In the past few months, due to the rise in international oil prices, some developed countries have increased the use of biofuels and used corn instead of gasoline to make ethanol, resulting in a sharp increase in international corn prices. After the new grain was listed in June+10, 5438, Chinese corn traders began to compete for grain.

"the hand of the world" pushes up China's prices

Live at home, oil, salt, sauce, vinegar and tea. In the first half of this year, one thing that China people have been chanting is, why is the food so expensive? A very professional economic vocabulary: consumer price index CPI, has now become a popular vocabulary. Indeed, in the first half of the year, the food and grain consumed by China people increased considerably.

The hot weather in June and July last year was the off-season of pork sales, and the price of meat generally fell. This year, however, there was something unusual, and pork prices in China began to rise for the second time. According to the latest agricultural product price monitoring report of the Ministry of Agriculture of China, in June, the wholesale price of pork nationwide rose by 74.6% year-on-year.

What changes have pork prices brought to people's lives?

The prices of grain, oil, eggs, meat and other foods have generally increased throughout the country.

From June 5438 to May this year, China's food prices rose by 6.8% year-on-year. The main reason is the rise in food prices, which leads to the rise in the prices of meat, poultry, eggs, oil and other related foods. In the same period, China's grain price increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the price of meat and poultry and its products increased by 17.8%, and the price of fresh eggs increased by 26.5%.

At a farmer's market in Dalian, Liaoning Province, Liu Hongsheng, who went to buy pork, was bargaining with the merchants selling pork.

Reporter: "Does it matter, to eat meat?"

Liu Hongsheng: "Eat less. Look at 9 yuan (RMB, the same below) and eat too much. Workers will lose weight if they don't eat meat. "

Liu Hongsheng told reporters that the price of pork has increased by more than five yuan per catty in the past two months. To his annoyance, the price of pork in the afternoon actually increased by one yuan compared with the previous days.

Liu Hongsheng: "I want to eat this meat three times."

Liu Hongsheng calculated that the prices of pork, eggs, poultry and grain are all rising. Since the end of last year, pork has gone up by 10 yuan, eggs by more than 2 yuan, a barrel of soybean oil by 10 yuan, and even a kilo of corn and other grains by more than 1 yuan. After careful calculation, his family's living expenses will increase by more than 80 yuan every month.

Liu Hongsheng: "In the past, eggs at home weighed more than 20 kg a month, but now 10 kg, 8 kg."

Reporter: "Reduced by half?"

Liu Hongsheng: "It has been reduced by half."

During this time, Liu Hongsheng came before the vegetable market closed, hoping to buy something cheap. This afternoon, he originally planned to buy another barrel of soybean oil, but after asking the price, he decided not to buy it. The cost of living has increased, and Liu Hongsheng has to be careful. The reporter saw that there are also businesses in the market to calculate economic accounts. At seven o'clock in the afternoon, the closing time of the vegetable market has already passed, but there is still a lot of meat left on Liang Qin's pork stall. She decided to reduce the price of meat by one yuan.

Liang Qin: "Most people don't eat at all. They have no money to buy it. They can't afford it. That catty of meat is so small. "

Reporter: "Do you buy less meat?"

Liang Qin: "Few, very few."

Reporter: "How many pigs can I sell before?"

Liang Qin: "I used to sell four, five, five and six, but now I can sell two a day, and the rest can't be sold."

Liang Qin said that the price of meat has gone up, but her profit has dropped a lot.

Liang Qin: "If the price of pork goes up and the price of meat doesn't go up, can you make money?"

Reporter: "Isn't it all ten dollars now?"

Liang Qin: "Ten dollars, the price of our meat can't catch up with the price of pigs."

Reporter: "Is that pig worse?"

Liang Qin: "Yes."

Also worried about selling goods is Li Damei, a grain and oil merchant. During this time, the price of grain and oil rose so much that Li Damei couldn't believe it.

Li Damei: "We are also in a hurry. We cannot accept such an increase. How much was a bag of stick noodles before, 45,47, and now 47, how much? "

Reporter: "It has risen by 9 yuan."

As can be seen from Li Damei's acquisition record, since the beginning of this year, soybeans, corn and flour have all grown a lot, with soybean oil gaining the most and the purchase price being high. Li Damei had to follow the rising tide, and as a result, business was sluggish. Now there are no wholesalers, only the surrounding residents buy some rice and flour in dribs and drabs.

Li Damei: "Why is it so expensive? Can you afford it? That is to say, it can't be cheaper, I said it is expensive. "

Li Damei: "The retail price of salad oil is 4.3. If you sell it for 4.4 yuan, you will earn a dime.

The goods can't be sold, and the food that Li Damei bought some time ago has begun to grow worms.

Li Damei: "I don't know if there are any bugs at the bottom. Do you see it? People with bugs don't like it, and some bugs don't like it. "

Reporter: "Corn loves to eat bugs."

