Why did the spot in the coal period fall sharply?
From September to now, the spot price and futures price of thermal coal in China have experienced ups and downs, which is equivalent to riding a roller coaster and returning to the original point. Now, when the whole process of coal price fluctuation is restored, it is found that it is not the essential change of coal production and supply, but the panic caused by some market news, coupled with the joint speculation of some spot traders and futures traders who are interested in speculation, which finally leads to the phenomenon of two months of price fluctuation. There is an urgent need to combat and manage the hot money and speculative capital in the futures market in the future, otherwise it will lead to great instability in China's economic development.
In September, some negative news did appear in China's coal supply side, such as safety inspection, environmental protection control, coal management ticket, etc., which led to a significant decrease in the increase of domestic coal production; At the same time, due to China's closed-door management of Australian coal, other imported coal is affected by the global supply chain, and coal imports are slow. Generally speaking, the coal supply in China is decreasing. However, the market demand did not increase effectively at that time, so the overall problem was not very big, but the storage of thermal coal decreased.
However, due to the regional shortage of power supply in September, the panic atmosphere of so-called insufficient thermal coal power generation and storage was amplified, and coal prices have been rising since then; The imported Russian coal and Mongolian coal were affected by the epidemic, and the logistics volume was relatively slow, which began to trigger market rumors. At the same time, this year, cold air entered the northern part of China in advance, overlapping the coal reserves needed for urban heating. In this case, there is hoarding and snapping up in the spot market, while there is speculation on futures contracts in the futures market, which is actually due to the collusion between hot money and speculative funds in these two markets. These speculators made a lot of money.
After strong national control, the coal supply has increased steadily since June 165438+ 10. By165438+1October 14, the power plant has stored 65438+29 million tons of coal, which is expected to exceed 65438+40 million tons by the end of September, and now it can be used for 22 days, 9 days more than the end of September. However, the coal storage capacity of power plants in the three northeastern provinces exceeds140 thousand tons, and the available days reach 3 1 day. In fact, from September to 10, there was no coal to burn, that is, speculators hoarded, and futures and spot prices continued to rise.
In fact, in the process of the sharp rise and fall of various commodities this year, hot money and speculative funds are doing ghosts. The public security department and the CSRC should unite and use criminal means and economic punishment to carry out a double blow. The local market supervision department and the public security department are closely monitoring and cracking down on spot hoarding according to the Price Law, the Anti-monopoly Law and the Provisions on Administrative Penalties for Price Violations. The CSRC should also carry out accurate fixed-point strikes, administrative penalties and market records on the futures market.
We must continue to crack down on futures speculation and spot hoarding, maintain normal economic order and maintain steady economic progress.