Will the price of crude oil drop to $40 a barrel? Of course there is.
Why did the international crude oil price fall? Will it fall to $25 next year? In the global economic recession, demand is expected to decline. Suppression of crude oil futures prices by international financial markets.
I don't know where I fell.
In May this year, Goldman Sachs predicted that the price of crude oil would rise to $200. At the beginning of the year, Jierun Singapore, a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs, signed contracts with domestic 10 companies to bet on the price of crude oil, and Jierun bet that the price of crude oil fell below $60. Several China companies have suffered heavy losses, and Shennan Power has entered bankruptcy alert.
Now it is Merrill Lynch that predicts that the oil price will reach $25 next year. This may be another huge trap.
In the final analysis, both Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch serve their own interests. For the benefit, they do not hesitate to spread rumors and confuse people. Those who are superstitious about these American imperialists must have died miserably.
Crude oil can be long on dips within 30.
Why can the dollar affect the price of crude oil? At present, almost all international crude oil transactions are settled in US dollars. Although some countries such as Iran have tried to calculate prices in euros, they have undoubtedly encountered difficulties. Because, since the 1970s, the United States has reached an "unshakable agreement" with Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer at that time, and the two sides decided to use the US dollar as the only pricing currency, which was agreed by other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Since then, the US dollar has been closely linked with oil, and countless contacts have been established.
Generally speaking, the dollar and crude oil are negatively correlated for a long time.
For a long time, the transaction price of oil has been mainly denominated in dollars, and the depreciation of the dollar shows that the real value of the dollar is declining. Therefore, if you want to buy the same amount of oil, you need to pay more dollars. On the surface, it directly leads to an increase in oil prices. If it doesn't rise, it means that the actual price of oil denominated in dollars has dropped.
Why did the dollar raise interest rates and crude oil prices fall? Let's take a look at the definition of the US dollar index first: the US dollar index is an indicator that comprehensively reflects the exchange rate of the US dollar in the international foreign exchange market, and is used to measure the degree of exchange rate changes of the US dollar against a basket of currencies. It measures the strength of the US dollar by calculating the comprehensive rate of change between the US dollar and a selected basket of currencies, thus indirectly reflecting the changes in US export competitiveness and import costs. Obviously, the dollar index is a relative indicator. Its function is not so much to measure the value of the dollar as to measure whether the credit of the dollar is stronger or weaker than that of a basket of currencies.
There are many factors that affect the rise and fall of gold, and the dollar is only one of them. Under normal circumstances, we can judge the trend of gold according to the rise and fall of the dollar. Judging from the historical trend chart of the past eight years, the trend of gold and dollar index is almost like a reflection in the water. However, in the case of multiple factors at the same time, this overall situation will be broken, and the dollar and gold will rise and fall together! Since 2009, the price of gold has fluctuated with the US dollar for many times. Dollars and gold are safe-haven assets! In the general downturn of the world economy, the risk aversion of the market will dominate! Then there will be a phenomenon that the safe-haven currencies, the dollar and gold, will rise together! On the contrary, if the market risk appetite increases, the same decline will occur.
In addition, in terms of crude oil, the rise in crude oil prices is good for gold prices. Because rising crude oil prices will bring inflationary pressure, and gold, as a traditional investment tool to prevent inflation, is favored by many funds. In June 2005, the dollar strengthened, non-American currencies fell, and gold did not fall, but went out of an independent rising market. The reason is that the price of crude oil continued to rise in June, which became the focus of market attention, ignoring the pressure of the strong dollar on gold.
Why is the price of crude oil rising and the dollar depreciating? As a world currency with a monopoly position, the continuous decline of the US dollar has directly promoted the rise of energy products such as oil. Hedge funds and financial oligarchs holding US dollars bought a lot of oil futures on the basis of the expectation of falling US dollars in order to maintain the profitability of their US dollar currencies, which also triggered the speculative psychology and rising expectations of global oil. Rising prices triggered a global energy panic, which led to the crazy and irrational rise of crude oil and other products, becoming increasingly disappointed with the US dollar and turning to excessive trust in crude oil. This is a vicious circle, so the price of crude oil has gone up.
Why do you say that when the dollar rises, the price of crude oil will fall, because it is priced in dollars?
But crude oil is no better than gold.
Crude oil is mainly affected by the supply and demand environment.
How to analyze the trend of crude oil price needs to be analyzed from the technical and news aspects.
Technically, we can mainly look at the spot crude oil price chart from the following two aspects:
First, through bottom interval analysis
When the price of crude oil has not broken through the bottom or top of the previous period, crude oil investors must not draw the conclusion that the general trend or the small trend has changed prematurely. When the market is bullish, the price of crude oil futures will rebound quickly, and the decline will not be great, forming a double bottom or multiple bottoms above the bottom. But once the price of crude oil falls below the original bottom, it means that the price of crude oil will fall to a lower point before some important rebound occurs.
Second, through the top interval analysis
When there are double tops or multiple tops again, but the price has not risen above the original top, even a bull market should not enter prematurely. Once the price rises above the original top, before it falls back, the price will often show obvious signs of rising, and it will be better if it enters the long state. Price changes often occur in the final stage of a bull market or a bear market, and investors should trade after a clear bullish or bearish signal appears.
News can focus on major news, such as US non-farm payrolls data, minutes of Fed meetings, EIA crude oil inventory data, etc. You can learn to look at the K-line chart, learn technical indicators such as MADC, KDJ, and Bollinger Band, and analyze market trends in combination with data.
Finally, a word of caution: investment is not blocking, don't worry!
The relationship between the price of crude oil and the dollar First of all, the dollar is the most powerful currency in international circulation, and crude oil is also a commodity in international circulation. International commodities are priced in dollars. Therefore, after the dollar depreciates, commodities priced in dollars will appreciate (relatively), such as gold. In most cases, when this is the case, we should also consider the influence of supply and demand and international political situation on the prices of crude oil and gold.
The relationship between crude oil and the dollar is different from that between gold and the dollar. The price of gold is influenced by the exchange rate of the US dollar. Crude oil price and dollar price are interactive. When the price of crude oil rises, the world economy will be affected, including the United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer. Inflationary pressure brought by rising crude oil prices will bring depreciation pressure to the dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the dollar is that the price of crude oil denominated in dollars will also increase. Of course, on the other hand, falling oil prices are a good signal for the economy. People's confidence in the American economy will push up the exchange rate of the US dollar, which will lead to a further downward adjustment of oil prices.