Assuming that banks have the ability to predict the fluctuation trend of market interest rates, and the prediction is more accurate, bank asset-liability managers can take the initiative to use interest-sensitive fund allocation combination technology and use different gap strategies at different stages to obtain higher returns. The application of this model is shown in the following figure. In the upper part of the chart, the vertical axis represents the sensitive ratio of bank fund allocation, the horizontal axis represents time, and the curve represents the allocation state of interest rate sensitive funds. When predicting the rise of market interest rate, banks should actively create a positive gap in capital allocation, so that interest-sensitive assets are greater than interest-sensitive liabilities, that is, the sensitivity ratio is greater than 1, so that more assets can be re-priced according to the rising market interest rate and the net interest margin ratio can be expanded. Theoretically, when the interest rate rises to the peak, the positive gap of bank financing should be the largest, or the sensitivity ratio should be the highest. However, it is difficult to accurately predict the peak interest rate, and once the market interest rate drops from the peak, the rate of decline is very fast, so it is very likely that banks will have no time to operate in the opposite direction. Therefore, when the interest rate is in the peak area, banks should change to reverse operation, so that the sensitivity ratio gradually drops to 1, or return to the state of zero gap as much as possible. When interest rates begin to fall, banks should actively create a negative gap in capital allocation, so that floating interest rate liabilities are greater than floating interest rate assets, that is, the sensitivity ratio is less than 1. This will allow more liabilities to be re-priced according to the declining market interest rate, reduce costs and expand the net interest margin.
It must be emphasized that it is not easy for banks to expect to make profits by constantly changing the interest rate-sensitive funding gap (or financing gap). However, when encountering difficulties, human beings will always find ways to solve them, and so will the banking industry. First of all, the accuracy of interest rate forecasting is often not high, especially the short-term interest rate is more difficult to predict. Once the trend of real interest rate is contrary to the forecast, banks may suffer heavy losses. After a series of setbacks, some foreign commercial banks turned to long-term interval division to improve the accuracy of interest rate forecasting, that is, to make long-term interest rate forecasting as far as possible and link the interest rate fluctuation forecast with the economic cycle; In addition, even if the bank accurately predicts the change of interest rate, the flexibility of the bank in controlling and adjusting the interest rate-sensitive fund gap is limited. Because when most customers' predictions of interest rate trends are consistent with those of banks, customers' choices of financial products are just the opposite of those provided by banks. For example, when both parties predict that interest rates will rise, banks hope to increase floating-rate loans to make profits, but customers will require fixed-rate loans to lock in costs, thus leaving little room for banks to adjust capital allocation among existing customers. However, with the continuous expansion of financial derivatives and transactions, banks can solve this contradiction through futures trading in financial markets, forward interest rate agreements and interest rate swaps.