Li Damei: "Such beans love worms. Flour can't be put here Mao. "

What worries Li Damei is that if the price of grain and oil continues to rise, it will be difficult for her business to continue.

Li Damei: "It's already done, so keep it. How can you repair it? I can't do anything now. You can't do it if you don't do it. The booth fee has been given to someone else. Isn't it just a dry compensation if I don't do it? "

What drives food prices?

It's not just pork that is rising in price now. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the price of grain increased by 6.4% from June to May this year. As the foundation of food industry, grain has become the main force to promote this round of food price increase. So, what is the reason for pushing up food prices?

Xu, a corn trader, told us that in the months when the price of corn has been rising, the first thing he has to do every day is to send people to the corn producing areas to grab food sources.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company, said: "Those who have borrowed money in this place, including those who have money in their hands, go there to grab food. Look below, it is the original grain depot, useless grain depot, which has not been started for several years. Some people rent a garage and collect it there. "

Xu recalled that this scene first appeared in June 5438 +2006 10. At that time, because of the weather, the listing of corn was delayed for more than a month. In the past few months, due to the rise in international oil prices, some developed countries have greatly increased the use of biofuels and used corn instead of gasoline to make ethanol, which led to a sharp increase in international corn prices. After the new grain was listed in June 5438+ 10, domestic corn traders began to grab it.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Co., Ltd.: "Did George H.W. Bush also mention replacing this oil with a lot of ethanol?" This is definitely what the United States is doing now, including these straws and potatoes. They also use this for processing, but they still use a lot of corn. "

Reporter: "Use corn as ethanol?"

Xu Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group General Manager: "Well, it is converted into ethanol."

Xu learned from foreign customers that the US government plans to replace 65,438+00% of gasoline demand with ethanol. In 2000, the amount of corn used for ethanol production in the United States only accounted for 6%, reaching 14% in 2005, 20% in 2006 and 24% in 2007. He also learned that more than 65,438,000 ethanol plants have been built in the United States, and 42 are under construction. Soon after the news was announced, the price of corn rose again.

65438+ 10 started at the beginning of October, when it was at 1300, and the port was around 1320, which was a normal price. It has been used for less than a month, that is, 165438+ 10. How much has it increased? It has risen to 1480.

Reporter: "It rose by 100 yuan in a month."

The price trend of corn is optimistic, but at this time, corn is becoming more and more difficult to harvest. It turned out that farmers began to station grain and stopped selling it.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company: "After the rise, farmers are becoming more and more worried about selling."

Reporter: "Reluctant to sell?"

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company, said: "Hey, yes, it was delayed for a whole month and a half, just before listing. This led to the price of 1 1 month and 65438+February not coming down. "

Grain sources are in short supply, and traders try their best to buy corn. Xu told reporters that this is not just for business, but that house prices have risen too fast. If he steps slower, he will lose money.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group, said: "I have signed a contract with foreign investors. After signing the contract, the price is fixed. When I bought it again, the price went up again. "

In order to maintain customers, Manager Xu can only sell at a loss. In the following month, it became more and more difficult to harvest corn. Xu found that many places in China began to make ethanol and starch from corn on a large scale, which made Xu very anxious.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company, said: "Processing starch and sugar, you are like a big city in Jilin Province, with yellow farmers, including Celesta, and a few more ethanol and alcohols in Jilin. Deep processing will definitely grab a lot of food sources. "

After the Spring Festival, Xu heard another news. The relevant state departments have issued a policy to increase the export quota of corn. This year, the corn export quota increased by 1 10,000 tons. Xu, who has been in business for many years, predicts that corn prices will rise again.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company, said: "You also buy domestic trade and foreign trade, so the grain source is tight."

Just over a month later, the price of corn soared 100 yuan, which made Xu start to worry.

Xu Guo Zhong, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company: "That must be very worrying. Food prices must have risen too fast, and they are worried that prices will fall. "

However, the hot corn market did not stop because of Xu's worries. At this time, the bulk grain transport terminal in Dalian Port is busy, and businessmen are busy buying and transporting grain, and even the transportation price has increased a lot.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company, said: "Originally, 65 (RMB, the same below) 70 could have rented a big ship. Later, it rose to 120, 130, the highest 150, and some reached 170. "

Xu recalled that in late April, the price of corn was more than 600 yuan per ton higher than that of the same period last year. This soaring data made him a little uneasy, but before he slowed down the pace of acquisition, things turned around. At the beginning of May, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a policy to prohibit domestic enterprises from producing ethanol from corn, and the price of corn fell rapidly. He has thousands of tons of corn that Xu bought at a high price. Coupled with the contract losses some time ago, he suffered heavy losses.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group, said: "This loss is more than one billion yuan, from catching grain to now."

