On the evening of February 5, 65438, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four departments announced the "Reform Plan of refined oil taxes and fees (draft for comments)" to solicit opinions from the society. At this point, the fuel tax finally appeared after 14 years. The date of this consultation is 65438+February 12, and there are only seven natural days from the date of publication to the deadline for consultation. After soliciting opinions,
For the determination of fuel tax, the content in the draft for comment is: unit tax arrangement of refined oil consumption tax. The unit tax of gasoline consumption tax will be increased from 0.2 yuan to 1 yuan per liter, and that of diesel will be increased from 0. 1 yuan per liter to 0.8 yuan, and the unit tax of other refined oil products will be increased accordingly. Consumption tax on refined oil such as gasoline and diesel oil is levied within the price. After increasing the unit tax, the current price level of gasoline and diesel will not increase.
After the publication of the "Draft for Comment", all parties have agreed and criticized this plan, and the influence of all parties has been mentioned. However, I am particularly concerned about one thing, that is, since the plan is confirmed, it also recognizes that oil prices can reduce the amount of tax increase at the current oil price, that is to say, gasoline can reduce 0.8 yuan and diesel can reduce 0.7 yuan. In that case, why not reduce the price immediately and then implement the new fuel tax policy on June 65438+1 October1? And let the oil giants continue to "naturally" earn this excess profit.
Recently, the international crude oil price has fallen sharply, from the highest point in July 147 to the lowest point of 40 dollars a few days ago. However, domestic refined oil prices have not fallen since June 20, and the voice of "lowering refined oil prices" has become increasingly strong.
So what is the price truth of the domestic refined oil market at present?
According to Han Xiaoping, executive vice chairman and information director of China Energy Network, according to the standard that the international crude oil futures price fell to 53 dollars/barrel in June this year, 438+065438+ 10, the domestic theoretical oil price of refined oil should be 2.93 yuan/liter. The theoretical oil price is 2.93 yuan/liter, which is basically the same as that in May 2004. In fact, the domestic retail price is 3.46 yuan/liter, which means that if the oil price drops to 3.46 yuan/liter now, PetroChina and Sinopec can at least maintain their profitability in May 2004. In fact, in June 2008, the average domestic oil price in China was 6.25 yuan/liter, 2.79 yuan higher than the price of 3.46 yuan/liter. Han Xiaoping said that 2.79 yuan is the "excess profit" of PetroChina and Sinopec. It is worth noting that 2.79 yuan does not include their normal profits and financial subsidies. Based on the conservative national oil consumption of 65.438+million tons per month, this means that 26.87 billion yuan falls into the "pocket" of enterprises every month.
Looking back at the "Reform Plan of refined oil taxes and fees (Draft for Comment)" published by the National Development and Reform Commission and other four departments, it is mentioned in the draft that the unit tax of gasoline consumption tax will be increased from 0.2 yuan to 1 yuan per liter, and that of diesel oil will be increased from 0. 1 yuan per liter to 0.8 yuan, and the unit tax of other refined oil products will be increased accordingly. Consumption tax on refined oil such as gasoline and diesel oil is levied within the price. After increasing the unit tax, the current price level of gasoline and diesel will not increase. Then we can interpret this clause from behind the numbers:
1. The National Development and Reform Commission acknowledged the social voice that "the price of refined oil can be lowered at present". Because after the fuel tax is levied, 0.8 yuan in the current gasoline price and 0.7 yuan in the diesel oil will be included in the tax category together with the previous consumption tax, and will no longer belong to oil companies. This also shows that the National Development and Reform Commission has agreed to reduce the 0.8 yuan/liter and 0.7 yuan/liter of gasoline and diesel respectively on the basis of the current oil price, which can still guarantee the reasonable profits of oil enterprises.
2. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) takes the opportunity of "fuel tax" to give oil companies extra subsidies. According to the calculation results, this figure is close to 654.38+055 billion yuan, which is equivalent to spending another 500 million yuan to "subsidize" oil companies every day under the arrangement of four parts, such as NDRC.
1October 26th 165438+ The the State Council meeting reviewed the reform plan of refined oil price and fuel tax, and decided to solicit opinions from the public. That is to say, the decision-making level has recognized the call of "the price of refined oil can be lowered at present" on June 26th, 20091day, and now the implementation time of fuel tax is announced, which is 65438+February 3rd1day, and the decision-making level is completely "default". Under the social call for rising oil prices, NDRC used fuel tax to solicit opinions to cover up the real demand for lowering the price of refined oil products, so that oil companies could get "policy profits" or "disguised subsidies" justifiably.
The specific calculation process is as follows:
1, ton/liter ratio of gasoline and diesel.
According to the refined oil price adjustment plan on June 20th, the national average retail benchmark price of gasoline and diesel was adjusted from 5980 yuan and 5520 yuan per ton to 6980 yuan and 6520 yuan respectively. The national average retail price after floating 8% is 7540 yuan and 7040 yuan per ton respectively; It is equivalent to an increase of 0.8 yuan and 0.92 yuan per liter respectively. The ex-factory price of aviation kerosene was adjusted from 5950 yuan per ton to 7450 yuan.
From this, the official ton/liter ratio of gasoline and diesel can be calculated (that is, how many liters are equivalent to one ton):
The ton/liter ratio of gasoline = (7540-5980 *1.08)/0.8 =1350.
Ton/liter ratio of diesel oil = (7040-5520 *1.08)/0.92 =1170.
2. Monthly consumption of gasoline and diesel.
According to the data published on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national gasoline output was 54 16700 tons and the diesel output was 1 1776800 tons in June, 5438.
For the data of 65438+February, refer to the data of 65438+ 10.
3. Policy profits of oil companies
According to the monthly consumption of gasoline and diesel oil and the ton/liter ratio of gasoline and diesel oil, the policy profit of oil enterprises is:
5416700 *1350 * 0.8+1776800 *170 * 0.7 =154.95 million.
It should be noted that this 65.438+0.5495 billion is not all the profits of oil companies, but only the "policy profits" enjoyed by oil companies within the scope of fuel tax. In addition, the "reasonable profit" of oil companies is a huge figure. Because the theoretical oil price of refined oil calculated according to the international crude oil price of $53 is 2.93 yuan/liter, and the gasoline price excluding "policy profit" and current fuel consumption tax is still as high as 5.25 yuan/liter, that is to say, the "reasonable profit" of oil companies is 2.32 yuan/liter at present, so it is not necessary to calculate the total profit.