it is more to incite the joys and sorrows of the family. I forgot to see such a sentence there to describe leverage. Levers are like women. The more beautiful, the more dangerous. Therefore, when using leverage, while seeing its beautiful side, we can't ignore its risks and carefully choose the lever that suits us.
Generally speaking, leverage in economics is to buy things you can't afford, which mainly happens in the investment field.
Maybe someone will ask, how to buy something you can't afford?
Whether to borrow money from friends or banks.
Some people may ask, if you can't afford it, you have to borrow money, so why buy it?
Because there is a premise that what you buy will appreciate, and the appreciation will reach a certain proportion.
For example:
The price of a pair of famous calligraphy and painting is 6.5438+0 million yuan, the market price will reach 6.5438+0.2 million yuan next year, and the bank loan interest rate is 654.38+00%. And you only have 500 thousand. At this time, you should consider buying or not. The return on investment in calligraphy and painting is (10.2 million yuan-1 10,000 yuan)/1 10,000 yuan =20%, which is much higher than the bank loan interest rate. At this time, I borrowed 500,000 yuan from the bank to buy calligraphy and painting, and sold it for 6.5438+0.2 million yuan the next year. I paid back the principal and interest of the bank loan of 550,000 yuan, deducted 500,000 yuan from my own funds, and made a net profit of 6,543,800 yuan+5,000 yuan.
Of course, famous calligraphy and painting is just an example. Usually, investment is risky. Some people earn a lot of money by adding leverage, while others lose everything by adding leverage. Whether it is worth adding leverage depends on your own strength, the price trend of investment products and other factors.
I just wrote an article about leverage. From the definition of economics, the essence of financial leverage is that money multipliers incite economic activities, which is manifested in the form of debt. For example, stock market leverage means that individual investors borrow a certain proportion of funds from financial institutions through credit pledge. Although there is no clear debt, the risks here are actually reflected in the name of debt. Once something is lost, it is actually a real debt. Leverage gains excess returns by expanding assets and liabilities, which is leverage.
Pay attention to economic interpretation and small European stock fans
The lever principle comes from Archimedes' theory of poking the earth with a stick, that is, you can move a heavy thing with little force. In economics, it actually means borrowing money to make money. If you have completed a profitable business, it will not be established without the start-up capital as the fulcrum. There are many examples in life to prove this. If you want to buy a house, but the house needs millions, you can't afford it at all, but you can repay it in installments. Borrowing money from the bank realized the dream of owning a house. If the house price doubles in the ten years after buying a house, then you sell the house and pay back the bank's money, and there is still a big surplus. This is the principle that you used economic leverage to amass a fortune. The deep principle of its significance is to use the bank, hand over the risks to the bank and keep the profits for yourself.
When many people understand this truth and use this economic principle, the risk of banks will increase, which is not conducive to social stability. This is actually the meaning of various p2p storms, using other people's money to make money for themselves. This is the lever. When the leverage is infinite, the risk naturally points to the bank. If the real estate price plummets, its financial risk is immeasurable. Like the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, it also affected other countries.
The recent listing of ants has run aground, and its core reason is inseparable from financial leverage. If everyone is using flowers and borrowing them in advance, where will the money come from? In fact, the more they borrow, the more they earn. They use the total amount of the owner's IOUs to finance loans, and then lend them out. Using the principle of leverage economy, they indirectly turn the money that should have been deposited in the bank into 100 times or even more. This is not conducive to national financial stability, so it is inevitable to be interviewed, otherwise the CBRC will be useless.
The property market needs deleveraging to prevent a large number of real estate speculators from using leverage to speculate higher and higher, which is not good for ordinary demand. Financial deleveraging can prevent problems before they happen. Too much leverage is difficult to recover, and the bubble is too big. It will be shattered one day.
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As for leverage, whether it is the property market or the economy, simply put, 6,543.8+million has become 6,543.8+million, and 6,543.8+million has become 6,543.8+million. What is a lever? 10 times, and there are many levers in economics, including prices, taxes, loans and so on.