Now, in addition to waiting for the price to stabilize, Xu has no way to recover the loss.

Xu, general manager of Dalian Songyuan Enterprise Group Company, said: "The mood is definitely bad. If you don't lose money, these corn will lose money. "

It seems that fluctuations in the international market and changes in domestic policies are affecting the market price of corn. Corn dealers have a hard time in this round of fluctuations. In fact, just as the price of corn rose sharply a while ago, soybeans and soybean oil also joined the ranks of price increases, pushing up food prices.

In Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd., we met the general manager Wang Yumin. As soon as they met, he poured out his grievances to reporters.

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "At present, the profit of such a barrel of oil is less than fifty cents."

Reporter: "The profit of a barrel of oil is less than 50 cents?"

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "Yes, the profit of our factory in the first half of 2007 was130,000. The annual output value of our large enterprises is several billion, and the profit of100000 is too low. "

Wang Yumin said that the low profits of enterprises are mainly due to the increase in costs this year. Since the beginning of this year, the price of soybean has soared by more than 30%, and its cost has reached its limit. Wang Yumin told us that the soybean price increase was originally expected by him.

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "The main reason is that the domestic edible oil price rose to 8050 this year 1 month, originally it was about 7000, and suddenly it rose by 8050, which boosted the soybean price. Another main reason is the hype of the concepts of biodiesel and bioenergy, which should be a major reason for the rise of imported soybeans. "

As early as a few years ago, Wang Yumin learned that the industry of producing ethanol from corn in developed countries is developing day by day. For example, in some South American countries, corn has been planted in most of the land where soybeans were originally planted, and the price of soybeans has started to rise. Last year, due to the rise in international oil prices, many western countries began to produce biodiesel from soybean oil, which made the global soybean supply in short supply. In the first half of this year, the price of imported soybeans suddenly rose from 2800 to 3400 yuan.

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "The rise in oil prices should be what we expected, but the increase is so large that it is still beyond our expectation."

Wang Yumin calculated an account. Due to the high cost of planting, transporting and storing domestic soybeans, the production of soybean oil by using domestic soybeans is more than 200 yuan per ton than that by using imported soybeans. Since the factory was established, they have to import soybeans from the United States. Seeing the soaring price of imported soybeans, Wang Yumin sent people to the Northeast to purchase domestic soybeans for many times. What worries him, however, is that imported soybeans have occupied the China market at a cheap price because of the government-supported policies adopted by western developed countries. Buying a home in the northeast for a few days failed, and now Wang Yumin has almost no choice but to buy high-priced imported soybeans.

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "Foreign cross-grain merchants are also eyeing China. China's domestic soybeans have all been eaten, and you have to rely on imports. Therefore, there are also such factors in consciously speculating this price abroad. "

In the past six months, the price of imported soybeans has been rising, and Wang Yumin has to cut its output by half. Soybeans bought at high prices are not willing to use, and they are all stored in granaries.

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "The main reason is to suppress the market outlook. I am optimistic that the prices of edible oil and beans will rise in the afternoon. In this case, enterprises will have higher profit margins. "

Reporter: "If everyone hoards it, will the price go up again?"

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "Yes, so this is a vicious circle."

What worries Wang Yumin is that if the soybean price rises again, his enterprise will have no profit.

Reporter: "What will happen if it goes up again?"

Wang Yumin, manager of Dalian Hui Liang Soybean Technology Co., Ltd.: "That is to drive the price of downstream products to rise. Maybe the price of edible oil has risen sharply or the price of this feed has risen, and the price of feed has risen, followed by the price of eggs, pork and meat products. Everything in this industrial chain will increase in price, and this price increase will eventually be passed on to consumers. "

It is urgent to ensure national food security.

Since the beginning of this year, the agricultural products market, which has always been calm, has suddenly changed, either the price has risen sharply or fluctuated greatly. This kind of market not only caused fluctuations to processing trade enterprises, but also brought great impact to the futures market. Some people even call the futures market in the first half of the year the year of agricultural products, because agricultural products have been the most eye-catching varieties in the international and domestic futures markets since the beginning of the year.

Guoqiang Cheng, deputy director of the State Council Economic Development Center, has been paying attention to the development of agricultural industry for many years. As early as last year, the rapid increase in food prices caught his attention.

Guoqiang Cheng said: "It should be said that the biggest increase in grain is soybean. We compared it. In June this year, the price of soybean was about 30% higher than that of last year, and the price of corn was about 6% higher than that of last year. This is also a very important factor in the rise of food such as pigs this year, that is, the feed cost of pigs has risen rapidly. "

Soybean is the grain variety with the biggest price increase this time. Guoqiang Cheng found that the increase in soybean prices was not accidental. As early as a few years ago, driven by international prices, soybean prices have increased many times.

