Open position, also known as short position or open position, refers to the quantity of a commodity futures contract that has not been hedged and delivered in kind after buying or selling. The buyers and sellers of open contracts are equal, and domestic positions are calculated according to the total number of buyers and sellers. If both the buyer and the seller are new positions, two contracts will be added; If one party opens the position and the other party closes the position, the position remains unchanged; If the buyers and sellers close their positions, the positions will be reduced by 2 contracts. When the next opening quantity is equal to the closing quantity, the positions held will remain unchanged.
Since the open contract refers to the number of contracts that have not been hedged and settled during the period from the beginning of the transaction to the end of the open contract, the more open contracts, the greater the sum of closed contracts and physical delivery before the contract expires, and the greater the transaction volume. Therefore, the analysis of the change of positions can infer the flow of funds in the futures market. The increase in positions indicates that funds flow into the futures market; On the contrary, it means that funds are flowing out of the futures market.
Changes in trading volume and positions will affect futures prices, and changes in futures prices will also cause changes in trading volume and positions. Therefore, analyzing the changes of the three is conducive to correctly predicting the trend of futures prices. Generally speaking, there are the following rules:
(1) As the price rises, the volume and positions increase, and the price has the power to continue to rise;
(2) The price increases, and the trading volume and positions decrease, indicating that the kinetic energy of price increases is weakened;
(3) As the price rises, the trading volume increases, but the positions decrease, indicating that the kinetic energy of the price rise is weakening;
(4) When the price falls, the volume and positions increase, and the price still has the power to continue to fall. However, if the selling is excessive, the futures price will rebound strongly.
(5) The decline in prices, the decrease in trading volume and positions indicate that the kinetic energy of price decline has been exhausted;
(6) The price drops, the volume increases but the position decreases, indicating that the possibility of further price drop is decreasing.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that under normal circumstances, if the increase of trading volume and positions is consistent with the direction of price change, the price trend can continue to be maintained for some time; If it is contrary to the price change, the price trend may turn. Of course, this needs to be further analyzed in combination with different price patterns.
Position difference: short for position difference, it refers to the difference between the current position and the position corresponding to yesterday's closing price. If it is positive, add positions today; If it is negative, the position will be reduced. Position difference is the change of position. For example, the position of stock index futures contract in June 165438+ 10 is 60,000 lots, whereas it was 50,000 lots yesterday, so the position difference today is 1 10,000 lots. In addition: there are also changes in position differences in the transaction column. Here refers to the comparison between the position change caused by the current transaction order and the previous instant position, whether to increase or decrease the position.