Some time ago, everyone was talking about the crazy rise of crude oil, and there were different opinions. One group firmly believes that the reduction in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and the other believes that the United States manipulated the financial market to raise oil prices to obtain wool from China's foreign exchange. Of course, those who do supply and demand analysis despise conspiracy theories and those who hold conspiracy theories do value analysis every day.

In the stock market, conspiracy theories and conspiracy theories are leek theory and value investment theory. Some people say that the China stock market is a place where the main force cuts retail investors, and there is no value investment. Some people retort that there is no such thing. Look at Gree Electric and Maotai, aren't they models of value investment?

So is the money market. Some people think that the future world will be decentralized and Bitcoin will have long-term investment value. Some people think that this is a game of cutting leeks by Li Xiaolai and others.

Conspiracy theory, conspiracy theory, is the voice that haunts every investor's ear every day.

Which school is right?

Cognitive science believes that our brains always want to be lazy and like to conquer the world with a set of theories and find the holy grail to solve problems.

This is the deal, and this is the knowledge payment.

"He earned 10 million, so that's it ..." "From 0 to 30,000 a month, he did10 things ..." "He can earn more than 10,000 a month after work ..." What a familiar topic and routine, but what really matters is not those things, but the background of the times and marketing logic. Also participate in the community, others have eaten enough bonuses paid for knowledge, and you have enough red envelopes paid for knowledge. Are you not working hard enough? It is you who listen to the chicken blood that praises the Great God every day, while others have mastered the logic and routines behind the Great God.

The world is complex, opinions are unimportant, positions are unimportant, and logic is important.

Investment, if you only stick to one point of view and choose a team to take sides, you will deal with this complex world in a silly and sweet way.

13, cotton dried up from 10000 to 30000 in a few months, which is a big kill on the financial disk.

16, black recovered the decline for several years, and the K line deviated again and again. After five waves, there will be five more, which is the supply-side reform of the country, and all other forces are Mao Mao Rain.

Soros foreign exchange war, Hong Kong exchange rate protection, A-share national team support, hot money sneak attack, white horse stocks are favored again.

Political games, macroeconomics, fundamental supply and demand, and financial disk forces will all affect market fluctuations, and the dominant forces will be different for a period of time. If you use a model to explain the market, you will be proud of the vernal equinox for a while and depressed for a while.

So many investors went to chicken soup to find comfort and feel the impermanence of the world, the ups and downs of life and the difficulty of trading.

This is our problem.

Always thinking about the "simple road", always envious of the master's mastery, but knowing that the ultimate simplicity comes from the ultimate complexity. Only by understanding the logic of the market here and now can we give up what is not suitable and only cook our own meals, so as to achieve a "simple road" of the moving average.

For ordinary investors, you should not be ready to wait and see. Save your breath and read more books.