Guoqiang Cheng said: "The international soybean price has a similar fluctuation, which is much higher than last year. Therefore, the reason why we can drive our domestic prices is because about 60% of our total soybean demand structure depends on the international market. "

Guoqiang Cheng found that in recent years, China enterprises have become more and more dependent on imported soybeans. Before 1995, China was a net exporter of soybeans. 197 The annual soybean import exceeded 3.47 million tons for the first time. The import volume reached100000 tons in 2000 and 26.5 million tons in 2005. Probably in 2000. With more and more imported soybeans crossing the ocean, China's soybean industry chain is gradually controlled by four international grain merchants, which makes Guoqiang Cheng very worried.

Guoqiang Cheng said: "It is understandable to make proper use of foreign grain resources, fiber resources or oil resources, but the question is how to make use of international resources, such as soybeans. If multinational companies completely control this industrial chain from raw material supply to domestic processing, it should be said that once there is a trouble and price fluctuation, the impact will be very great.

With the increase of imports, the price of imported soybeans has also risen from 2,400 yuan per ton ten years ago to 3,500 yuan this year, an increase of 45.8%. Guoqiang Cheng found that the reason why domestic oil companies rely heavily on imported soybeans is that the governments of soybean producing countries such as the United States and Brazil subsidize soybeans, which leads to imported soybeans being cheaper than domestic soybeans by more than 200 yuan per ton. In addition, imported soybeans enjoy many preferential policies in taxation and other aspects. Comparatively speaking, domestic enterprises prefer to use imported soybeans.

Guoqiang Cheng said: "According to my research, many domestic enterprises have encountered many problems in the process of purchasing domestic soybeans, including tax issues, the bottom of VAT deduction, tax stamps, loans and so on. Because many of our purchasing policies of agricultural products are designed according to the system of state-owned grain enterprises in the past, processing plants will encounter many difficulties in purchasing soybeans, or our domestic purchasing and selling enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises will increase their costs and have a lot of inconvenience.

Dependence on imported soybeans leads to the inevitable price increase of soybeans. Guoqiang Cheng found that in this round of price increase, the increase of corn price was not accidental.

"The deep processing of corn in China has developed rapidly, especially in fuel and ethanol. It has developed very rapidly in recent years. I think it is also an important reason for the high price of corn this year, and it is running at a high level, showing signs of going higher. " Guoqiang Cheng found that in recent years, the number of ethanol processing plants has rapidly increased to nearly 1 10,000, and the annual consumption of corn grain sources exceeds 6.5438+million tons. In order to curb the trend that corn is widely used in deep processing, last year, the relevant state agencies began to ban China enterprises from using corn to produce ethanol, but after one year, the results were very little. "This may be inseparable from the worship of local GDP and the impulse of this kind of investment, because if this kind of deep processing project is developed locally, it may bring some local benefits to the local economic development in terms of taxation, so there is no concept of macro-control at the local level. On the contrary, some places also provide some supporting policies. "

Deep processing enterprises produce ethanol from corn, and the demand is huge. In the case that the market in China is in short supply, many enterprises turn to the international market, resulting in an upward trend in corn imports in recent years. Before 2003, China exported 8 million tons of corn every year. Since the approval of importing genetically modified corn in July 2005, domestic enterprises in China have ordered nearly 60,000 tons. It is estimated that this year's corn import volume is at least 15 times that of last year. The quietly increasing number of imported corn and the rising price make Guoqiang Cheng very worried: "If our biofuel industry develops on a large scale, that is, domestic raw materials can't be supplied to it, and many enterprises developing biofuels import raw materials from abroad, its vulnerability will be exposed. If he can control you, he can raise the price. I think the national food security has a great influence on the lives of ordinary people. This energy use should be controlled without delay. "

In the last two years, many people in China have this feeling. Everything is going up except wages. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, since 2002, the wages of employees in China have increased at an average annual rate of 12% for four consecutive years. Why does the statistics show that wages are rising, and everyone can't feel anything except that prices are rising? Obviously, the problem is not the price increase, but the income. Statistics show that in 2000, the per capita wage level of the highest industry in China was 2.63 times that of the lowest industry, and it expanded to 4.88 times in 2005, and the absolute gap also expanded from 8,436 yuan to 32,249 yuan. The income growth of some monopoly industries is too fast and too high, which conceals the fact that the wage growth of low-and middle-income people is slow. No wonder most people are so worried about the price increase of food.

Faced with rising food prices, the China government has taken many measures, including increasing subsidies for low-income families. However, subsidies can temporarily alleviate the urgent needs of these families, but they cannot fundamentally improve their living standards. Reasonable distribution mechanism is the key to solve this problem. Only by considering the income distribution for low-and middle-income families and letting the rising wages flow more to low-income people instead of a few monopoly industries can people feel the benefits of rising wages more clearly.