Since mid-August, the Fed has been sending tough policy signals to the outside world. Although raising interest rates will have an impact, its attitude against inflation has not changed. Therefore, US stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. Federal Reserve interest rate fund futures show that there is almost no suspense in raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September.
Does the Fed's interest rate hike in September mean anything?
First of all, the stock market will definitely be affected. Raising interest rates is a heavy negative for the stock market, because once the interest rate is raised, the funds entering the stock market may be reduced, or even the funds will flow out of the stock market, leading to a stock market crash.
There are listed companies and investors from all over the world in the American stock market, so the American stock market has a great influence on other stock markets in the world. Once the US stock market falls, the stock markets of many other countries will also fall, including China's A shares. In the A-share market, it is often said that it follows the decline and does not follow the rise, mainly referring to the US stocks.
In addition, after the Fed raises interest rates, it may also attract international capital invested in other countries to flow to the United States. Once a large amount of international capital escapes from the stock markets of these countries, it may also fall or even plummet.
If the stock market does not perform well, it will also be implicated in other investment and wealth management benefits, such as funds and bank wealth management.
Secondly, it will affect the foreign exchange rate. The Fed's interest rate hike will directly affect the exchange rate between the US dollar and other countries' currencies. Because the dollar is the most important currency in the world, this influence is also very extensive.
Specifically, if the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar will tend to appreciate against other countries' currencies. Because the Fed's interest rate hike will reduce the supply of US dollars, and the income from holding US dollar assets will increase, thus attracting more investors to buy US dollars, leading to an increase in market demand for US dollars. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand will naturally lead to the appreciation of the US dollar.
For us, once the US dollar appreciates, it means that the RMB depreciates against the US dollar, which will affect us more or less.
Third, it will affect the prices of commodities, including precious metals. One of the commodities most affected by the Fed's interest rate hike is gold. Overall, the Fed's interest rate hike is also bad for gold, which means that the price of gold may fall.
Because the most influential gold products in the world are all quoted in dollars. When the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar tends to appreciate, while gold quoted in dollars tends to depreciate and the price of gold tends to fall.
Except for gold, the prices of other representative commodities tend to fall under the influence of the Fed's interest rate hike.
The fluctuation of commodity prices will not only affect the investment income of many people, but also affect the living cost of ordinary people.