Compound inflation means that among the factors that form inflation, the components are comprehensive and diverse, and its performance is the * * * interaction and integration effect of various pressure factors. In addition to the imported inflationary pressure, influenced by the deep-seated reasons of domestic macroeconomic operation and the distortion of economic policies, it also shows the characteristics of monetary, structural, cost-driven and rational expected inflation. Compound inflation management has become the primary problem of China's macroeconomic operation and the core goal of macroeconomic regulation and control.
(1) Monetary inflation is the basis of compound inflation
In response to the intrusion of the international financial crisis, in November 28, China urgently launched a macro-control policy framework combining a proactive fiscal policy with a moderately loose monetary policy. The central bank injected 17.65 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market within two years, which led to an excessive money supply in a short period of time, resulting in excessive liquidity and induced monetary inflation. By the end of 21, China's M2 stock has reached 72.58 trillion, which is close to 11 trillion US dollars according to the mid-year exchange rate, accounting for 182% of the current GDP scale of the year and 124% of the US M2 scale of 8,853.5 billion US dollars in the same period.
(II) Structural inflation is a concrete manifestation of compound inflationary pressure
At present, inflation in China is mainly manifested in the price increase of important agricultural products and key production or daily necessities. Judging from the futures price of grain crops, the fluctuation is not great. In food, the price increase of fresh food has become the main reason to push the total price increase of food to 7.2%, but it can be corrected in a short time through the market mechanism, and generally it will not be transmitted to important manufactured goods fields through the raw material market. Therefore, the current price increase of agricultural products in China still belongs to the problem of independent structure, and has not yet reached the level of causing overall inflation.
The rapid rise in housing prices is another important manifestation of China's current structural inflation. In 21, the price of housing in China rose to 4.5%, which provided 22% support for CPI to reach 3.2%. In the residential category, water, electricity, gas, decoration and other products account for more than 95% of the entire residential category. Considering that the National Development and Reform Commission has suspended the reform of rationalizing the energy and resource price system, it is expected that the above prices will remain basically stable in 211. Although it will bring some expansionary expenditure drive, it has not yet formed the risk of overall inflation.
(III) Cost-driven price increase is the main factor causing overall inflation risk
In the fourth quarter, the prices of important raw materials and intermediate products in China continued to rise rapidly, with an increase of more than 1%, which was basically consistent with the time and extent of price increase in the international market during the same period, except for fuel prices. This shows that the main cause of China's current cost-driven inflation comes from the change of international commodity prices, that is, the extended influence of imported inflation.
with the shift of the focus of domestic structural inflation, the defects of the resource and energy price system that have not been straightened out for a long time can easily become the next node of structural inflation, that is, structural inflation has become an important driving force to trigger the next round of cost-driven inflation, thus making China's current compound inflation evolve into comprehensive inflation. At present, domestic hot money has begun to enter the intermediate product market and the necessities market with relatively loose price control, and has begun to shift to the above-mentioned commodity market, which has promoted the rapid rise of commodity prices.
(4) The formation of * * * the same rational expectation magnifies the inflation effect
Unlike the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the public's perception of price increases became the same rational expectation of inflation in the first quarter of 21. By the fourth quarter, 73.9% of the respondents said that "the price is too high to accept", and 61.4% of them hold the expectation that the price will continue to rise. With the rapid rise of CPI, China's rational expectation of inflation began to take shape. Inflation brought by rational expectation will change people's consumption habits, preferences, investment choices and social Phillips curve in a short time, thus bringing new uncertainties to macro-control and people's lives.