Editor's Note: Xinjiang plays an important role in China's cotton industry. Faced with the abnormal fluctuation of the cotton market this year, we can't help asking: who benefits and who suffers from the ups and downs of cotton prices? What role can Xinjiang cotton industry play in stabilizing the domestic cotton market? To this end, the reporter interviewed Zhang, senior analyst of cotton futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and director of cotton center of Wanda Futures Company, trying to answer the above questions.

This year, China's cotton industry has experienced a special year of cotton production reduction and cotton price ups and downs. Facing the shortage of cotton supply formed by the rapid development of textile industry, there has always been a debate in the cotton industry about whether to make up for it or to make up for it with production. Xinjiang cotton is a symbol of high-quality cotton in China, and Xinjiang cotton industry plays an important role in China cotton industry chain. So can Xinjiang play a greater role in the future development strategy of China cotton industry? To this end, the reporter interviewed Zhang, a senior cotton futures analyst of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and director of cotton R&D center of Wanda Futures Company, who has long adhered to Xinjiang.

Zhang believes that the continuous increase of cotton prices in the international and domestic markets in 20 10 cotton year has made Xinjiang cotton industry and cotton farmers the biggest regional beneficiaries, and the cotton industry has achieved the best operating benefits in history. In 20 10, the cotton output in Xinjiang was 2.6 million tons, accounting for 40% of the national 6.3 million tons, and accounting for 25 10/0.0% of the world. Cotton income accounts for 60% of the per capita income of farmers in Xinjiang; According to the average of 26,000 ~ 30,000 yuan per ton, the direct output value of cotton in Xinjiang reached 60 billion ~ 70 billion yuan, a historical record; The comprehensive income of cotton farmers in Xinjiang can increase by 50% ~ 80% year-on-year, but this must be achieved through hedging in the futures market.

Zhang said that during the period from 20 10 to 20 15, China will be a net importer of cotton and need to import a lot of cotton to make up for the consumption gap. He calculated this account for us: according to the balance of cotton production, supply and demand, the annual output of cotton in China will be 7 million to 9 million tons in 201~ 2015 years. With the annual growth of domestic consumption and textile exports, the gap between cotton supply and demand is 4 million to 5 million tons per year. Therefore, the country must attach importance to the safety of cotton industry.

Facing the problem of "making up for the shortage with production" or "making up for the shortage with advance", he thinks that it is more active to balance the production and sales of cotton, so Xinjiang must become a key cotton development area in China to make up for the growing gap between supply and demand of cotton. The average yield per mu of cotton in Xinjiang is 1.28 kg, and the corps is as high as 1.50 kg, which is much higher than the national average of 87 kg. In most major cotton producing areas in China, the planting area is decreasing year by year, and the comparative benefit of cotton planting is lower than other agricultural products. The task of filling the gap between cotton supply and demand will be mainly undertaken by Xinjiang.

Zhang has been engaged in cotton futures research for many years and knows the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang like the back of his hand. He said that Xinjiang is one of the best producing areas for hand-picked fine cotton, long-staple cotton, medium-long staple cotton, colored cotton and ecological cotton in China and even in the world. After more than ten years of sustained development, Xinjiang cotton industry has become one of the pillar industries of Xinjiang's national economic development.

Xinjiang has unique conditions for developing cotton industry. The land area of Xinjiang is 6.5438+0.66 million square kilometers. Among the only 65.438 billion mu of cultivated land, the cotton planting area is 24.06 million mu. Xinjiang's cotton industry has tens of billions of fixed assets and current assets, and has built an industrial system of cotton production, scientific research and management at the prefectural and corps levels. In recent years, the implementation of high-quality cotton base construction projects in Xinjiang and the popularization of high-density drip irrigation and precision planting technology have brought a revolution to the cotton industry in Xinjiang.

It is understood that from 2009 to 2010, 593 ginning factories in Xinjiang participated in the national cotton inspection reform, and 2.46 million tons of cotton were inspected, accounting for 50% and 7 1% of the country respectively. Zhang Wen's folk music viewpoint predicts that after 20 10, the number of instrumented large bales of cotton in Xinjiang public inspection will remain above 2.3 million tons, accounting for more than 95%, providing sufficient high-quality goods for participating in cotton futures business. In 20 1 1 ~ 20 15 years, Xinjiang can achieve cotton output of 2.6 million to 3 million tons each year, with a direct output value of 60 billion to 70 billion yuan.

However, it is worth noting that in the long-term development plan of national and Xinjiang cotton industry to be organized and implemented by the government of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the important tasks such as establishing the overall planning system of national cotton industry, establishing national and Xinjiang local cotton reserve bases and independent management channels, and alleviating the difficulties in cotton transportation in Xinjiang can be seen very clearly. Whether these tasks can be effectively implemented is the key to play the role of cotton in Xinjiang. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, Xinjiang will further optimize the agricultural industrial structure, unite mainland cotton logistics companies and large and medium-sized textile enterprises, radiate Xinjiang cotton business to cotton trading markets in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and other provinces, and form a storage, transportation and sales network of Xinjiang cotton in major cotton-selling provinces and cities such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong and Sichuan. In addition, the comprehensive management of cotton spot, futures and matching will also promote the efficient and stable development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.