Let me briefly explain economic leverage in the most popular language I personally understand. I'll give you an example, and you'll do the opposite.
Take loans as an example.
An enterprise itself has a market value of 30 million, but the available funds are only 3 million. At this time, they have a good research project in their hands. Unfortunately, there is no money to carry it out. At this time, both the government and banks saw the possibility of their projects.
In order to promote the sustainable scientific research ability of the enterprise, we lent the enterprise 30 million yuan, so the enterprise came to life at once and succeeded in the future. This is the lever.
Many enterprises, whether economically or even personally, are gradually relying on this method to achieve success. But their own leverage is too heavy. If this continues, it will explode one day. Therefore, it is necessary to de-leverage and let enterprises use their own money for sustainable operation.
Just like buying a house and not letting you mortgage it, it is also deleveraging. Having said that, it may be easy to understand.
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The core of business is leverage. Of course, this word is economic, and it can also be understood as borrowing, weighting and universal. For example, when paul getty, the world's first millionaire, won the first oil well, he invited local officials to show their faces, scaring everyone to rob him!
In ancient times, there were two ways to make money. One way is to hoard goods and sell them in your hands. Another trick is to monopolize the supply, channels or markets. Adding leverage means buying expectations, and the vegetables and fruits of this property can only be sold to me with a down payment. In those years, Alibaba investors were optimistic about future earnings and dared to spend a lot of money. Now they are rich!
Twenty years ago, there was a "Zhangjiagang Spirit", which took the lead in building a bonded zone and a modern port with high debts in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, which made Shagang rise and incited Zhangjiagang people to enjoy a rich life five to 10 years ahead of schedule.
Although the lever can be four or two thousand kilograms, we should also talk about the timing, direction and strength. There was an old hand in the stock market. When he first started financing, he made millions, and then he lost 10 million. Leverage brought him down.
Archimedes lever principle: Give me a fulcrum and I can move the whole earth. In other words, as long as the lever is long enough, the farther away from the fulcrum, the more labor-saving it is. With a little force, you can pry up an object many times heavier than yourself.
Economically speaking, with less assets, you can get several times of assets and make this kind of assets generate income. Leverage can be used in many places, such as futures trading. With a small amount of principal, you can trade and multiply the income several times. The most obvious is in real estate. For example, a house 1 10,000 yuan, you have 1 10,000 yuan in cash, and you can only trade a house. If it rises to 120, it can be sold and earn 200,000 yuan. However, if you use leverage and use 200,000 yuan to go to the bank for a down payment, you can buy 5 sets. When it rises to 654.38+0.2 million, it can be sold together, and the same cost is 654.38+0 million, which can earn 4 times more than buying a set in full. This is the lever principle in economics.
Many people don't know what leverage is. Here is a very straightforward and popular saying: debt is leverage.
The so-called leverage is to be small and wide. As can be seen from the above figure, the lever can be infinitely enlarged.
Archimedes once said, "Give me a fulcrum, and I will tilt the whole earth", which shows the role of leverage.
As individuals,
For example, I only have 10000 on me, and I borrowed 90,000, 1000 to invest in an enterprise, so I just added10 times the leverage;
For enterprises, my net assets are only 1 100 million, but my total assets are 200 million, so my leverage is twice;
For financial investment, if I want to buy and sell futures, I only pay 5% margin, so the leverage is 10 times.
For economics, leverage means that the scale of credit is too large and the whole economy has too much debt.
Because leverage is a double-edged sword. Good use can accelerate development, and poor use will lead to collapse.
The simplest metaphor is: if you have 1 1,000 yuan to invest in futures, you may earn 5,000 yuan on 1 day, with a yield of 50%, but you may also lose 5,000 yuan a day. This is the role of leverage.
Therefore, it is easy to understand why the state should limit leverage, mainly to control risks and prevent systemic risks.