"For this wave of large fluctuations in pig prices, everyone knows better.
According to industry analysts, the rapid rise in pig prices is not a factor in the pig cycle, but some pig enterprises are reluctant to sell, and retail farmers have also "added a fire". The higher the price, the less it is sold, which has pushed up the price of pigs one after another.
After all, at present, there is no substantial benefit to support the rise of pig prices. For example, the number of live pigs and fertile sows is maintained within a reasonable range and relatively abundant; In addition, large, middle and primary schools have holidays one after another, and a large number of centralized purchasing and consumption forces have withdrawn; There is no major disease epidemic at the breeding end. In the final analysis, what can support the crazy rise of pig prices?
For the staff of a pig enterprise who said on the Internet that the standard pig (220kg) should be used for slaughter, if the pig is kept under pressure after growing to the standard pig, the pig will not grow meat or only grow a little meat, which is not cost-effective for the company. At this time, the cost-benefit ratio is the highest for the company.
I agree with this small series, but I can't agree with you here about whether the standard pig really goes out at present. After a while, the big fat pig will give the answer. Maybe he forgot that the company is not pursuing cost performance, but higher profits.
On the other hand, the group's bid has hit record highs, which is beyond the reach of small and medium-sized farmers. On the other hand, the group's pig enterprises have stronger and stronger voice, most obviously "slaughtering enterprises", which can be described as "tearful price increase" during this period. You are very good!
With the price of live pigs hitting record highs, the price of pork is not far behind.
According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of July 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 25.74 yuan/kg, which was about 410/.2% higher than that in April this year.
In this regard, the relevant departments actively take countermeasures. Many institutions predict that due to the upward trend of the pig cycle and the recovery of service consumption after the epidemic, the CPI in June may further rise to about 2.3% year-on-year, and will run above 2% for three consecutive months.
Judging from the regulatory trend, the National Development and Reform Commission is "three shots in two days" to stabilize pig prices.
On the 4th, a special meeting was held to ensure the supply and price stability of the live pig market, severely warning major pig enterprises not to hoard and drive up prices, and not to collude in price increases. On the morning of the 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that, in view of the irrational behaviors such as blind price reduction and reluctance to sell in the live pig market recently, the Price Department of NDRC is studying to start the central pork reserve and guiding local governments to jointly start the reserve in due course.
Subsequently, on the afternoon of the 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and Dalian Commodity Exchange held a forum with relevant parties to further improve the working mechanism, form joint efforts, strengthen joint supervision of the spot futures market, investigate and deal with abnormal transactions in a timely manner, and strengthen penetrating supervision, and severely crack down on illegal activities such as fabricating and spreading price increase information, hoarding, driving up prices, and malicious speculation of funds, so as to effectively ensure the smooth operation of the live pig market.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose in 25, and fell in 0, and the falling areas accounted for 96% of all the monitored areas. The lowest average price of live pigs monitored nationwide is 1 1.30 yuan/kg, and the highest is 1 1.90 yuan/kg.
Although it is an indisputable fact that the scale trend will continue to expand, the era of "profiteering" in raising pigs has ended, and it is also a recognized fact that there is room for making reasonable profits in the future. It is true that the fluctuation of the future "pig cycle" will be more stable.
With the continuous expansion of large-scale pig raising, the cycle of pigs will become longer and longer. When 70% ~ 80% of domestic pigs are provided by large pig enterprises, the pig price tends to be stable and there will be no big ups and downs. The pig cycle is almost gone, but there is a prerequisite that the state should supervise it later.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will fall on a large scale tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market and grasp the market dynamics.