?I am very familiar with the meaning of the signal
?If I accept it, something may go wrong
?Feeling very frustrated
< p> In this way, can you operate effectively according to the signal? Would you trust these in and out signals? On the contrary, if you adopt the following psychological strategy?The signal appears
?I am very familiar with the meaning of the signal
?I feel good.
In this case, will you operate based on the signal? Maybe! Therefore, Dr. Van Tap's advice is that if you want to operate on a certain trading signal, it can be effectively applied as long as you accept the latter's simple psychological strategy.
If there are two types of traders, one of them operates completely mechanically and the other relies entirely on his own intuition. Dr. Van Tap believes that what they have in common is that both types of people basically have a full understanding of the market and have developed their own operating models, and have even tested them over a long period of time. Although their ideas are different, the process of developing operational methods and testing them is the same. The second is that they all share the beliefs Dr. Van Tap mentioned earlier. In addition, they have clear goals in life and understand the need to go with the flow. Mechanical traders are reasoning characters. He used his imagination to construct models and was able to state them in precise terms. It is even accurate enough to computerize his design method and use the computer to help him make operational decisions. Intuitive traders usually try to understand what the market is doing. He believes that market changes keep pace with the times, and he must make operational decisions based on his own predictions. Long-term observation of the market often forms his inner hunch. In fact, this hunch is the result of thinking, or intuition. Therefore, he can make decisions easily.
We all sometimes have a premonition that the market will move in a certain direction. Although this kind of premonition often occurs, the probability of being correct is very high. Dr. Van Tap believes that this is a very common phenomenon because many people often tell him this, especially outstanding traders. When intuition strikes, most people are reluctant to explain the symbolic predictive power of hunches. Therefore it will not be accepted. The question of premonition is something Dr. Van Tap thinks he doesn't quite understand yet.
Dr. Van Tap believes that there are only two major obstacles to overcome in order to become an outstanding trader. One is the lack of strong will to engage in financial operations. Unless a person is willing to become an outstanding trader, no one can teach him. I have never seen a person become a successful trader who lacked the will to do so. The second difficulty is that a person never feels that his operation has made a mistake. This kind of person never admits that he has made a mistake, so his mistakes will be repeated over and over again.
The school of psychological analysis in securities and futures investment
The issue of securities and futures investment strategy has always been one of the core issues that the investment theory and investment practice circles in the United States and other developed countries are most concerned about. Almost all research activities in Western investment theory and investment practice circles are centered around the goal of developing, developing and verifying effective investment strategies. The reason why the issue of securities and futures investment strategy is so important is that it is a matter of life and death that affects whether investment institutions or individual investors can survive and develop in the fierce competition in the investment market.
Theoretical research on securities and futures investment strategy issues has gone through a development process of about a hundred years, from early relatively intuitive research methods to modern highly theoretical and systematic research methods. At present, the main schools of thought are: basic analysis school, academic analysis school, technical analysis school and psychological analysis school. Each of the above-mentioned major investment strategy schools has its own outstanding investment theorists and investment practitioners as representatives in the history of American finance, and based on this, they have developed professional investment institutions with different investment styles.
What needs to be pointed out in particular is that an important feature of the development of investment theory in the American financial community is the strong tendency toward practicality and institutionalization of investment theory. In other words, once a certain faction of investment strategy theory is formed and established, it will immediately enter the market in the form of institutional investment. Therefore, the different investment styles displayed by various investment theories can be seen from the setup of professional investment institutions in the United States. According to an analysis of the composition of the investment strategy schools of more than 8,000 professional investment funds in the United States, the investment theory of the basic analysis school is the mainstream school among American institutional investors; the investment theory of the academic analysis school also has a great influence on American institutional investors; The investment theories of the technical analysis school and the psychological analysis school that we are familiar with have less influence on American institutional investors.
We are all familiar with the basic analysis school and the technical analysis school. We can often see the theories of the academic analysis school in newspapers, periodicals and books. However, we rarely see the investment theory of the psychological analysis school. Although the investment psychological analysis school is one of the main schools in securities and futures investment theory, the mainstream theoretical school in securities and futures investment has been ignoring investment psychological analysis for many years. Investment psychology analysis is completely ignored in the teaching of investment majors or finance majors in American universities. Analysts and investment managers in the U.S. investment practice sector have also basically ignored research on investment psychology.
Although analysts often look at the stock market from the perspective of investor psychology, not many people actually make investments based on this. This is because investment analysts and investment theorists completely lack personal experience of the investment decision-making process or do not have a deep experience of the investment decision-making process. It is difficult to understand the importance of investment psychological analysis for correct investment decisions.
The few investors who attach great importance to investment psychological analysis are mainly senior investors. For example, Soros's reflex theory has a great element of psychological analysis. ABN AMRO launched an investment behavior opportunity fund early last year, which aims to target people's irrational behaviors when investing and use relatively novel quantitative analysis to try to profit from them. The fund mainly focuses on 50 of the 400 blue chip stocks in Europe, and changes the portfolio every month according to the market situation. According to data, the fund has performed well since its establishment. In May last year, the MSCI European index fell 43%, but the fund fell only 0.3%. From this, it seems that this investment method has its merits. In view of this, this article attempts to give a preliminary introduction to the school of psychological analysis and its investment theory for your reference.
For investors, psychological analysis is mainly divided into two directions, namely individual psychological analysis and market psychological analysis.
The goal of individual psychological analysis is to solve the psychological barriers of investors in the investment decision-making process. When investors have psychological barriers during the investment decision-making process, such as hesitation, impulsivity, fear, etc., the reason is often due to the conflict between a certain psychological desire and reality. Investors often find it difficult to understand this desire and its conflicts, so they often need the help of a psychologist. Without proper psychological analysis, it is often difficult for investors to find the real cause of their illness and then find a cure. This will undoubtedly ultimately hinder investors from succeeding in the investment market. Regarding the methods of individual psychological analysis, there are mainly Freudian psychoanalysis, Adrian psychoanalysis and Franco psychoanalysis. These three psychological analysis methods constitute the three mainstream schools of the Vienna School of psychological analysis, respectively revealing the possible causes of different levels and realms of individual psychological disorders in humans.